Strategic Horizons --
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Abstract
As Seychelles approaches its 2025 elections, the nation faces a critical test of its democratic resilience and geopolitical agility. This article examines the interplay of domestic progress and external pressures shaping its future. While Seychelles has emerged as a democratic bright spot in Africa, with peaceful power transitions and institutional reforms, it remains burdened by the legacy of authoritarianism, economic vulnerabilities, and environmental risks. Strategically located in the Indo-Pacific, Seychelles finds itself at the center of great-power competition between China and India, navigating competing pressures to safeguard its sovereignty. The nation’s innovative strides in sustainable development, including the world’s first “blue bond,” and its improvements in transparency demonstrate its potential, yet these gains remain fragile. Seychelles offers a powerful example of small-state agency, showcasing the complex interplay of democracy, development, and geopolitics. Its trajectory will shape not only its future but also the regional balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
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In the autumn of 2025, the Republic of Seychelles—a shimmering constellation of 115 islands scattered across the azure expanse of the Western Indian Ocean—will once again command the world’s attention as it embarks upon the latest chapter of its democratic experiment. With a population scarcely larger than a midsized American town, this diminutive nation nevertheless exerts an influence far beyond its size, standing as a critical node in the shifting tectonics of global diplomacy, maritime security, and environmental stewardship. Yet beneath the tranquil surface of its postcard-perfect shores, the stakes of this election loom large. Seychelles stands at a crossroads: one path leading toward the consolidation of democratic gains, the other toward the ever-present perils of stagnation, backsliding, and external manipulation.
At the helm, seeking a second term, is President Wavel Ramkalawan—priest-turned-politician, a man whose unlikely ascendance in 2020 ended more than four decades of United Seychelles rule. His victory, after six previous attempts, was not merely a personal triumph; it was a watershed moment, an emphatic break from the iron-fisted legacy of Albert René, whose 1977 coup transformed Seychelles into a socialist redoubt where patronage and repression underwrote a long reign of one-party rule. That era may have formally ended, but its ghost lingers, and for Ramkalawan, the 2025 election represents more than a contest for re-election—it is an existential test of whether Seychelles’ still-fragile democracy has the resilience to endure in an era of rising global turbulence.
Standing in opposition is Dr. Patrick Herminie, the United Seychelles candidate and an establishment stalwart who served as Speaker of the National Assembly from 2007 to 2016. Both men confront a daunting economic paradox: Seychelles enjoys the highest per capita income in Africa, an enviable USD 17,000, yet nearly a quarter of its citizens live in poverty. This yawning gap between national prosperity and individual hardship underscores the central challenge facing the next administration—how to expand the middle class, reduce economic stratification, and ensure that the fruits of growth are distributed equitably rather than pooling in the hands of a privileged few.
The 2025 elections unfold against the backdrop of an increasingly fraught geopolitical chessboard, where Seychelles—by virtue of geography rather than ambition—finds itself a prized square in the Indo-Pacific contest. Nestled at the maritime crossroads of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, this archipelagic nation is more than a tropical idyll; it is a strategic fulcrum in the escalating rivalry between China and India, with the United States now reasserting its presence in the region.
President Ramkalawan’s decision to shelve the proposed Indian naval base on Assumption Island was not merely an exercise in environmental prudence, as some claim—it was a calculated act of strategic ambiguity, a maneuver to keep Seychelles from being drawn too deeply into the gravitational pull of any one great power. Yet avoiding entanglement is easier said than done.
China, wielding its signature checkbook diplomacy, has intensified its courtship of Seychelles, mirroring its broader outreach across the Indian Ocean, from the Maldives to Mauritius. In September 2024, Ramkalawan met with Xi Jinping at the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, where both leaders announced the elevation of bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. The United States, recognizing the shifting tides, has reentered the fray, reopening its embassy in Victoria in June 2023 after a 27-year absence—a signal that Washington, too, is unwilling to cede influence in this critical maritime domain. Then-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken proclaimed, “The time is right to elevate the relationship so that together we can better address shared challenges and take advantage of mutually beneficial opportunities. . . . Our joint pursuit of peace, democracy, and prosperity will be a beacon across Africa and the Indian Ocean region.”
