The world 's great (and near-great) powers are experiencing different economic, demographic, technological, and military trends. The interaction of these trends will drive changes in the global power balance in the future strategic environment. If current trends persist, will the United States's power vis-a-vis Russia and China be more positive or negative? How will increasing use of AI-enabled decision-making structures change the strategic and operational levels of war? Do Russian and Chinese leadership use game theory to make decisions, and, if so, how can we introduce higher variance in decisions to take advantage of that methodology? What activities at the micro and macro level are most effective in impacting Chinese and Russian decision-making and behavior?
- Cheap, Capt. Nolan C., "Shifting Alliances: Sino-Russian Relations and US Policy in the Middle East," AFGC thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
- Cheap answers this by arguing that if the current trend—which he identifies as a Sino-Russian "alliance of convenience"—persists, the trajectory for U.S. power in the Middle East will be decidedly negative, as America will no longer be able to operate as freely as it did in the early 21st century. He warns that this persistent baseline of cooperation actively strengthens authoritarian regimes, threatens predictable energy markets, and emboldens proxy conflicts against U.S. interests. To reverse this negative trend and protect its influence, Cheap recommends that the U.S. must abandon outdated policies and instead deliberately exploit the differences between Chinese and Russian interests while securing advantageous economic and military partnerships with local Middle Eastern states.