Future of Air Mobility in a Kinetic/Contested Environment with China
What will be the impact of a kinetic/contested environment with China on Air Mobility, and how can Air Mobility plan to operate in this environment? To effectively plan for these contested operations, this research must explore the future of Air Mobility specifically with respect to Bypass Theory and the evolution of the Critical Path for Air Mobility.
- Aglubat, Maj. Eric J., "Enhancing C3 for Mobility Aircraft: The Promise and Pitfalls of Starshield," AFGC thesis, 2025, 45 pgs.
- Aglubat notes that in a Great Power Competition with the PRC, air mobility forces will be forced to operate in a contested, degraded, and operationally limited (CDO) battlespace. Currently, these assets lack an enterprise-wide solution for global airborne connectivity, leaving them unable to tie into joint battle networks. To effectively operate and maneuver in this environment, he recommends deploying a hybrid satellite architecture that allows mobility aircraft to utilize both traditional Military Satellite Communications (MILSATCOM) and commercial systems like Starshield, ensuring resilient Command, Control, and Communication (C3).
- Alexander, Maj. Jon Ryan, "The 8,000 Mile Miracle, and Why We Can't Count on It Next Time," ACSC AO 2025.
- Alexander answers this by detailing how a near-peer conflict with China will leverage advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) networks and long-range missiles to severely degrade mobility operations by damaging runways and destroying fuel storage, thereby cutting off traditional fixed-wing aeromedical evacuation (AE) lifelines. To successfully operate in this environment, Alexander argues that the Air Force must prioritize survivability over efficiency by dispersing mobility assets and patient movement centers across a wider array of global bases. Furthermore, he asserts that the AE enterprise must plan to utilize multi-modal capabilities, such as moving patients via fast-moving ships in the Pacific or rail cars in Europe, to reduce the reliance on conventional airlift aircraft that will be at extreme risk.
- Badillo, Maj. Amy, "Contested Skies, Compromised Care: Airpower's Role in the Future of Patient Movement," ACSC AO, 2025.
- Badillo explores this through the specific lens of fixed-wing aeromedical evacuation and rotary-wing MEDEVAC platforms, noting that these mobility aircraft will be severely restricted by integrated air defenses and long-range fires in the Indo-Pacific. She argues that to safely conduct these critical air mobility and extraction operations, the Joint Force cannot rely on the uncontested air corridors of past conflicts. Instead, air mobility planners must work to generate localized, time-sensitive air superiority windows or use escort aircraft to temporarily suppress enemy sensors, creating the brief, secure corridors necessary for mobility platforms to execute their missions.
- Baker, Maj. Kyle W., "Examining the Emergence of the YU-20 Tanker: Countering China's Key to Global Airpower," GCPME thesis, 2024, 48 pgs.
- Caliva, Maj. Anthony M., "Fueling the Fight: The Right Air-to-Air Refueling Fleet for a War with China," GCPME thesis, 2023, 58 pgs.
- Carroll, Lt. Col. Benjamin, "Redistributing Rapid Global Mobility Control: Air Mobility Command & Control for the Future," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2022, 67 pgs.
- Carter, Brandon C., "Refueling the Future: The Coevolution of Aerial Refueling Technology with Air Power Strategy," SAASS thesis, 2023, 135 pgs.
- Cruden, Maj. David S., "Clipping the Dragon's Wing's: Gaining and Maintaining Air Superiority in the South China Sea," GCPME paper, 2020, 50 pgs.
- Egli, Maj. Caleb, "Fueling a Superpower: Reprioritizing the US Air Refueling Fleet for Great Power Competition," ACSC paper, subsequently published in Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs (May 8, 2024).
- Frizzell, Capt. Matthew E., "Strategizing Air Mobility Support in an Operationally Challenging Indo-Pacific Environment," GCPME thesis, 2024, 36 pgs.
- Hall, LCDR Jonathan, "Establishing a New Norm: Airpower in the South China Sea," AF Global College, 2024, 49 pgs.
- Hinkley, Eric W., "Troops-in-Contact: Utilizing the A-10C in Contested South China Sea Airspace," AF Global College, 2024, 36 pgs.
- Lavey, Maj. Brent J., "Is Austere Surgery the New Normal: Adapting Air Force Ground Surgical Teams to Operations in the Western Pacific," GCPME thesis, 2025, 36 pgs.
- Lemmen, Maj. Kurt, "Air Mobility's Untapped Potential to Meet Combat Airpower Requirements during Great Power Competition," GCPME thesis, 2024, 44 pgs.
- McDaniel, Capt. Joshua, "United States Air Force Pilot Training Reductions & Mitigations in the C-5M Community," SOS AUAR, 2025.
