For over 70 years since World War II, nuclear deterrence has relied on a human-centric equilibrium grounded in predictable timelines, transparent signaling, and deliberate decision-making. As nuclear proliferation and modernization continue among adversaries, allies, and partners in a multipolar world, how has this nuclear mindset evolved given the lack of nuclear employment, and what are the implications for deterrence and escalation dynamics today?
Within this changing strategic landscape, what effect do emerging disruptive technologies—primarily artificial intelligence, but also quantum computing and hypersonic weapons—have on this delicate framework? Specifically, how do advancements in these rapid delivery platforms, alongside new theater-based systems and defense platforms (for example, the Golden Dome), affect adversaries' first-strike and second-strike perceptions?
While quantum computing might add to the effectiveness of our deterrents through secure communications, and AI-aided planning could theoretically further deter an adversary from attempting a nuclear first strike, the speed, autonomy, and "black box" nature of AI threaten to severely compress critical decision-making timelines. When coupled with the rapid strike capabilities of hypersonic weapons, does the integration of AI into nuclear command, control, communications, and intelligence (C3I) and ISR systems fundamentally alter the stability of mutually assured destruction (MAD)? Does it introduce dangerous novel failure modes—such as AI-driven cyber threats to C2 networks, automated misinterpretation of early-warning sensor data, or machine-speed "flash wars" that bypass human deliberation?
To balance deterrence with minimizing risks to global stability, what adjustments to force posture, operational concepts, and the integration of conventional and nuclear capabilities are needed to achieve U.S. objectives without increasing instability? Ultimately, this research should explore the intersection of nuclear psychology, technological advancements, and command-and-control structures. By analyzing the primary mechanisms of this disruption and the inherent resilience of existing deterrence architectures against these risks, this study will provide actionable insights into how the Army and Joint Force can adapt and operate to maintain deterrence and global stability.
- Beck, Capt., "BBP on Quantum Applications for Hypersonic Intercept and Decryption," SOS AUAR 2024, 3 pgs.
- Jones, LtCol Eric, "Quantum Advances in the Electromagnetic Spectrum and Electronic Warfare," AWC elective paper, 2023, 12 pgs.
- Unruh, Maj. Michael Y., "21st Century Coercion: Growing Deterrence Doctrine, Policy and Strategy into the 2020s and Beyond," ACSC thesis, 2020 48 pgs.
- Yehle, Major Todd M., "Deterrence: Is Cyber Deterrence Viable," AFF paper, 2022, 4 pgs.