Seychelles faces not just the challenge of managing competing overtures but of doing so without compromising its sovereignty. In an era where influence is wielded through ports and patrol boats rather than tanks and trenches, the nation must tread a diplomatic tightrope—leveraging its strategic position while resisting the embrace of any single patron. The question remains: Can Seychelles sustain this delicate balance, or will it, like so many small states before it, be swept into the tides of history?
Though Seychelles has projected an image of diplomatic autonomy, small-state agency is often more constrained than it appears. Unlike great powers that can dictate terms, Seychelles operates within structural constraints—economic dependencies, security vulnerabilities, and diplomatic pressures that limit its independence.
One clear example is its economic reliance on external investment and trade, particularly in tourism and fisheries. As China expands its financial footprint across the Indian Ocean, Seychelles must manage these ties carefully to avoid overdependence on Chinese capital. Similarly, India’s historical security relationship with Seychelles exerts pressure to align with New Delhi’s regional objectives, particularly in maritime security. The reopening of the US embassy in Victoria in 2023 further underscores the reality that, despite efforts at strategic ambiguity, Seychelles remains within a sphere of great-power interest that may ultimately restrict its choices.
This predicament is not unique to Seychelles. Other small Indo-Pacific states, such as the Maldives and Mauritius, grapple with similar challenges. The Maldives has oscillated between Indian and Chinese influence, with shifts in political leadership often dictating foreign policy alignment. Mauritius, by contrast, has pursued a strategy of legal and institutional fortification, using international law and regional economic diversification to avoid dependence on any single patron. Compared to these cases, Seychelles’ approach reflects a cautious but pragmatic hedging strategy—eschewing direct military alignments while selectively engaging external actors on trade, security, and climate resilience.
Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of Seychelles’ strategy will depend on whether it can institutionalize economic diversification and strengthen security partnerships. Only by reducing its structural vulnerabilities can it preserve the diplomatic flexibility needed to navigate the intensifying competition for influence in the Indian Ocean.
Seychelles’ recent political trajectory has been defined, in no small part, by a concerted push toward transparency—an effort to exorcise the lingering specters of cronyism and corruption that once plagued its institutions. At the vanguard of this campaign stands the Anti-Corruption Commission of Seychelles (ACCS), a body established in 2016 and fortified with enhanced investigative powers in 2019. Its mandate is not merely procedural but existential, as it seeks to dismantle the entrenched networks of patronage that once functioned as the hidden gears of governance.
The dividends of reform have not gone unnoticed. Seychelles’ removal from the European Union’s list of foreign tax havens in 2021 signaled compliance with global financial standards, an unmistakable marker of its evolving credibility. Its ascendant position on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index—ranking 20th globally and highest in Africa—serves as both an achievement and a warning: progress, once gained, is never permanent.
A freer press has emerged as another pillar of this transformation. The 2021 decriminalization of defamation marked a crucial step in safeguarding journalistic independence, a move reinforced by the proliferation of private media outlets. The result? Seychelles now holds the highest ranking in Africa on the Varieties of Democracy global press freedom index. But such gains are fragile, perpetually vulnerable to encroachments of state power and the temptations of political convenience. Whether these reforms will endure or be relegated to the annals of fleeting ambition remains an open question—one that will be answered not by rhetoric, but by the unrelenting test of time.
The Seychelles Defence Forces, a small but professional security force, have been granted the authority to enforce domestic law, a move that has sparked controversy and legal challenges. Tasked with patrolling a sprawling exclusive economic zone—one million square kilometers of oceanic expanse—their mission has remained clear: disrupt piracy, dismantle illicit trafficking networks, and safeguard the nation's vital fisheries from foreign exploitation.
While these expanded duties enhance Seychelles’ security capabilities, they also raise concerns about the militarization of civil governance and the potential erosion of democratic norms. Historically, small states that have expanded military authority into domestic law enforcement—such as Fiji and Sri Lanka—have encountered difficulties in maintaining judicial oversight and civilian control. Seychelles’ legal and institutional frameworks will be critical in determining whether this shift strengthens state resilience or introduces risks of political overreach.
As of now, Seychelles lacks a dedicated civilian review board or parliamentary commission with explicit authority to oversee the SDF’s domestic operations. Without such mechanisms, there is a risk that the boundaries between military and police functions will continue to blur, particularly in times of political uncertainty. Moving forward, ensuring judicial oversight and reinforcing democratic accountability will be essential to prevent potential abuses and to preserve the civilian character of governance.
