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/ Published August 26, 2019
Linda ReynoldsSenator Linda Reynolds is the Australian Minister of Defence. This senior-leader perspective is derived from her 13 June 2019 speech at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s International Conference: War in 2025. For a full version of the speech, please visit the Australian Department of Defence website: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/lreynolds/speeches/aspi-international-conference-war-2025.
A New Great Game? Stephen F. BurgessRussia will continue to struggle to regain the level of influence in South Asia that its predecessor, the Soviet Union (USSR), had in the 1980s—before it retreated from Afghanistan and before the Central Asian republics gained independence, geographically separating the fledgling Russian Federation from the subcontinent. While Russia has been resurgent in parts of Eastern Europe and Central Asia and has succeeded in creating divisions among NATO members and degrading the Western alliance to a limited extent, the power structure in most of Asia has changed to such an extent that Russia’s reach and influence are limited and will remain so, especially in South Asia. Structural realism provides the principal explanation for a resurgent Russia’s inability to resume its previously dominant role in South Asia. The collapse of the USSR, detachment from South Asia, and the rapid growth of China and India are structural obstacles to renewed Russian hegemony. These dynamics were similar to those that faced Britain and France in the 1940s as they tried but failed to resume their hegemonic roles in Asia. In addition, Russia’s acceptance of a junior role in its strategic partnership with China in the 2010s has created another obstacle preventing Moscow from resuming the close partnership that it had with New Delhi in the 1970s and 1980s. Most importantly, the reentry of the US superpower into South Asia in 2001 and America’s forging of strategic partnerships with India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, especially using the military instrument of power has Russian preempted resurgence.
The Danger of Generalization Natalia Jevglevskaja and Jai GalliottMilitary operations involving unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), also known as “drones,” represent a complex sociotechnical system with the human element at its core. UAVs are “valuable assets in achieving a variety of strategic, operational, and tactical objectives, including ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] missions and kinetic-strike operations.” Because of their numerous battlefield advantages over manned systems, UAVs continue to proliferate on a global scale at an accelerated speed. The estimated market is expected to grow from around $6 billion in 2015 to about $12 billion in 2025. In 2018, the RAND Corporation, tasked to produce a report on how the proliferation of UAVs will impact US national security interests, concluded that these systems pose an incremental but growing threat to US and allied military operations, predicting that, in future conflicts, US forces will have to cope with adversaries equipped with different types and sizes of UAVs. This article is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award number FA9550-18-1-0181. Any opinions, finding, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Air Force.
Balancing Between Disarmament and Deterrence Sayuri RomeiFollowing the rapid succession of diplomatic developments between North Korea, South Korea, and the United States, Japan’s security position has become more delicate. Former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera stated in May 2018 that Japan is facing its toughest security environment since World War II and pledged to resolutely protect the nation’s territory. At the same time, China’s aggressive posture in the East and South China Seas and its rapidly expanding military budget pose constant concerns for Japan. Along with challenges, however, opportunities have also emerged for rethinking Japan’s nuclear security policy in this new era of post–Cold War uncertainty. This article will first examine how Japanese officials and experts have perceived the US security guarantee to their country and the nuclear component of extended deterrence. Subsequently, it will discuss the obstacles that Japan faces to balance the two goals of its nuclear policy. Lastly, it will study how Japan can contribute to the creation of a more favorable regional environment for nuclear disarmament and ensure that the disarmament side of the country’s policy does not remain neglected.
Understanding Indo-Pakistani Ties Using Treaty Networks Michael O. Slobodchikoff and Aakriti A. TandonThe number of ceasefire violations (CFV) between India and Pakistan has risen dramatically over the past few years. While the increased number of CFVs are a result of the heightened tensions between the two rivals, none of these CFVs has escalated to a full-blown militarized conflict or war between the nuclear-armed neighbors. An analysis of CFVs provides an incomplete picture of Indo-Pakistani relations. The bilateral treaties between India and Pakistan are also important indicators of the status of their relationship. This article argues that the increased levels of cooperation through treaties and the use of treaty nesting in their relationship may be serving a conflict management function by preventing CFVs from escalating into militarized conflict. Treaty nesting is a technique that states use to tie treaties to previous treaties, thus institutionalizing efforts at cooperation between states. Using network analysis, we examine all (N=44) bilateral treaties between India and Pakistan and analyze the relationships between those treaties and the impact of treaty nesting on Indo-Pakistani bilateral ties. We also analyze and discuss the most important treaties to the relationship. A continued attempt by India and Pakistan to tie future cooperation to prior successful treaties may serve to avoid potential disputes from escalating into militarized conflict.
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