Future of the All-Volunteer Force

The health of the Joint Force depends on attracting and retaining the talent it needs to defend the U.S. homeland, deter strategic attacks, prevail in conflict, and build enduring advantages. Key questions include: What skill sets and subject areas may require different approaches to recruitment, career progression, and retention? What lessons can be learned from allies and partners' approaches to recruitment, career progression, and retention? ARC submissions should describe one or more alternative models for recruitment, career progression, and retention available to DoD (to potentially include options that move away from an all-volunteer force), and analyze the risks of the model(s) considered.

• Adams, Maj. Amara, "Overcoming Barriers to the Career Intermission Program: Proposed DoD Year Group Reset Initiative as an Alternative Retention Program," ACSC elective paper, 2023, 10 pgs. 
• Anchustegui, Maj. Michael J. "Two Front War: Combating the US Manpower Shortage Facing a Great Power Competition," AF Global College thesis, 2025, 33 pgs. 
• Anthony, Justin, "The Human Capital War: The Race to Attract a Civilian Workforce with Competitive Pay," AFGC thesis, 2025.
  • Anthony answers this by detailing the specific recruitment and retention challenges the Department of the Air Force (DAF) faces regarding highly technical STEM skill sets, specifically computer scientists, operations research analysts, and electronics engineers. He argues that the DAF's reliance on the rigid General Schedule (GS) pay system puts it at a severe disadvantage against the private sector and other federal agencies because it lacks flexible career progression and competitive entry-level pay. To solve this, Anthony proposes an alternative model: phasing out the GS and Laboratory Personnel Management Demonstration Project (Lab Demo) systems in favor of enterprise-wide adoption of the Acquisition Demonstration Project (AcqDemo) for all white-collar civilian positions. By shifting to AcqDemo's broadband pay structure, the DAF can offer faster, contribution-based career progression and negotiate competitive starting salaries, providing a much stronger alternative model for talent management.
• Bear, Jennifer Y., "Can the USAF Win Tomorrow's Wars with Underdeveloped Civilian Leaders: Implications of Requiring Civilian Employees to Take PME Courses," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 55 pgs. 
• Bernaola, Maj. Marby M., "Beyond a Fellowship: Building a Foundation for PACU Nurses," AFGC thesis, 2025, 51 pgs. 
  • Bernaola identifies PACU nursing as a critical skill set currently suffering from severe manning constraints and a lack of structured career progression. Currently, PACU is the only one of the Air Force's ten nursing specialties that lacks a formalized training curriculum. To combat the nursing shortage and improve long-term retention, she proposes an alternative career progression model: requiring nurses to complete a minimum of 12 months of foundational medical-surgical experience, followed by a dedicated, multi-tiered PACU fellowship prior to permanent unit assignment. Her research demonstrates that adopting this structured residency model—which has already proven successful in the civilian sector—builds clinical confidence, prevents fatal medical errors, and directly improves nursing retention rates.
• Block, Maj. Philip Z., "Lateral Thinking: Funding Military Education to STEM Success," AFGC thesis, 2024, 67 pgs.
• Boghean, Lt. Col. Lucian, "Leading the Multi-Generational Force: A Study of Leadership Dynamics in Contemporary Military Organizations," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 53 pgs. 
• Bulley, John Z., "U.S. Air Force Bases in Europe: High Standards, Against All Odds," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 36 pgs. 
• Carrillo, Maj. Marlena J. Sultemeier, "Peaceful Power: Supporting U.S. Foreign Policy's Sacred Courier," AFGC thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
  • Carrillo addresses this prompt by focusing on the highly specialized, experienced skill sets required for Executive Airlift pilots and illustrating the failure of standard aviation bonuses to solve modern retention crises. She proposes an alternative retention model inspired by the Army’s Career Satisfaction Program, recommending that the Air Force create a dedicated "Executive Airlift Pilot" (11E) specialty code or award a Special Experience Identifier (SEI). This alternative career management approach would prioritize pilot agency, career stability, and location predictability over mere financial compensation, successfully retaining the vital talent and experience needed to fly the Nation's leaders.
• Clinch, Erin, "Educational Advantages in Blue: Analyzing the Impact of Enlisted Educational Opportunities on Air Force Retention," AFGC thesis 2025, 50 pgs.