The broader Indo-Pacific context underscores why this issue is pressing. Across the region, military-backed governance structures—such as in Myanmar and Thailand—have demonstrated how the entrenchment of security forces in domestic politics can lead to democratic regression. While Seychelles does not face the same structural risks as these larger states, its ability to maintain a clear separation between military and civil governance will serve as a key test of its democratic resilience.
The blue economy is not merely an economic strategy for Seychelles; it is the very lifeblood of the nation, with tourism and fisheries forming its twin pillars of prosperity. Yet this maritime dependence comes with acute vulnerabilities. The archipelago remains at the mercy of external shocks—be they economic, geopolitical, or climatic. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and the ever-looming specter of extreme weather events are not distant threats but present realities, demanding a government that can reconcile sustainability with economic growth.
As Seychelles hurtles toward a fiercely contested 2025 election, the stakes could not be higher. At issue is not just the endurance of its democratic institutions but the country’s ability to expand economic opportunity while fending off the pressures of great-power competition. The world will be watching. For the Indo-Pacific, the outcome will serve as both a barometer and a bellwether—revealing whether small states can assert their sovereignty in an era of rising geopolitical turbulence.
A Nation Reckoning with Its Past
The shadow of René’s authoritarian legacy looms large over Seychelles, a sobering reminder of how power, once entrenched, can calcify into an enduring menace for institutions and individual freedoms alike. René’s four-decade rule—anchored by a 1977 coup and perpetuated through a tightly controlled apparatus of patronage, repression, and political theater—left deep scars on the nation’s collective psyche. While René himself passed away in 2019, the ghosts of his regime have resurfaced with striking clarity in the truth and reconciliation process launched in 2018.
The revelations unearthed during this national reckoning are harrowing. Accounts of torture, political assassinations, and systematic corruption laid bare the moral and institutional decay that defined the René era. The 2023 report by the truth commission did not merely catalogue these atrocities—it demanded reparations, both symbolic and material, as a pathway toward national healing. These recommendations underscore a painful reality: while Seychelles has transitioned from its authoritarian past, it remains haunted by unresolved grievances and unpunished crimes. Reconciliation may be the goal, but justice, in its fullest sense, is still a work in progress. The nation may march forward, but its ghosts march with it.
The reckoning with Seychelles’ past has not merely unearthed the crimes of an era—it has exposed the enduring tendrils of René-era corruption, still coiled around the nation’s institutions. At the center of this unraveling is an ongoing investigation into a sprawling USD 50–million money laundering scheme implicating high-profile figures, chief among them Sarah Zarqhani René, the late president’s widow. Yet this is no ordinary financial scandal. The probe has uncovered more than misappropriated funds; it has also revealed a clandestine cache of weapons, a stark reminder that René’s regime was not merely corrupt but militarized—fortified against dissent by means both financial and forceful.
These cases, now making their way through the judiciary, are emblematic of Seychelles’ delicate balancing act: a nation determined to fortify the rule of law while still exorcising the institutional ghosts of its authoritarian past. The trials will not merely adjudicate individual guilt—they will serve as a barometer of the country’s commitment to justice and democratic integrity. The question remains: Can a nation that once tolerated impunity now summon the resolve to hold its past to account?
Seychelles’ commitment to transparency and anti-corruption has become more than a policy objective—it is the linchpin of its political evolution, a defining test of its democratic resilience. At the vanguard of this crusade stands the Anti-Corruption Commission of Seychelles (ACCS), an institution forged in 2016 and reinforced through pivotal reforms in 2019. Armed with investigative authority and an unambiguous mandate, the ACCS has waged an unrelenting campaign against entrenched cronyism, wielding public education, rigorous oversight, and high-profile prosecutions to dismantle the vestiges of impunity that once permeated the nation’s governance.
A crowning achievement came in 2021, when Seychelles secured its removal from the European Union’s list of foreign tax havens—an outcome that was neither preordained nor perfunctory. This milestone was the fruit of deliberate legislative recalibration, aligning Seychelles with international financial norms and safeguarding its standing among global institutions. The message was unmistakable: Seychelles would no longer be a sanctuary for opaque dealings but a beacon of accountability in a region where such virtues are often in short supply.
