Given the current focus on strategic competition and competitive statecraft, the Joint Force's operations around the globe have an important role to play. However, activities in one country or on one continent may have far-reaching effects in neighboring countries or across the globe. The scale of potential effects provides both opportunities and risks. How can the Joint Force better understand the unintended consequences of its activities around the globe? What are the risks for escalation? Can cross-regional planning be used to help mitigate risks? How can the defense enterprise better communicate with policymakers to address issues of strategic risk and risk aversion? How can risk be characterized in terms of probability, assessment, measurement, identification, and mitigation?
- Grimsley, Maj. Charles W., "Medieval Weapons and Moving Targets: The Law of Armed Conflict v. Evolving Cyber Threats," AFGC thesis, 2025.
- Grimsley addresses unintended consequences by analyzing how cyber operations naturally overflow targeted boundaries, directly threatening the LOAC principle of proportionality. The paper explains that cyberattacks carry high risks of unpredictable "trickle-down" or ripple effects, where malware can easily spread to civilian networks or critical infrastructure, such as taking a hospital offline or disrupting the stock market. To forecast and mitigate these risks, Grimsley notes that military commanders must accurately understand the operational limits of their technology—namely, how far a cyber response will travel and how long its impacts will persist. Without this technological clarity, commanders cannot reliably measure collateral damage, dramatically escalating the risk of causing prohibited civilian suffering and triggering unintended strategic escalation.