The media and trade shows are dominated by the latest unmanned and autonomous technologies. Does the rise in this potential shift to unmanned warfare across the land, air, and sea domains represent a revolution in military affairs? Why or why not? The world may be in the opening stages of another revolution in military affairs, spawned in large part by the ongoing information technology revolution. As with other technology revolutions, those militaries who take the initiative now to accelerate and exploit it could enjoy a military advantage over competitors who fail to keep pace.
If this shift to unmanned and autonomous warfare does represent the next revolution, the ability of the DoW to forestall exploitation of it by potential adversaries has to be well understood. This is particularly critical given the dual-use nature of these current and emerging commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies and the massive challenges regarding technology control, protection, and diffusion to prospective adversaries.
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- Answered by Gheorghiu's detailed examination of how small unmanned systems have transformed the character of modern conflict into a contested low-altitude battlespace. He notes that cheap, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) drones, exemplified by models like the DJI Mavic, have been widely repurposed to deliver grenades and other small explosives, allowing even irregular forces to execute high-impact precision strikes and persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) with minimal training and infrastructure. This shift alters the cost-calculus of war because high attrition rates of cheap, mass-produced systems can be easily tolerated while exerting continuous pressure on adversary forces and infrastructure. Consequently, Gheorghiu highlights that these dual-use technologies require militaries to rapidly adapt their doctrines, command structures, and countermeasure strategies, particularly as a reciprocal cycle of adaptation introduces unjammable technologies like fiber-optic-guided drones.
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