Ground-Based Fuel Ecosystem

Analyzing the entire ground-based fuel ecosystem, including the enabling activity of fueling tanker aircraft, to what extent will the bases in the FIC and SIC be able to generate CAF sorties as constrained by fuel considerations to meet JFC objectives in the 2029-2041 timeframe?

• Barnes, Maj. Geoffrey T., "Airpower as a Cottage Industry: Exploring Sortie Generation Capacity from Dispersed Bases," AFGC thesis, 2024, 54 pgs.
  • Barnes answers the prompt by modeling sortie generation capacity as a direct function of an airport's fuel storage and delivery infrastructure. The study reveals that relying on dispersed Agile Combat Employment (ACE) sites in the Indo-Pacific instead of Main Operating Bases (MOBs) will result in significant capacity shortfalls, as most civilian and contingency locations lack the massive fuel tanks and heavy maintenance facilities required to sustain high-intensity combat operations. By conducting a quantitative analysis of historical sortie rates and current airfield capabilities, Barnes concludes that the lack of fuel infrastructure at dispersed bases will drastically reduce CAF sortie production, meaning the Air Force may be unable to match the operational tempo required to meet JFC objectives in a protracted conflict without surging at elevated risk or drastically expanding the number of operational airfields.
• Barry, Capt. Zachary M. et al, "MAF Support to the Integrated Combat Turn," SOS AUAR, 2021, 13 pgs. 
  • Details the logistical constraints of generating F-16 sorties from austere bases without organic support, evaluating the use of C-17s to deliver fuel alongside ecosystem elements like Forward Area Manifold (FAM) carts and Aerial Bulk Fuel Delivery Systems (ABFDS).
• Combs III, Cullen, "China Raising the Stakes in the South China Sea: Preventing Freedom of Navigation of the Bomber Task Force," AFGC thesis, 2022, 48 pgs.  
  • Addresses constraints within the FIC and SIC by explaining that China's anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) threats force vulnerable U.S. tanker aircraft out of the unrefueled combat radius of most fighters, severely limiting CAF sortie generation and necessitating a reliance on long-range bombers.
• Cruden, Maj. Davi S., "Clipping the Dragon's Wings: Gaining and Maintaining Air Superiority in the South China Sea," AFGC thesis, 2020, 50 pgs. 
  • Answers the query by highlighting the "tyranny of distance" in the South China Sea, noting that the astronomical "gas bill" and the necessity of complex air-to-air refueling operations heavily constrain power projection and require agile basing to prevent mission failure.
• DiCapua, Lt. Col. Nicholas, "Adaptive Basing and the A-10C Enterprise," AWC SSP, 2020, 30 pgs. 
  • Explores the ground-based fuel ecosystem limitations under the Adaptive Basing construct, illustrating that a four-ship of A-10s requires up to 130,000 pounds of fuel for a surge, vastly exceeding the 23,000-pound capacity of standard flight line fuel trucks at austere locations.
• Diehl, Maj. Justin L., "The New Tactical Airlift: AMC/SOF Integration, New Mission-sets and How to Do It," AF Fellows (AMC), 2014, 38 pgs.
  • Addresses fuel ecosystem challenges by proposing that C-130s, C-17s, and KC-46s execute "ground-refueling" missions, offloading excess fuel into storage bladders on remote Pacific islands to sustain distributed fighter operations.
• Drumm, Christopher, "Agile Combat Employment Running on Fumes: Air Force's Challenges to Fuel the Pacific," AFGC thesis, 2023, 58 pgs. 
  • This study evaluates the constraints of the ground-based fuel ecosystem by highlighting how the closure of strategic fuel reserves (like Red Hill) and the lack of hardened, high-capacity fuel infrastructure at dispersed airfields in the Pacific will severely restrict aircraft sortie generation. Drumm specifically notes that most airfields in the First and Second Island Chains are unsuitable for large tanker operations due to inadequate runway lengths and a lack of hydrant capabilities, causing aircraft to overwhelm the few capable bases. The author quantifies these fuel constraints by demonstrating that supporting a dispersed fleet of fighters, bombers, and tankers across seven locations would require nearly one million gallons of fuel daily, revealing a massive gap between current logistical capabilities and the fuel required to meet JFC objectives in a future near-peer fight.
• Forristal, Maj. Ryan M., "Red Light, Green Light: The Importance of Partners in a Contested Logistics Battle near the South China Sea," AFGC thesis, 2025, 40 pgs. 
  • This paper examines how existing War Reserve Materiel (WRM) posture and logistics support are insufficient to deal with China's anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the South China Sea. Forristal highlights that current Air Force WRM plans are only designed to support short-duration operations under 30 days, which falls dangerously short for the distributed, fuel-heavy nature of Agile Combat Employment (ACE) maneuvers. Because the U.S. will likely lose freedom of movement to resupply its forces via traditional sea and air lines, the author concludes that JFC objectives cannot be met using the current supply posture without aggressively partnering with friendly nations in the region to share supply stocks, fuel, and prepositioned equipment.
• Kroll, Maj. Steven J., "A Novel Solution to Power Generation on Austere Air Bases," AFGC thesis, 2024, 54 pgs. 
  • Addresses the ground-based fuel ecosystem from the perspective of base operating support, explaining how reducing the demand for diesel fuel indirectly enables greater CAF sortie generation. The paper highlights that transporting fuel to power austere contingency locations puts supply chains at extreme risk, noting that fuel and water accounted for 70-90% of all logistical operations in past conflicts. By transitioning base power generation to solar arrays, battery storage systems, and small modular reactors (SMRs), the military can eliminate the need for vulnerable fuel convoys dedicated to base electricity, thereby freeing up critical strategic airlift and sealift to transport the aviation jet fuel required to generate combat and tanker sortie.
