While contemporary geopolitical competition between the United States, its NATO allies, and the Russian Federation remains highly adversarial across traditional warfighting domains, shared global challenges and common-pool resources necessitate transactional, non-nuclear cooperation to manage mutual risks. History demonstrates that even during periods of intense great-power rivalry, operational-level coordination in specialized, non-military domains can serve as vital deconfliction mechanisms and prevent localized crises from escalating. Rather than focusing strictly on strategic arms control, a comprehensive assessment of potential cooperation must explore a wide array of shared physical, environmental, and security challenges where both the West and Russia possess mutual incentives for stability.
In the high north and Arctic, the physical realities of ice melt and emerging sea lanes introduce complex transboundary challenges, including increased maritime traffic, commercial exploitation, and environmental hazards. These shifts demand coordinated search-and-rescue (SAR) protocols, environmental disaster response plans, and strict adherence to safety-at-sea standards to prevent catastrophic maritime accidents. In the domain of outer space, the rapid congestion of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and the growing risk of an ablation cascade (Kessler Syndrome) represent a critical threat to the space-based infrastructure of all space-faring nations. Both the United States and Russia share a fundamental, structural interest in tracking orbital debris and establishing basic collision avoidance protocols to preserve the long-term usability of the space domain.
Furthermore, both actors face overlapping non-state threats that operate outside traditional military frameworks. The rise of transnational criminal organizations, global illicit trafficking networks, and international cybercrime syndicates—specifically those executing high-impact ransomware operations—presents shared economic and security vulnerabilities. Identifying where transactional coordination, intelligence deconfliction, or joint law enforcement pressures can be applied is essential to countering these non-state actors. By systematically mapping these diverse, non-conflict arenas, researchers can identify where practical, mutual self-interest can sustain baseline diplomatic contact and reduce overall strategic friction.
- Ahn, Lt. Col. David, "United States Cyber Command Is Not the Right Federal Agency to Combat Cybercriminals," AWC SSP, 2022.
- This paper investigates the threat of malicious non-state cyber actors operating from Russian territory, specifically those conducting high-impact ransomware operations against Western critical infrastructure. Using the 2021 Colonial Pipeline shutdown as an example of ransomware-as-a-service, the author explains that while Russia provides a haven for these cybercriminal networks, they are non-state entities operating outside of direct government control. The paper argues that because these threats operate outside traditional military frameworks, military escalation under Title 10 authorities is counterproductive. Instead, the author advocates for addressing these transnational syndicates through joint law enforcement deconfliction, financial tracking, and judicial prosecution (such as Department of Justice indictments for fraud and money laundering), establishing a transactional framework to pressure and isolate these actors.
- Alberts, Robert et al, "Cyber...Disorder: Streamline the Battle within Cyber Now," AF Fellows (Kennedy), 2014.
- This paper addresses the transnational security threat posed by cybercrime syndicates and explores the international legal and law enforcement frameworks designed to counter them. It outlines the operational challenges in attributing cyberattacks, noting that while Western cybercriminals are often anti-government, hackers based in the East (such as Russia) are frequently tolerated by host states as long as their activities align with national interests. To manage these transboundary security vulnerabilities, the paper points to key multilateral mechanisms, such as the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime—the first international treaty targeting computer-related fraud and network security violations—and the Group of Eight (G8) action plans that mandate standardized law enforcement training and rapid data sharing. It highlights that addressing these non-state threats requires sustained public-private partnerships (PPPs) and coordinated international legal cooperation.
- Barfoot, Maj. Steven L., "Space as a Warfighting Domain: Implications for CAN-US Relations," SAASS thesis, 2024.
