Tailored Integrated Deterrence in a Multipolar World

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Developing nuanced deterrence strategies for state and non-state actors with varying nuclear capabilities and risk tolerances (e.g., Russia, China, North Korea, Iran). D.I.M.E. model along with nuclear capabilities.


  • Bergin, Capt. Connor T., "Beyond Brinksmanship: How Evolving Nuclear Deterrence Endangers Strategic Stability," AFGC thesis, 2025, 43 pgs. 
    • Bergin answers these topics by exploring the profound challenges of a fragmented, multipolar nuclear landscape where the US must simultaneously deter Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. He argues that multipolarity undermines the predictable, binary logic of Cold War extended deterrence, introducing unpredictable escalation pathways through overlapping alliances and asymmetric capabilities. To adapt to this crowded strategic arena, Bergin recommends shifting away from grand multilateral treaties to focus on developing flexible, region-specific arms control agreements targeting specific high-risk behaviors, while continually reaffirming extended deterrence commitments through joint exercises and integrated defense planning.
  • Thrasher, Maj. Michael, "Doomed to Succeed? Understanding Nuclear Deterrence and Its Past and Future Roles in National Security," AF Global College thesis, 2024, 36 pgs.