Historically, technological innovations drive changes to the ways in which conflicts are fought. However, it is not always easy to see which technologies will drive such changes, or the ways that such technologies will be incorporated and deployed by militaries. New technologies in a variety of areas offer both promise and peril and demand our attention as they provide the potential for black swan (improbable, high-impact) or gray rhino (probable, high-impact, but neglected) events. How can the SOE best identify emerging technologies? Do SOF have strategic blind spots when it comes to emerging technologies—is it focused in certain areas but not in others? How can the SOE assess or forecast the impact of emerging technologies? How can SOF experiment and incorporate emerging disruptive technologies within current fiscal constraints? How can the SOE best share new knowledge of military applications of emerging technologies across its organizations? Is there a need for new statutory and other relevant authorities for public–private sector cooperation to provide SOF access to the latest innovations? How can SOF leverage and explore new technologies while limiting their exposure to the risks that accompany these technologies? What are the emerging technologies, such as AI/ML, neuromorphic and biotechnologies, and new power sources, which could affect SOF capabilities, both positively and negatively? Are there risks associated with reliance on and expectations of technology?
- Brode, Michael C., "Battle Management Automation: Balancing Technological Adoption and Trust with Risk," SAASS thesis, 2025, 95 pgs.
- Brode answers this by detailing the catastrophic risks of both over-reliance and under-reliance on battle management automation. He uses the 1994 Black Hawk shootdown to demonstrate the risks of under-reliance, showing how an AWACS crew failed to use available tracking automation, which contributed to a fatal loss of situational awareness and the misidentification of friendly helicopters. Conversely, he shows how the expectation of technological infallibility during the Patriot fratricide led operators to blindly rely on the system's lethal automated engagement mode, resulting in the death of a friendly pilot.
- Guida, Maj. Christopher A., "Surprise! Strategies for Successful Military Advantages and Family Festivities," AF Fellows paper, 2024, 13 pgs.