A pivotal milestone came in 2021 when Seychelles was removed from the European Union’s list of foreign tax havens. This was no mere bureaucratic box-checking exercise—it was a declaration of intent, a decisive move to shed the vestiges of opacity and align with the gold standard of international financial governance. Key legislative overhauls ensured that Seychelles would no longer be perceived as a haven for murky dealings but rather as a credible, rules-based financial jurisdiction. The implications were profound, bolstering investor confidence and reinforcing the nation’s standing among global financial institutions.
This commitment to integrity is further reflected in Seychelles’ impressive performance on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. With a score of 71, it ranks 20th out of 180 nations—an extraordinary feat for any country, let alone one in a region where corruption too often reigns unchecked. More than just Africa’s least corrupt nation, Seychelles has positioned itself as a model of accountability. But reputations, once earned, must be defended. This ranking is not an endpoint but a challenge—a call to vigilance against complacency and backsliding in an era where democratic erosion is an all-too-common affliction.
Seychelles’ accomplishments are more than statistical victories; they carry profound symbolic weight. In a world where governance failures often dominate the narrative, Seychelles provides a counterpoint—a small state proving that size need not equate to vulnerability when institutions are fortified by integrity. Its progress stands as both inspiration and admonition, demonstrating that transparency, far from being an abstract ideal, is a practical necessity for resilience, sovereignty, and prosperity. For a nation navigating the crosscurrents of geopolitics, Seychelles’ anti-corruption measures are more than just an internal imperative—they are a cornerstone of its credibility and strength on the international stage.
Yet such progress is not self-sustaining. These gains are testament to the resilience of democratic institutions, but they remain vulnerable to erosion in the absence of vigilant leadership and a strong civil society. Transparency is not a milestone but a constant battle, one that requires unrelenting commitment from both policymakers and the public. For Seychelles, the fight against corruption and impunity is not just about moral justice; it is about securing the foundations of democracy itself. Without continued reform, the risk of backsliding into complacency—or worse, regression—remains ever-present. As the nation marches toward its 2025 elections, this tension between progress and fragility will shape its future, both as a democracy and as a model for the broader region.
Security in a Volatile Region
Seychelles’ strategic position in the Western Indian Ocean places it at the fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific, a region increasingly shaped by the great-power rivalry between China and India. To New Delhi, Seychelles represents a linchpin in its efforts to secure the Indian Ocean from Beijing’s expanding maritime footprint. India’s ambitions to establish a naval facility on Assumption Island—an agreement negotiated under a previous Seychellois government—reflect its broader strategy to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its encroachments into South Asia’s maritime periphery. Yet this proposal, which promised both security and economic benefits, was halted by the Ramkalawan administration amid domestic protests and environmental concerns. The move signaled not only a recalibration of Seychelles’ foreign policy but also a firm reminder of the importance of sovereignty for a small nation navigating between larger powers.
Meanwhile, China has methodically courted Seychelles and its regional neighbors—Comoros, Madagascar, Maldives, and Mauritius—through a blend of economic diplomacy and infrastructure investment. With its Maritime Silk Road initiative, Beijing has positioned itself as a benefactor to these small island states, offering development loans, port expansions, and access to lucrative Chinese markets. But these overtures come at a price: dependency. For Seychelles, as with others in the region, China’s largesse risks tethering the nation to Beijing’s geostrategic ambitions, raising concerns about the erosion of political autonomy under the guise of economic partnership.
For Seychelles, these competing offers of support are both a blessing and a burden. The nation’s economic lifeblood depends on foreign investment to sustain its blue economy—driven by tourism, fisheries, and environmental conservation—yet the risk of becoming a pawn in a broader geopolitical chess match is ever-present. Navigating this delicate balance requires deft statecraft and an unrelenting focus on national priorities, particularly as external pressures mount.
The Seychelles Defence Forces (SDF) play a crucial role in anchoring the nation’s security and safeguarding its sovereignty in this complex environment. Though modest in size, with a 300-strong coast guard and air wing, the SDF punches above its weight in securing Seychelles’ vast exclusive economic zone, an area spanning over one million square kilometers. Over the years, the SDF has emerged as a regional leader in combating piracy, disrupting human trafficking networks, and addressing unsanctioned fishing operations. Its reputation as a professional and well-trained force underscores the vital role it plays in maintaining stability not just for Seychelles but for the region at large.