• Messer, Maj. Jessica et al, "Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in the Pacific: Understanding Limitations and Informing Supply Chain Design Improvements to Enable Successful Air Operations in the Pacific Theater," AF Fellows (JMF, St. Louis University), 2023, 35 pgs. 
  • This paper directly answers the question by modeling the end-to-end aviation fuel supply chain in the Pacific, mapping the distribution from large wholesalers to Main Operating Bases (MOBs) in the Second Island Chain (SIC) and finally to Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) in the First Island Chain (FIC). The authors calculate the daily fuel demand for a Combat Air Force (CAF) Agile Combat Employment (ACE) package—consisting of fighters, tankers, and airlift—at roughly 25,000 barrels per day. They determine that the current "pull" logistics system will struggle to meet this future demand, but by switching to a "push" system and adding seven more Offshore Service Vessels, the supply chain capacity can be increased by up to 100% to generate and sustain the necessary combat sorties for JFC objectives.
• Nickell, Maj. Ryan J., "War with a Heavyweight: Stealth Fighters and China," AFGC thesis, 2020, 45 pgs. 
  • Specifically evaluates the ability of Combat Air Forces to generate effective sorties from bases in the SIC (Guam) into the FIC (the South China Sea) when severely constrained by fuel and combat radius. While it focuses heavily on the airborne fuel ecosystem, it underscores that CAF sorties are entirely dependent on high-value tanker aircraft to extend their range past the 1,240-nautical-mile threat ring of Chinese cruise missiles. By highlighting that fighters like the F-22 and F-35 cannot meet JFC objectives in the FIC without secure air-to-air refueling, the paper implicitly reinforces that protecting and sustaining the ground-based fuel infrastructure supplying those tankers in the SIC is the critical enabler for the entire campaign.
• Owen, Robert C., "Basing Strategies for Air Refueling Forces in Antiaccess/Area-Denial Environments," AFRI, 2015, 32 pgs. 
  • Addresses the enormous ground-based fuel requirements necessary to enable tanker aircraft operations in the First and Second Island Chains (FIC and SIC). The paper highlights that a disaggregated expeditionary unit of six KC-46s flying three maximum offload sorties per day would consume about 620,000 gallons of fuel daily. To prevent fuel considerations from constraining Combat Air Force (CAF) sortie generation, the paper suggests that the military must utilize agile sea-basing concepts and rely on expeditionary fuel systems—such as the Amphibious Assault Bulk Fuel System (AABFS) and Tactical Airfield Fuel Dispensing System (TAFDS)—to establish functional fuel ecosystems at austere airfields within regions like the Philippines' Bohol Sea.
• Strabley, Maj. Joseph M., "A Contested Horizon: Conducting Logistics against a Near Peer Adversary," AFGC thesis, 2023, 37 pgs. 
  • Examines the broader logistical constraints of generating and sustaining sorties in the Indo-Pacific, where the "tyranny of distance" and A2/AD threats target critical logistical hubs. The paper asserts that to meet Joint Force Commander (JFC) objectives and the demands of the Air Tasking Order (ATO), the military must integrate artificial intelligence to establish a predictive resupply system for fuel and munitions. By automating resupply and utilizing prepositioned assets afloat or via bilateral agreements, bases can maintain the necessary "Days of Supply" to continuously generate CAF sorties before local ground-based fuel nodes run dry.
• Trucco, Maj. Anthony, "Fuel Capacity in the Pacific Theater," ACSC Elective Paper (Logistics and the Use of Military Force), 2023, 15 pgs. 
  • Trucco addresses the question by analyzing the severe vulnerabilities of the Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) infrastructure across the First and Second Island Chains, emphasizing that without significant upgrades, these fuel nodes are prime targets for Chinese long-range strikes. The paper notes that current operations rely heavily on vulnerable Defense Fuel Support Points (DFSPs) scattered across Japan, South Korea, Okinawa, Singapore, Guam, and the Mariana Islands. By assessing the severe deficit in maritime tanker capacity needed to move fuel between these island chains and the susceptibility of above-ground fuel storage to attack, the author concludes that the DoD currently lacks the fuel capacity and resilient infrastructure required to sustain high-tempo air operations in the near future unless significant investments and legislative changes are made.
• Walsh, LtCol Sean, "Enhancing Fuel Support to Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations through Autonomous Unmanned Technologies," AWC SSP, 2020, 32 pgs. 
  • Answers how the Joint Force can overcome fuel distribution constraints in A2/AD environments by utilizing autonomous unmanned platforms across all domains to reliably supply fuel to stand-in forces operating from austere expeditionary bases.
• Young, Maj. Ryan H., "Hiding in the White Noise: Special Operations Logistics in the Pacific," ACSC EL (Logistics and the Use of Military Force), 2023, 15 pgs. 
  • Discusses the vulnerability of traditional, concentrated fuel and supply hubs in the Pacific and outlines how the current "hub-and-spoke" logistics model is too brittle to survive near-peer strikes. To ensure that fuel constraints do not completely halt sortie generation, the paper recommends creating randomized forward caches of fuel and employing armed, modified civilian fast ferries to distribute fuel and munitions to austere locations. Distributing the ground-based fuel ecosystem in this manner complicates adversary targeting and ensures friendly forces have the resilient maritime logistics necessary to sustain combat operations.