  • Clinch identifies a massive disparity in how career progression and education are handled between officers and enlisted personnel. While officers receive structured, career-aligned education, enlisted members must navigate voluntary education on their own time, which can actually increase the risk of early separation if they earn a degree without seeing a matching career opportunity inside the service. To fix this and improve retention, Clinch proposes an alternative model for enlisted career progression that explicitly integrates civilian degree completion into the enlisted career pathway. She recommends overhauling the "Informed Decision" program to counsel Airmen on the return on investment of Air Force education, granting formal promotion board recognition to Airmen who earn degrees early in their careers, and partnering with universities to establish an "Air Force Virtual University" to provide free, accredited bachelor's programs tailored to the Air Force's specific technical needs.
• Corbett, Capt. John, "BBP on Bridging the Gap: Addressing Dental Technician Training for Mission Readiness," SOS AUAR 2025, 15 pgs. 
• Dill, CDR Erik S., "Flight Plan for Full Strength: Boosting Staffing in Naval Aviation's Strike/ Fighter Communities," AFGC thesis, 2024, 43 pgs. 
• Edwards III, Capt. Henry et al, "Familiarization Initiative Team--Task Force FIT," SOS AUAR, 2024, 11 pgs.  
• Erchinger, Capt. Christian et al, "Preparing Families for Modern Conflict," SOS AUAR 2024, 17 pgs. 
• Fagot, Capt. David J., "BBP on Housing at Ramstein AB, Germany," SOS AUAR, 2025, 1 pg.
• Flick, Lt. Col. Ridge, "$10 Million to Make a Fighter Pilot, But How Do You Keep One?" AFGC 2025, 44 pgs.  
  • Flick answers this question by focusing on the critical skill set of experienced fighter pilots, noting that the Air Force faces a 2,000-pilot shortage that threatens both frontline squadrons and warfighting command capabilities. He argues that the current retention model—the aviation bonus program—fails because it offers compensation that is significantly lower than major airlines and forces pilots to trade their autonomy and agency (via Active Duty Service Commitment extensions) for money, which inherently demotivates them. To solve this, Flick proposes alternative models for both retention and career progression: increasing the maximum bonus to $125,000 per year, introducing a "true bonus" program that does not require a service commitment extension, and offering multiple career tracks that allow experienced pilots to choose between a dedicated flying track or a traditional leadership and staff track.
• Gilbert, Capt. Benjamin, et al, "BBP on Improving Mental Health Support," SOS AUAR, 2025, 3 pgs. 
• Gilkeson, Maj. Angela S., "Air Force Reserve Aircrew Travel Pay: Breaking the Cycle of Delayed Pay and Rejected Vouchers," AFGC thesis, 2024, 52 pgs. 
• Gillaspy, Capt. Jacquelyn et al, "Homesteading," SOS AUAR, 2024, 9 pgs. 
• Haynes, Capt. Allyson, "White Paper on Recruiting and Retention: GI Bill Amendment," SOS AUR, 2024, 10 pgs.
• Hlavin, Capt. Kibby S. et al, "BBP on Electronic Health Records Access for Teenage Dependents," SOS AUAR, 2025, 2 pgs. 
• Lloyd, Maj. Jonathan, "Keep 'Em Flying: Utilizing the Total Force to Retain Pilots," AFGC thesis, 2025, 45 pgs. 
• Marietta, Maj. Kelli, "The Shrinking Pool of Recruits: The Growing National Security Crisis," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 52 pgs.  
• Martin, Maj. Meleah, "Beyond Barriers: Investigating the Impact of Limited Military Healthcare Coverage for Assisted Reproductive Technologies on Recruitment and Retention," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 43 pgs. 
• Matthews, Lt. Col. Lindsay, "Understanding Public Service Motivation in American Military Servicemembers and Government Civilians," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2020, 30 pgs. 
• McDaniel, Lt. Col. Michael, "Building the Force: A Historical Look at the Elements of Successful Military Mobilization," AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2020, 28 pgs. 
• Miller, Maj. Rachel J., "Families in the Fight: AFFORGEN's Impact on Dual-Career Families," AFGC thesis, 2025, 37 pgs. 