Yet recent developments have raised questions about the SDF’s evolving mandate. Legislation passed in 2022 granting the military domestic policing powers blurred the lines between civil and military authority, prompting human rights groups to warn of potential abuses and threats to due process. The move reflects a broader tension faced by small states reliant on security forces to manage both external threats and internal stability: how to ensure accountability while preserving the operational flexibility necessary to respond to crises. For Seychelles, this is no theoretical exercise but a real and urgent challenge, especially as it seeks to bolster its institutions in an era of growing geopolitical complexity.
The SDF’s expanded role includes an array of responsibilities beyond traditional defense. The force is actively involved in maritime surveillance, ensuring the protection of Seychelles’ exclusive economic zone from illegal fishing and other unauthorized activities. This involves close collaboration with regional and international partners, sharing intelligence and conducting joint operations to safeguard the nation’s maritime resources.
In addition, the SDF has taken a proactive stance in humanitarian and disaster response. Given Seychelles’ vulnerability to natural disasters such as cyclones and floods, the SDF is tasked with providing rapid response and relief efforts, demonstrating its versatility and importance in safeguarding both human security and national resilience.
However, the legislation granting the SDF domestic policing powers has sparked a contentious debate. Critics argue that such measures could lead to the militarization of civil society, eroding the democratic principles that Seychelles has worked hard to establish. The concerns are not unfounded, as the line between military and police duties becomes increasingly blurred, raising the potential for human rights violations and undermining public trust.
Balancing these expanded duties with the need for strict accountability measures is critical. Efforts to enhance the SDF’s transparency and oversight mechanisms are essential to prevent abuses of power and ensure that the force remains a pillar of stability rather than a source of contention. This includes regular audits, parliamentary scrutiny, and robust channels for citizen feedback.
As Seychelles navigates this complex security landscape, the SDF’s ability to adapt while upholding the rule of law will be pivotal. The force’s evolution reflects broader trends in small state security dynamics, where traditional roles are being redefined to meet contemporary challenges. In this regard, Seychelles serves as a microcosm of the broader Indo-Pacific region, where the interplay of defense, governance, and development shapes the trajectory of nations caught in the crosscurrents of geopolitical competition.
The choices Seychelles makes today will reverberate far beyond its shores. As a small nation at the crossroads of global trade routes and strategic ambitions, its ability to maintain an independent and balanced foreign policy will serve as a bellwether for the resilience of small states in the Indo-Pacific. Seychelles’ leaders must tread a narrow path, one that safeguards sovereignty, promotes sustainable development, and resists the gravitational pull of great-power rivalries. How it negotiates this path will determine not just its future but also its legacy as a steward of stability and agency in an increasingly contested region.
The Blue Economy: Promise and Peril
Seychelles’ economy is inseparably tied to the vast maritime environment that surrounds it, a blessing and a vulnerability in equal measure. Tourism, the crown jewel of the nation’s economic portfolio, contributes a staggering 46 percent of GDP, drawing visitors to its pristine beaches, coral reefs, and unique biodiversity. Alongside it, the fisheries sector forms a vital pillar of economic activity, supporting livelihoods and providing a crucial export commodity. Together, these industries underscore the country’s reliance on its natural resources—a double-edged sword that exposes Seychelles to external shocks beyond its control. The COVID-19 pandemic laid this fragility bare, as the collapse of international travel sent ripples through the tourism-dependent economy, leaving businesses shuttered and thousands out of work.
Adding to these vulnerabilities is the existential threat posed by climate change, which looms over Seychelles like a slow-moving yet unstoppable tide. Rising sea levels threaten to submerge critical infrastructure and erode the very coastlines that sustain its tourism industry. Intensifying cyclones and erratic monsoon patterns jeopardize fisheries and agricultural output, while warming seas risk decimating coral reefs, the keystone of the island’s marine ecosystems. For Seychelles, climate change is not a theoretical challenge—it is a present and pervasive crisis that endangers both the environment and the economic lifeblood it sustains. As President Ramkalawan stated in his 2024 address to the UN General Assembly:
Climate change remains the foremost challenge facing humanity, and failure to address its effects will devastate current and future generations. As a small island state, Seychelles understands what it means to be vulnerable. A vulnerability that cannot be ignored in the future we see for ourselves. We are on the front lines of the climate crisis, which poses irreversible threats to our people, our economy, and our way of life. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and the degradation of our oceans are stark reminders of the urgent need for global action on climate change. We have all made commitments, pledges and promises to achieve large-scale reductions of emissions to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. To boost adaptation to deal with extreme weather disasters and build resilience to address future impacts. But words are nothing without deeds and we have to act urgently, in unity, to make the necessary transition to a more sustainable future.