- This paper directly addresses outer space deconfliction and the historical precedent of transactional cooperation between the West and Russia to preserve the space domain. It highlights that during the Cold War, despite intense geopolitical competition, the United States and the Soviet Union prioritized environmental stability over military superiority in space due to their mutual dependency on the domain, which fostered strategic restraint and cooperative agreements such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the Apollo-Soyuz docking mission, and the Shuttle-Mir program. Furthermore, the paper details a critical historical deconfliction event: the 1978 crash of the defunct Soviet nuclear-powered satellite Kosmos 954. To prevent escalatory tensions, the Soviet Union proactively notified the United States of the satellite's decaying orbit prior to its re-entry over North America. Subsequent clean-up operations (Operation Morning Light) were conducted cooperatively, and Canada successfully leveraged the OST's liability clause to secure financial compensation from the Soviet Union.
- Bruehl, Maj. Jason L., "The Arctic Thaw: Examining US-Russian Arctic Relations and Balancing Military Competition with Cooperation," AFGC thesis, 2023.
- This paper argues that the United States and its allies should decouple Arctic policy from Russia's other global geopolitical activities, such as the conflict in Ukraine, to preserve a cooperative atmosphere in the High North. It highlights that the Arctic Council historically served as a critical intergovernmental forum for all eight Arctic states to negotiate legally binding agreements, including search-and-rescue protocols, marine oil pollution response, and scientific cooperation. Despite Russia's temporary exclusion from council activities due to geopolitical fallout, Russia continues to voice a strong desire to separate Arctic sustainable development from other military-political events. To demonstrate that cooperation can persist during high great-power rivalry, the author utilizes the historical precedent of the US-Soviet space program relationship (such as the Apollo-Soyuz and early ISS agreements), showing how joint scientific and technical endeavors can successfully serve as deconfliction mechanisms.
- Carlson, Lt. Col. Randall, "What Strategic Leaders Need to Know about Russian Space," AWC SSP, 2018.
- This paper advocates for leveraging and expanding the long-standing U.S.-Russian space partnership to improve bilateral diplomatic relations and prevent strategic miscalculation. It highlights the historical continuity of space cooperation, dating back to the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, which built a foundation of trust that later enabled their joint leadership of the ISS. The author suggests that the United States should conditionally expand its space relationship with Russia—such as assisting with Mars exploration planning or partnering on a replacement space station after the ISS retires—to exploit Russia's structural desire for prestige and respect on the world stage. By emphasizing non-military, scientific cooperation in space, both nations can maintain critical lines of communication and avoid driving Russia into a tighter, destabilizing military alliance with China.
- Collinge, Matthew, "Defending the Ice: United States Capabilities and Interests in an Evolving Arctic Region," AFGC thesis, 2024.
- This paper analyzes the transboundary and environmental challenges of the thawing High North and the collaborative mechanisms established to manage them. It explains that rapid ice melt has opened new trans-polar trade routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), introducing hazards like increased maritime traffic, commercial exploitation, and potential oil spills in a highly sensitive ecosystem. To address these risks, the paper emphasizes the role of the Arctic Council as a vital, consensus-based multilateral forum where Arctic nations—including the United States and Russia—cooperate on non-military issues like environmental protection, emergency response, and search-and-rescue (SAR) protocols. The author argues that despite intensifying great-power competition, a cooperative, multipolar Arctic framework is crucial for maintaining regional stability and enforcing strict safety-at-sea standards.
- Fields, CDR Stan, "Russia's Arctic Strategy: Implications for Great Power Competition," AWC EL 2021.
- This paper focuses on practical, operational-level coordination between the United States and Russia to manage common-pool maritime resources and transboundary safety risks. It highlights successful bilateral agreements that establish critical deconfliction and safety standards, such as the vessel traffic separation scheme in the Bering Strait—which was proposed jointly by both nations and adopted by the International Maritime Organization in 2018—and the 2020 Joint Contingency Plan for transboundary oil spill response. Furthermore, the author notes that the U.S. Coast Guard and the Russian Border Guard regularly interact and conduct joint patrols to achieve shared interests in maritime safety of life, environmental protection, and the responsible management of shared fish stocks. These ongoing deconfliction mechanisms show that mutual interest in safety and environmental security can sustain baseline diplomatic contact.
