The war in Ukraine has highlighted the continued relevance of strategic deep attacks by SOF such as the attempts to degrade and/ or destroy the Kerch bridge. However, both Ukraine and its partners have been under severe political pressure to minimize these attacks for fear of provoking a Russian response. These political restraints limit the options for SOF planners, but similar constraints will likely be present in the future both in Europe and elsewhere. How can SOF incorporate and mitigate political considerations in planning deep area operations? How can the United States and its allies and partners increase the political restraints facing adversaries when they consider carrying out deep area operations?
Another example of the utilization of political limitations is the use of narratives—true, false, or a mixture of both—to discredit ongoing military operations. In each combatant command AOR, adversaries are using U.S. actions since the end of the Cold War (e.g., NATO enlargement, civil wars in the Balkans, Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, Afghanistan and Iraq, sanctions on Iran and Venezuela) to portray the United States as a destabilizing, imperialist, and militarily aggressive power that cannot be trusted and must be opposed. States that believe these narratives are likely to push back diplomatically against U.S. foreign policy and military initiatives in their country. In this way, narratives shape political limitations, which then, in turn, may have effects down to the tactical level (such as discontinuing joint combined exchange training or other small-scale SOF engagements). How can these narratives be countered, and how can counternarratives be attuned to address historical memories and cultural expectations of specific states?
- Higgins, Jenna E., "The Missing Instrument: Information Power in Australia's Strategy of Denial," SAASS thesis, 2025, 99 pgs.
- Answers how to shape counternarratives by emphasizing that compelling narratives must engage audiences simultaneously on logos (rational appeal), pathos (emotional connection), and ethos (moral standing). Relying on the theories of Emile Simpson, the author underscores the critical role of historical and cultural contexts, noting that a successful narrative must "connect the rational argument to the identity of the audience in emotional and human terms."
- Koeltzow, Col. Christopher, Brent Peterson and Eric Williams, "F-16s Unleashed: How They Will Impact Ukraine's War," AF Fellows research, published by Center for Strategic & International Studies, June 11, 2024.
- Discusses the political restraints placed on Ukraine regarding deep strikes. The authors note that the United States and NATO have placed employment restrictions on Ukraine that limit strikes beyond Ukraine's borders. To mitigate these political considerations and avoid a protracted war of attrition (similar to the Vietnam War before Operation Linebacker II), the authors recommend that the US and NATO should impose "minimal restrictions," allowing Ukraine to conduct strategic attacks and interdiction of Russian logistics and forces inside Russian territory.
- Moncier, Lt. Col. Benjamin S., "The Least Worst Reality: Responsibly Ensuring Partner Conflict Civilian Casualty Mitigation," GCPME thesis, 2023, 37 pgs.
- Explores the strategic risks and moral challenges of conducting counterinsurgency operations through partner forces. The core theme of his research centers on the premise that failing to mitigate civilian casualties (CIVCAS) inflicted by proxies directly undermines the United States' reputational credibility and moral legitimacy, handing adversaries powerful narrative ammunition to frame the U.S. as a destabilizing power. To counter this vulnerability, Moncier advocates for a proactive, whole-of-government approach that utilizes "incentivized compliance measures." By strictly conditioning security cooperation, military training, and Foreign Military Sales on a partner nation's adherence to the international laws of war and civilian protection, the U.S. can successfully advance its national interests in the "gray zone" while preserving its strategic legitimacy and denying adversaries the ability to weaponize civilian harm.
- Rummel, Maj. Joshua A., "'STRIKES ALL OVER PACIFIC!': ACE Risks Greater Destruction Throughout the Indo-Pacific," AF Fellows Paper, 2024, 2 pgs. Subsequently Published in Wild Blue Yonder (August 12, 2024)
- Highlights that China attempts to politically constrain U.S. operations in the Indo-Pacific by pushing the narrative that the "U.S. ropes in allies." This narrative is designed to exploit the cultural and political expectations of island nations that have historically maintained a "friend to all, enemy to none" diplomatic attitude. By framing U.S. partnership as a trap that forces nations to pick sides, China creates severe political hesitation among Indo-Pacific countries considering hosting U.S. forces for Agile Combat Employment (ACE) operations, as these nations fear being added to China's "enemy order of battle" in the event of a conflict. Countering the Narrative: Rummel suggests that countering this narrative does not necessarily require a messaging campaign but rather relies on highlighting the reality of the adversary's own aggressive actions. China undermines its own narrative through its aggressive regional behavior, such as building artificial reefs, interfering with maritime shipping, and offering aid funds with "opaque conditions". To overcome these political restraints, the U.S. and its partners can demonstrate that because of China's unchecked aggression, these nations have no genuine alternatives; aligning with the U.S. to increase the political costs for China is the only realistic route to maintaining regional stability
- Schnell, Maj. Andrew T., "Building Blocs: Economic Sanctions on the People's Republic of China during the Early Cold War," SAASS thesis 2025, 90 pgs.
- Explores how U.S. and Western economic sanctions against the People's Republic of China during the early Cold War influenced the geopolitical landscape, specifically exacerbating the Sino-Soviet split. How it answers the strategic question: Schnell argues that policymakers must adopt a measured, pragmatic approach when using economic statecraft. To effectively utilize strategic limitations like sanctions without provoking unintended consequences, governments must carefully align their policies with their strategic narratives to avoid alienating third parties or causing unnecessary tension among allies.
- Schnell, Maj. Andrew T., "The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: An Analysis of the Effect of Information Operations on Kinetic Operations," AF Fellows (Johns Hopkins SAIS), 2023, 27 pgs.
- Provides an analysis of the 2008 Russo-Georgian War (the "Five-Day War"), specifically focusing on how information operations affected kinetic military operations. How it answers the strategic question: It examines how states utilize information operations—defined as "a strategy for the use and management of information to pursue a competitive advantage, including both offensive and defensive operations"—to control narratives and shape the battlefield during a conflict.
- Wiedmeier, LCDR Victoria L., "Narrative Warfare across Eras: Lessons from Nazi Germany, Russia and Hamas," AFGC thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
- Explicitly explores how adversaries exploit historical grievances and cultural touchpoints to delegitimize allied presence. To counter these narratives, the paper recommends implementing "narrative inoculation," cognitive training, and "culturally precise counter-messaging". The author stresses that forward forces must integrate culturally competent communications and indigenous partner outreach into the earliest phases of planning, rather than waiting to react to a reputational incident.
- Willigenburg, Marije B., "Thinking, Feeling, Caring: Strategic Empathy in Military Strategy," SAASS thesis, 2024, 103 pgs.
- Explains how to attune counternarratives to specific states by utilizing a "Strategic Empathy Framework." The author argues that military strategists must use emotional and cognitive empathy to tune into what key target audiences genuinely care about. This understanding enables the creation of "multivocal strategic narratives"—messages that are honest and transparent but tailored with different rhetorical contents and frames to connect with the unique emotions and cognition of diverse domestic, international, and adversarial audiences.