- McDaniel answers this by focusing on the human element—the safety and capability of the pilots flying these missions. He explains that Air Education and Training Command (AETC) is retiring the T-1A Jayhawk by 2026, meaning student pilots will enter operational units with zero multi-engine, automation, or crew resource management (CRM) training. To plan for and survive contested operations, McDaniel argues that operational units must "pick up the slack". Operational instructors and aircraft commanders must shift from a complaining mindset to a mindset of action, utilizing their instructor pilot core to design and implement focused, milestone-based training plans that prepare these minimally experienced pilots to fly safe, combat-ready missions in contested theaters.
- Messer, Maj. Jessica et al, "Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in the Pacific: Understanding Limitations and Informing Supply Chain Design Improvements to Enable Successful Air Operations in the Pacific Theater," AF Fellows Paper (St. Louis University), 2023, 35 pgs.
- Montiague, Lt. Col. Raul, "Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Events Can Degrade the Air Force Core Mission Rapid Global Mobility," GCPME, 2020, 43 pgs.
- Nickell, Maj. Ryan J., “War with a Heavyweight: Stealth Fighters and China,” GCPME paper, 2020, 46 pgs.
- Owen, Robert C., "Basing Strategies for Air Refueling Forces in Anti-Access/Area-Denial Environments," Published as an AU Press Fairchild Paper, 2015, 32 pgs.
- Persons, Lt. Col. Eli, "Examining Air Mobility in a US-PRC Theater Conflict Scenario," AWC Strategic Studies Paper (Kenney Airpower Seminar), 2024 42 pgs. Winner of the Air & Space Association Writing Award; Winner of the AWC Global Reach Award
- Smith, Maj. Michael D., "Dynamic Force Employment in the Indo-Pacific: Making a Case for Air Force Special Tactics," Air Force Fellows paper, 2021, 69 pgs.
- Barrett IV, Lt. Col. William F., "A Strategic Lift: Optimizing USAF Acquisitions," SAASS thesis, 2024, 110 pgs.
- Campbell, Maj. Andrew Clifton, "We Need a New Moose," AFF paper, 2022, 2 pgs.
- Chhen, Maj. Dalin, "Optimizing Airlift: Sustaining Agile Combat Employment Airfields in USINDOPACOM," GCPME thesis, 2024, 34 pgs.
- Frizzell, Capt. Matthew E., "Strategizing Air Mobility Support in an Operationally Challenging Indo-Pacific Environment," GCPME thesis, 2024, 36 pgs.
- Froelich, Lt. Commander Craig R., "Efficiency from Experience: A Hybrid Solution for Air Mobility Command's Future Force Structure," GCPME thesis, 2024, 44 pgs.
- Harrill, Steven, "Addressing the Tyranny of Distance and Capacity in Air Mobility Operations in INDOPACOM," GCPME thesis, 2025, 47 pgs.
- Herzberg, Maj. Matthew, "Moving with a Purpose: Toward Access Theory for Strategic Mobility," SAASS thesis, 2023, 112 pgs.
- Kamps, Thomas F., "Keeping the ARC Tactical Airlift Capability Relevant," GCPME (ACSC), 2021, 46 pgs.
- Lemmen, Maj. Kurt, "Air Mobility's Untapped Potential to Meet Combat Airpower Requirements during Great Power Competition," GCPME thesis, 2024, 44 pgs.
- Owen, Robert C., "Launching the Workhorse: Vertical or Super-Short Takeoff Capabilities for the Next Theater Airlift Aircraft," Published as an AU Press Fairchild Paper, 2019, 30 pgs.
- Owen, Robert C., "Shaping Air Mobility Forces for Future Relevance," Published as an AU Press Fairchild Paper, 2017, 51 pgs.
- Schooler, Col. Terrance L., "What Happened to the Last Tactical Mile?" AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2020, 27 pgs.
- Sewell, Lt. Col. Jason M., "The Impact of USTRANSCOM Incentive Structures on AMC's Preparation for GPC," SAASS thesis, 2025, 90 pgs.
- Shriver, Christopher L., "Enhancing Military Lethality: Adopting Commercial Cargo Practices to Boost Air Force Strategic Airlift Efficiency," GCPME thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
- Tignor, Maj. Brian D., "Strategic Lift, Strategic Edge: Mobility Air Forces and the Necessary Evolution of Power Projection in Support of Deterrence," GCPME thesis, 2025, 49 pgs.
- Weinberg, Matthew, "Between Scylla & Charybdis: The Airlift Odyssey," SAASS Thesis, 2021, 124 pgs.