- Fossum, Maj. Mitchell E., "Diplomacy and the Syrian Civil War," Air Force Fellows paper, 2021, 21 pgs.
- Specifically, the paper outlines how the United States and Russia, despite backing opposing sides in the Syrian conflict, negotiated a diplomatic agreement to verifiably destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles under UN Security Council Resolution 2118. Operationally, the two nuclear powers continuously updated military-to-military deconfliction channels to prevent accidental mid-air collisions between their rival air forces. Furthermore, the paper details how both nations sat down in multilateral forums under the International Syria Support Group to negotiate the UNSCR 2254 political roadmap, and even briefly agreed to establish a Joint Implementation Center to share intelligence and coordinate airstrikes against shared transnational terrorist threats like ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
- Hardy, Natalie M. "Tip of the Iceberg: A Lack of Current National Strategy May Be Setting the Department of Defense up for Failure in the Arctic," AFGC thesis, 2019.
- Documents the efficacy of operational-level, non-military agreements in establishing a stable baseline of deconfliction and environmental safety between Russia and the West. While strategic-level political tensions between NATO and the Russian Federation remain high, operational cooperation has been formalized through legally binding agreements under the auspices of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Arctic Council. Specifically, the 2011 Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic and the 2013 Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response in the Arctic mandate that Russia and its Western neighbors actively collaborate during emergencies. These frameworks require participating nations to coordinate rescue efforts regardless of a mariner's nationality, share critical situational data, preposition emergency response equipment, and participate in regular joint exercises. This proves that practical, transactional coordination remains a viable and necessary tool to manage shared transboundary risks even during periods of intense competition.
- Hernandez, James, "Globalized Border Security," AWC EL 2018.
- Focuses on the rising, shared threats posed by transnational criminal organizations, trafficking networks, and cybercrime syndicates that operate outside of traditional military frameworks. Transnational organized crime actively exploits gaps in national borders and legitimate global financial systems to traffic drugs, weapons, and human beings, draining approximately 1.5% of the total global GDP and directly threatening public safety and economic stability. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities are particularly critical, as international cybercrime syndicates and state-tolerated ransomware actors have the capability to infiltrate critical infrastructure networks, presenting the risk of cascading systemic collapses. Because these non-state threats are highly complex and borderless, they cannot be countered by any single nation operating in a vacuum. The author argues that relevant global stakeholders must dismantle traditional organizational silos and build robust, cooperative networks that share intelligence and facilitate joint law enforcement efforts to identify, disrupt, and dismantle these criminal enterprises.
- Hulshizer, Lt. Col. Eric D., "Every Wallet a Target: Fusing Financial and Military Targeting in Strategy for the Decisive Decade," SAASS thesis, 2024.
- This paper addresses the "unholy alliances" formed between transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), foreign terrorist organizations, and revisionist state actors like Russia to bypass international security frameworks. It outlines how the Russian state actively employs criminal networks as enablers of state authority, utilizing organized crime as an asymmetric tool of irregular warfare to evade global economic sanctions, launder money, and generate illicit revenue streams. The paper highlights that countering these borderless syndicates requires a paradigm shift, defining them as integrated, crosscutting threat networks rather than isolated criminal entities. Crucially, it highlights how joint international law enforcement actions and counter threat finance (CTF) mechanisms can successfully disrupt these networks, citing the U.S. Treasury's FinCEN coordination with 19 international financial intelligence units (FIUs) and the REPO Task Force to successfully dismantle Bitzlato, a Russia-affiliated virtual asset service provider involved in facilitating ransomware payments.
- Ibsen, Genna M., "Jettisoned Junk: The Unseen US Security Risk Developing in Space," AFGC 2024.
