TOPIC SPONSOR: Russia Strategic Initiative (EUCOM)
How do the complex interplay of Vladimir Putin's personal history, centralized leadership style, inner circle of advisors, and strategic calculations influence his decision-making process, particularly regarding major geopolitical actions like the invasion of Ukraine?
- Gaxiola, Kaitlin S. Stark, "Russian Military Ethics: Their Impact on Russian Leadership Decision-Making and Why it Matters to the United States," SAASS thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
- Answers this by tracing Putin's background from a life of poverty to his KGB training, noting that his past forged him into a tenacious and unapologetic leader. She argues that Putin's strategic calculations are heavily influenced by the "siloviki"—an inner circle of former intelligence officers who control the Russian economy and state apparatus through kleptocracy. Ultimately, Gaziola assesses that Putin's decision-making is driven by an unethical desire to restore Russian imperialism, though he is also prone to making emotionally-driven, hasty calculations, such as the 2014 annexation of Crimea which was triggered by a sudden fear of losing the Sevastopol naval base.
- Isom, Joshua M., "2022 Russian Ukrainian War: Analysis Using Three Deterrence Models," SAASS thesis, 2025, 77 pgs.
- Isom answers this by delving into Putin's strategic calculus leading up to the 2022 invasion using George and Smoke’s deterrence framework. Isom explains that Putin’s decision to invade was heavily influenced by his belief that the risks were low and calculable, largely because he anticipated a swift ten-day victory where Ukrainian leadership would flee. Furthermore, Putin's decision-making was shaped by his perception of a weak U.S. commitment to Ukraine, a view informed by the lack of U.S. military intervention during the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Because Putin calculated the risk as controllable and doubted U.S. resolve, he opted to confidently initiate a fait accompli attack.