Modeling and Simulating Multi-Competitor Deterrence in a Dynamic Geopolitical National Security Environment

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  • By AFGSC ST

During the Cold War, the United States and NATO utilized  the instruments of power (i.e., diplomatic, informational, military, and economics) to deter the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.  In the 21st Century, however, the United States must now deter multi-competitors in a much more dynamic geopolitical environment, forcing senior leaders to consider multiple cultural norms and environments in which to operate (e.g., kinetic, cyber, space, etc.). Additionally, they must also consider how actions taken to deter one, may exacerbate or force unintended confrontations and/or engagements with others.  Having the ability to model and simulate a multi-party, a multi-geopolitical, three-dimensional, "chess board" will enable senior leaders to more effectively operate inside potential adversaries' OODA Loops.

References: "Arms and Influence", Thomas Schelling, 1966; "The End of History and the Last Man", Francis Fukuyama, 2006; "The Return of History and the End of Dreams", Robert Kagan, 2009; "Destined for War:  Can America and China Escape Thucydide's Trap?", Graham Allison, 2017; "Mananging Nuclear Operations in the 21st Century", Charles Glaser, Austin Long, Brian Radzinsky, 2022; "America's Strategic Posture", 2023;