- This paper evaluates the legal and physical challenges of managing Low Earth Orbit (LEO) congestion and orbital debris as common-pool resource risks. It reviews foundational space treaties, such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the 1972 Liability Convention, and the 1976 Registration Convention, which establish state liability and registration requirements to hold space-faring nations accountable for their space garbage. The paper notes that both the United States and Russia are active members of the Interagency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), which provides international recommendations to mitigate the generation of new debris during launch and satellite operations. The author concludes that because the unmitigated accumulation of orbital junk threatens the long-term usability of space, the international community must leverage cooperative data-sharing initiatives to build a unified space domain awareness system and mitigate collision risks.
- Khasilev, Eugene, "If Drugs Meet Digits: Anticipating the Adoption of Cybercrime by Transnational Criminal Organizations," AFGC thesis, 2024.
- This paper explores overlapping transnational security threats, specifically focusing on the convergence of physical transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and highly capable Russian cybercrime networks. It details how Russian cybercriminals, facing economic decline, severe Western sanctions, and potential military conscription due to the war in Ukraine, are under pressure to migrate to TCO-controlled safe havens in Latin America. In these ungoverned spaces, traditional cartels can co-opt Russian cyber operations to execute high-impact ransomware attacks, engage in state-level surveillance, and secure their own communications. To counter these borderless threats, the paper recommends that the United States and its partners expand global cybersecurity law enforcement cooperation, leveraging platforms like the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Counter-Ransomware Initiative to build collective defense and secure critical information infrastructure.
- Luina, Nicholas A., "National Power: The Execution of Spacepower through All Instruments of Power," SAASS thesis, 2021.
- Emphasizes that the physical realities of the space domain create a unique condition of "mutual interdependence" that necessitates cooperative environmental restraint between the West and Russia. In orbits such as Low Earth Orbit (LEO), discarded debris and accidental satellite collisions—such as the 2009 Iridium-Cosmos crash—create hundreds of thousands of unguided fragments that travel at extreme kinetic velocities. Unregulated kinetic testing or on-orbit conflict risks triggering the Kessler Syndrome, a cascading chain reaction of collisions that would render critical orbital regimes entirely unusable for all spacefaring nations. Historically, this shared threat of environmental degradation successfully fostered cooperative restraint between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, resulting in the Partial Test Ban Treaty. Today, the author suggests that the United States and Russia must leverage this mutual vulnerability to co-create defined international norms of behavior, establish space traffic management protocols, and implement salvage-incentive rules similar to Maritime Law to regulate space debris retrieval and Proximity Operations safely.
- McGetrick, Major Patrick, "Sanctions on Russia: How They Affect Commercial Space Collaboration with the West," ACSC Russia RTF, 2022, 17 pgs.
- Demonstrates that joint scientific and commercial space ventures between Russia and the West have historically transcended geopolitical disagreements and served as a powerful tool for building trust. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, commercial partnerships between Western entities and Roscosmos—such as the International Launch Services joint venture—revitalized the Russian space program while providing low-cost launch alternatives for Western commercial satellite customers. Furthermore, joint efforts on the International Space Station (ISS) became a vital symbol of post-Cold War cooperation, creating a stable relationship that proved critical when the United States relied solely on Russian Soyuz spacecraft for manned spaceflight after the retirement of the space shuttle. Although modern sanctions have strained these ties, the paper argues that the West must continue to seek collaborative "carrots"—such as flight-sharing arrangements on American spacecraft or offering Russia a seat on future lunar Artemis missions—to de-escalate tensions, diversify economic portfolios away from defense, and safely pursue outer space exploration.
- McKinney, Lt. Col. Matt, "A US-Russian Strategic Partnership to Counter China's Influence," AWC PSP, 2021, 41 pgs.