  • Miller argues that the Air Force is suffering retention issues because its policies rely on an antiquated "traditional family" model (a single breadwinner with a stay-at-home spouse), ignoring the modern reality that more than half of active-duty families are dual-career. She notes that 63% of military spouses report underemployment, and dual-military couples (who make up 11.1% of the force) often separate from the service because they cannot align their career goals or face extended time apart. To retain the experienced professionals needed for strategic competition, Miller recommends overhauling Military Family Readiness (MFR) programs to actively support spouse career progression and enable "role-cycling"—a strategy that helps dual-career couples balance major career transitions without forcing one member to sacrifice their trajectory.
• Ojala, Wayne A., "Air Force Embedded Service Delivery: Reducing High Risk Behavior," AFGC thesis, 2025.
  • Ojala answers this by arguing that in an era of historic recruiting shortfalls, the military must aggressively prioritize retention by institutionalizing embedded support models that save careers. He provides qualitative evidence showing how M&FRC embedded consultants have successfully intervened to help Airmen resolve severe financial and personal crises, ultimately allowing them to maintain their security clearances and remain in the service. By demonstrating a genuine interest in Airmen's welfare, the embedded model has stabilized separation rates; for example, one high-risk maintenance squadron saw its annual separations drop from 92 prior to the program's implementation to a stabilized average of 60 afterward. Ojala concludes that the M&FRC embedded initiative successfully improves retention and force shaping without requiring any additional funding or manpower, making it a sustainable blueprint for the broader military.
• Pazak, Col. Stephen M., "The Recipe for Sustaining the All Volunteer Army," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2020, 29 pgs. 
• Phelps, Sally A., "The Art of Improving Low-Level Conflict Resolution," AFGC thesis, 2025.
  • Phelps answers this question by arguing that conflict resolution and mediation are critical, value-added skill sets that must be systematically incorporated into the career progression and development of all first-line supervisors. She notes that while the Air Force has successfully applied continuous process improvement frameworks (such as Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century) to its production and business practices, it has significantly neglected to apply these same improvement techniques to personnel practices. To improve workforce retention and efficiency, Phelps recommends equipping first-line supervisors with managerial and team mediation skills, which would enable them to resolve destructive interpersonal disputes at the lowest possible level. This proactive approach would prevent conflicts from escalating into costly, time-consuming external interventions—such as formal equal opportunity complaints—and foster a more resilient, mission-focused workforce.
• Raymond, Lt. Col. Anthony, "Improving Air Force Commander Training for Effective Talent Management," AWC paper, 2025, 36 pgs.
• Rybar, CDR Aaron, "Naval Aviation Retention & The Cost of Retaining Tomorrow's Senior Leaders," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2019, 27 pgs.
• Scott, Lt. Col. Jarrod, "Undergraduate Pilot Training 2.5: The Pilot, The Formal Training Unit, and the Operational Squadron," AF Global College, 2024, 43 pgs.  
• Sliger, Lt. Col. Jill N., "Airline Pilot or Air Reserve Technician? The Impact of the Mobility Pilot Retention Crisis on the Department of the Air Force," AFGC thesis, 2026.
  • Sliger answers this by examining the severe retention crisis among Air Reserve Technician (ART) mobility pilots—a highly specialized skill set constantly targeted by aggressive commercial airline hiring. To better recruit and retain this talent, Sliger proposes alternative models for career progression, arguing that the Air Force must create formalized programs (similar to the Weapons School) that value and reward technical flying expertise, rather than strictly pushing pilots toward command-track roles. Additionally, she suggests altering recruitment approaches by granting dual-status ARTs the same Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act (USERRA) protections as Active Guard and Reserve (AGR) members, which would remove the legal and financial employment risks for civilian airline pilots who want to serve in temporary full-time Reserve roles.
• SOS AUAR Team (Furlong et al), "Bullet Background Paper on Constructive Credit," SOS AUAR, 2024, 2 pgs. 
• Spiro, Maj. Trevor, "Reshaping Talent Management in the USAF to Develop Better Leaders," AF Global College thesis, 2025, 39 pgs. 
• Stanley III, Lt. Col. Dale W., "Changing the Paradigm: Developing an Aviator Technical Track," AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2018, 30 pgs.
• Stewart, Melissa, "The Military's Recruitment Crisis: Insufficient Interest from America's Youth and Young Adults," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 43 pgs. 
• Taboada, Maj. Raymond, "Blind Spots: Systemic Issues within the Security Forces Enterprise," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 33 pgs.
• Vidt, Courtney M., "The Quiet Crisis: An Institutional Analysis of Squadron Commander Selection in Air Mobility Command," SAASS thesis, 2025, 117 pgs.