Under President Ramkalawan’s leadership, Seychelles has emerged as a pioneer in sustainable development, seeking to transform its vulnerabilities into opportunities for innovation. The country’s groundbreaking issuance of the world’s first “blue bond” in 2018 marked a bold attempt to leverage international finance for marine conservation. This USD 15–million bond mobilized funds for sustainable fisheries and ocean management, signaling Seychelles’ commitment to aligning economic growth with environmental stewardship. Beyond the blue bond, Seychelles has championed the creation of marine protected areas, pledging to safeguard 30 percent of its exclusive economic zone—an area roughly the size of France.
Yet, for all its ambition, progress remains uneven and the road ahead fraught with challenges. While Seychelles has successfully marketed itself as a global leader in the blue economy, questions linger about whether these initiatives can be scaled to address the systemic vulnerabilities of a small island economy. The country’s dependence on external financing and technical expertise underscores the inherent limitations of its domestic capacity, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. Moreover, the benefits of these initiatives have not always been equitably distributed, with local fishing communities and small businesses often feeling sidelined in favor of larger, more visible conservation projects.
Seychelles’ path forward demands both pragmatism and vision. To truly secure its future, the nation must double down on efforts to diversify its economy, reduce reliance on tourism, and build resilience against climate shocks. This includes investing in renewable energy, strengthening disaster preparedness, and fostering a more inclusive blue economy that prioritizes the needs of its citizens alongside international commitments. At the same time, Seychelles must remain an outspoken advocate on the global stage, leveraging its moral authority as a small island state to press for greater climate action from major emitters and financial support for vulnerable nations.
The stakes could not be higher. For Seychelles, the interplay of economic dependency and environmental fragility is a microcosm of the challenges facing small island nations worldwide. Its success—or failure—will serve as a litmus test for whether such nations can chart a sustainable path in the face of mounting global challenges. Ramkalawan’s leadership has set the stage, but the resilience and ingenuity of the Seychellois people will ultimately determine whether this nation can turn the tides in its favor.
The 2025 Election: A Bellwether for Democracy
As Seychellois voters prepare to head to the polls in 2025, their decision will not merely elect a leader; it will serve as a barometer for the country’s democratic resilience. This small island nation, home to just over 122,000 citizens, has become an unlikely beacon of democratic progress in a region and continent where autocratic backsliding and electoral manipulation too often dominate headlines. Yet the bright glow of Seychelles’ democracy is neither inevitable nor self-sustaining. Its continued success hinges on the vitality of its institutions, the strength of its civil society, and the commitment of its leaders to uphold transparency and accountability—qualities that must be actively cultivated and defended against complacency or external interference.
The outcome of the 2025 election will shape Seychelles’ trajectory not only domestically but also in its geopolitical and economic positioning. If President Ramkalawan secures a second term, his administration is likely to continue emphasizing transparency reforms and international credibility, maintaining Seychelles’ diplomatic hedging strategy. However, his firm stance on issues such as rejecting the Indian naval base on Assumption Island suggests that further pressure from regional powers is inevitable. How his administration responds—whether by doubling down on non-alignment or seeking deeper security partnerships with the US or EU—will determine Seychelles' ability to maintain its sovereignty.
Conversely, if the opposition, led by United Seychelles’ candidate Dr. Herminie, returns to power, the country may witness a recalibration of foreign policy. Given United Seychelles’ historical ties to India and China, a renewed engagement with these powers—perhaps through reviving stalled infrastructure or security agreements—could shift the balance in Seychelles’ external relations. Economic policies may also take a different turn, with potential adjustments to investment regulations and development priorities, particularly in the tourism and fisheries sectors.
Beyond electoral politics, Seychelles faces long-term structural challenges that will persist regardless of leadership. The nation’s economic dependence on tourism and fisheries remains a key vulnerability, particularly in the face of climate change and external shocks. Expanding economic diversification efforts—through renewable energy investment, financial services, or digital industries—will be critical in the coming decade. Furthermore, the balancing act between China, India, and the US is not a short-term challenge but a persistent reality, one that will require institutionalized diplomatic strategies rather than ad-hoc maneuvering.