- Directly addresses opportunities for Russian cooperation with the West across multi-domain arenas and common-pool resource management to manage mutual risks. McKinney proposes a phased "enterprise strategy" designed to gradually build trust through non-military, transactional, and strategic partnerships, explicitly highlighting outer space and the Arctic as key cooperative domains. In space, he suggests integrating Russian capabilities alongside growing SpaceX and NASA developments as a strategic partnership. In the Arctic, he advocates for a joint US-Russian strategic partnership to collaborate on regional exploration and resource management, which would simultaneously de-escalate tensions with NATO and obstruct Chinese attempts to exploit the high north. Furthermore, he highlights that both actors can leverage short-term, pragmatic security cooperation—such as their historic 2015 Syrian chemical weapons collaboration—to establish baseline strategic contact and achieve regional de-escalation.
- Mittelstadt, Amanda J., "An Analysis of the Arctic Interests, Strategies and Policies of the US, Russia, Canada, Sweden and Norway: Opportunities for Engagement and Cooperation," AFGC thesis, 2022.
- Highlights that while the high north has reemerged as an area of great power competition, the unique environmental and physical challenges of the region necessitate stable cooperation. The Arctic Council has traditionally served as the primary multilateral forum for the United States, Russia, and other Arctic nations to coordinate on non-military issues such as climate change, environmental research, and search-and-rescue (SAR) efforts. Despite divergent geopolitical motives—such as Russia's militarization of its coastline and aggressive expansion of its continental shelf claims—the regional actors maintain shared, overlapping interests in managing maritime trade routes, preserving marine ecosystems, and protecting indigenous populations. Rather than relying solely on unilateral military deterrence, the author argues that the West must use soft power and diplomatic engagement to build mutual trust and integrate Russia into a cooperative, rules-based framework to prevent environmental disaster or miscalculation.
- Skovmose, Hans, "Russian Foreign Policy: An Interpretation of Russian Arctic Policy," AWC EL 2020.
- This paper analyzes Russia's Arctic strategy through a neoliberal lens, arguing that economic interdependence and the massive capital requirements of offshore resource development compel Russia toward international cooperation. It explains that because the exploitation of Arctic natural resources is highly expensive and technically demanding, Russia has a pragmatic, structural interest in cooperating with foreign nations and companies to bring its resources to the global market. The author notes that Russia has consistently backed cooperative frameworks like the 2008 Ilulissat Declaration, committing to resolve territorial disputes peacefully through UNCLOS. This economic and diplomatic interdependence acts as a vital deconfliction tool, as any aggressive, unilateral action by Russia would sever access to foreign investments and the global energy markets it relies upon for its great-power ambitions.
- Thorp, Isaac, "Countering Chinese Space Aggression," ACSC RTF, 2020.
- This paper explores the shared, fragile environment of outer space and argues for a Cooperative Security strategy to address common physical and environmental threats that impact all space-faring nations. The author explains that critical global infrastructure is vulnerable to space debris and the potential of an ablation cascade (Kessler Syndrome), which would devastate the global economy and limit LEO and GEO operations for all nations. To demonstrate how great-power deconfliction can function, the paper points to the International Space Station (ISS) as a highly successful cooperative partnership between the U.S. and Russia that has endured despite intense geopolitical friction. The paper proposes that managing this shared common-pool resource requires joint initiatives, such as planetary defense to intercept asteroids and collaborative space debris clean-up, which can foster mutual trust and de-escalate strategic tension.
- Timpson, Lt. Col. Shawn, "Russian Arctic Intentions," AWC SSP, 2020.
- This paper outlines how Russia utilizes peaceful dispute resolution and existing international institutions to secure its economic interests, showing how international law can incentivize cooperative behavior. It details Russia's diplomatic engagement in regional forums such as the Arctic Council, the Inuit Circumpolar Council, and the submission of its extended continental shelf claims to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Most notably, the paper highlights the Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic (ACARMSRA), officially signed in May 2011 as the first legally binding treaty negotiated among all eight Arctic nations, which remains a rare and vital area of operational agreement between the U.S. and Russian militaries. This illustrates that Russia's long-term strategy relies on multilateral frameworks to maintain regional stability and display itself as a reliable global actor as long as its core economic interests are protected.