Ultimately, the stakes of the 2025 election extend beyond the Seychellois archipelago. The choices Seychelles makes will not only determine its domestic governance but also serve as a case study for small states navigating great-power rivalry. Whether it can maintain its democratic resilience, economic stability, and strategic autonomy in an era of heightened geopolitical competition will offer valuable insights for other Indo-Pacific nations facing similar dilemmas.
The 2025 election arrives at a pivotal moment for Seychelles, as the nation balances domestic reforms with its unique position in the broader Indo-Pacific, a region increasingly shaped by great-power rivalry. For the Seychellois, this election represents more than a contest of personalities or party platforms; it is a referendum on the country’s ability to transcend its historical scars and deepen the democratic norms that have taken root over the last three decades. The peaceful transfer of power in 2020, following Wavel Ramkalawan’s historic victory, was a testament to Seychelles’ political maturity. The challenge now is to consolidate these gains, ensuring that democracy remains not just an aspiration but an enduring reality.
Seychelles’ journey holds broader significance for the Indo-Pacific, a theater where small states like Seychelles navigate the shifting tectonics of great-power competition. The nation’s ability to assert its sovereignty while deftly managing the competing pressures of China and India is a masterclass in small-state agency. Seychelles’ refusal to allow itself to become a pawn in Beijing’s Maritime Silk Road strategy or New Delhi’s counterbalancing efforts speaks to its determination to prioritize national interests over external agendas. Yet this balancing act is fraught with risks, as economic dependencies and security imperatives create vulnerabilities that great powers are all too willing to exploit.
In this context, Seychelles’ trajectory offers vital lessons for other small nations confronting similar challenges. It underscores the importance of cultivating resilience—economic, political, and social—as a shield against external manipulation. Robust institutions, empowered citizens, and a commitment to the rule of law form the backbone of this resilience, enabling small states to navigate the pressures of globalization and geopolitics without sacrificing their autonomy.
But the stakes extend beyond Seychelles’ borders. The ability of this island nation to maintain its sovereignty, strengthen its democratic foundations, and balance external pressures will resonate throughout the Indo-Pacific. As the region becomes increasingly central to global trade and security, the success or failure of small states like Seychelles will shape not only their futures but also the balance of power in one of the world’s most strategically vital arenas. Seychelles’ example could inspire other small nations to chart their own independent courses, pushing back against the notion that size inherently dictates influence.
At this crossroads of history and geography, Seychelles stands as a symbol of the possibilities and challenges of democratic governance in the twenty-first century. Its small size belies its outsized importance, not just as a steward of maritime stability or a battleground of great-power rivalries, but as a living testament to the power of democratic values in an increasingly polarized world. Whether Seychelles can continue to defy the odds and remain a bright spot for democracy will depend not just on the choices of its leaders, but on the engagement and resolve of its people. In their hands lies the promise of a nation—and a lesson for the world. ♦
Dr. Achala Gunasekara-Rockwell
Dr. Gunasekara-Rockwell is an educator, author, and cultural advisor with a rich background in Asian studies and communication. Born and raised in Sri Lanka, she pursued higher education in the United States, completing her academic journey with a PhD from the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Gunasekara-Rockwell serves as the assistant editor-in-chief for the US Department of the Air Force’s Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs and the Strategic Horizons journal, reflecting her deep engagement with geopolitical and cultural issues in the region. She authored Devas, Demons and Buddhist Cosmology in Sri Lanka, a scholarly work that explores the intricate aspects of Sri Lankan Buddhist traditions and cosmology. In addition to her government position, she serves as an adjunct assistant professor of world cultures at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) and adjunct assistant professor of anthropology at Troy University.
Dr. Gunasekara-Rockwell is also committed to educational and medical outreach. She played a pivotal role in securing a grant for Room to Read Sri Lanka, an organization dedicated to improving literacy and supporting girls’ education in her native country. She also was co-lead on a Sparkman Center grant that brought together UAB’s Institute for Human Rights and the international charity Meththa Foundation to study access to prosthetics and health care for people with lower limb impairments in Sri Lanka.