This research focuses on the continuity or change in Russian perceptions of NATO defense and deterrence, particularly with increased European burden-sharing, and changes in perceptions of U.S. homeland defense, strategic stability, and strategic deterrence. How does Russian military cooperation and alignment with China, North Korea, Iran, and India generate new threats and challenges for the United States? What are the long-term implications of these relationships for Russia’s strategic objectives?
- Sino-Russian Security Cooperation & Competition (RSI EUCOM): What are the opportunities and challenges surrounding Sino-Russian cooperation, and how are they competing?
- Abravanel, Maj. Ran, "The Three-Dimensional Conflict: Understanding Russia's International Alignments," ACSC elective paper (The Russian Mind), 2023, 12 pgs.
- Cabrera, Lt. Col. Steven, "Chinese Military, Airpower and Implications," AWC elective paper, 2020, 9 pgs.
- Cheap, Capt. Nolan C., "Shifting Alliances: Sino-Russian Relations and US Policy in the Middle East," AFGC thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
- Cheap answers this question by employing a scenario-based framework that outlines how the Sino-Russian relationship could evolve from an "axis of convenience" into either "intensified strategic cooperation" or "strategic competition". He explains that their mutual interest in unseating the United States as a global hegemon creates cooperative opportunities, leading to joint naval drills, technology sharing, and synergistic economic agreements. However, he also details how Russia and China are competing for finite natural resources, arms export markets, and geopolitical influence, warning that their overlapping ambitions for hydrocarbon energy and regional partnerships could eventually devolve into strategic competition or even open hostility.
- Engstrom, Maj. Shera, "The Chinese-Russian Military Relationship: An Enduring Alliance of a Fair-Weather Friendship?" GCPME thesis, 2023, 46 pgs.
- Ford, Justin G., "The Big '3' Shapeshifters: Examining a Russia-China-North Korea Cooperation," GCPME paper, 2024, 40 pgs.
- Harper, Col. Reginald, "Sino-Russian Relations Outlook," AWC elective paper, 2020, 10 pgs.
- Houk, Ethan, "Humiliation, Pride and Envy: Chinese and Russian Historical Motives for Twenty-First Century Competition," SOS AUAR/ISR paper, 2022, 17 pgs.
- O'Connor, Maj. Robin E., "Changing U.S. Foreign Policy Climate for a Warmer Arctic: Examining the Utility of UNCLOS in Pursuit of Arctic Objectives," AFGC thesis, 2025, 56 pgs.
- O'Connor explains that following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent suspension from cooperative forums like the Arctic Council, Russia has shifted its Arctic alignment toward China. The two nations established an agreement in 2022 to cooperate in the Arctic and have subsequently conducted bilateral military exercises—incorporating the PRC's People's Liberation Army—in the Bering Strait. O'Connor notes this military alignment and the increase in aggressive rhetoric reflect a broader fortress mentality where Russia views the West as an existential threat, presenting new strategic challenges to the U.S.-led rules-based order in the polar north.
- Patel, Maj. Milan S., "Strategic Thaw: How Russian-Chinese Partnerships in the Arctic Challenge U.S. Interests and Alliances," AFGC thesis, 2025.
- This alignment generates new threats for the United States by increasing Sino-Russian military collaboration, such as joint bomber patrols near the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone, and by enabling China's "Polar Silk Road" infrastructure development along the Northern Sea Route. While they cooperate on challenging U.S. global influence and extracting regional resources, Patel notes they also face competitive challenges and long-term divergences; Russia asserts strict sovereign control and regulatory authority over the Northern Sea Route, whereas China advocates for open access and argues that non-Arctic states should have a voice in regional governance.
- Rowland, Lt. Col. Daniel T., "Chinese Security Cooperation Activities: Trends and Implications for US Policy," ACSC paper, 2021.
- Taylor, Jeremy W., "China and Russia: Strategic Partnership or Secret Alliance?" Air War College Strategic Studies Paper, 2020, 30 pgs.
- Turner, Mark A., "China's War in Ukraine: The Sino-Russian Partnership and Great Power Competition," Russia RTF paper, 2023, 25 pgs.
- Iran-Russia Relations (RSI EUCOM): What does the Kremlin perceive as challenges or opportunities with this relationship?
- Abravanel, Maj. Ran, "The Three-Dimensional Conflict: Understanding Russia's International Alignments," ACSC elective paper (The Russian Mind), 2023, 12 pgs.
- Asisian, Njdeh, "Iran, China and the Future World Order: Unipolarity or Multipolarity?" published as an AU Press Kenney Paper on Indo-Pacific Security Studies, 2022, 48 pgs.
- Evans, Capt. Stephanie, "Exploiting the Alliance: Identifying Methods for the U.S. to Counteract the Advantages of the Russia-Iran International Partnership," AFGC thesis, 2025, 37 pgs.
- Evans explains that despite a long history of mutual distrust, Russia and Iran have formed a powerful strategic alliance across Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) domains to counter Western sanctions and project power in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The Kremlin perceives significant opportunities in this relationship, particularly by importing vital Iranian military equipment (such as UAVs and artillery) to sustain its war in Ukraine, and by collaborating on oil exports to boost its isolated economy. However, the Kremlin faces challenges because Russia's desire to act as a regional peacekeeper and its relationship with Israel directly conflict with Iran's goal of achieving Shia dominance in the Middle East, creating an underlying fragility in their alliance.
- Hayworth, Dr. Jordan R., ed. "Operation Inherent Resolve: Insights and Perspectives from Air University," Published by AU Press, 2023, 332 pgs.
- Russia-Belarus Cooperation (RSI EUCOM): What are the opportunities and challenges here?
- Guida, Maj. Christopher A., "Surprise! Strategies for Successful Military Advantages and Family Festivities," AF Fellows paper, 2024, 13 pgs.
- This paper addresses the strategic opportunity Russia has in using Belarus as a proxy territory from which to initiate conflicts and stretch adversary defenses, as it did during the invasion of Ukraine. It also identifies a challenge to this cooperation in the form of civilian opposition, noting that hundreds of Belarusians have actively joined Ukraine's military efforts to fight against Russian imperialism rather than support their own government's state-level cooperation with Moscow
- Hickey, Col. Mark, "Inflection Point: A Study of Small Uncrewed Aerial Systems Usage in the Russia-Ukraine War," AWC, Kenney Air Power Seminar paper, 2024, 24 pgs.
- This paper highlights the tactical military opportunities of the alliance, noting that Belarus allows Russia to use its installations, such as Machulishchy Air Base, to stage aircraft, control patrols, and coordinate long-range missile strikes into northern Ukraine. A significant challenge surrounding this military cooperation is violent domestic pushback from non-military Belarusian partisans. These partisans successfully deployed low-cost, small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) to attack and damage a highly valuable Russian A-50 Mainstay aircraft parked in Belarus, demonstrating active internal resistance to the Russian military presence.
- Isom, Joshua M., "2022 Russian-Ukrainian War: Analysis Using Three Deterrence Models," SAASS thesis, 2025, 77 pgs.
- This paper explains that Belarus provides Russia with a crucial regional ally that acts as a geographic barrier against NATO forces in Poland while sharing a strategic border with Ukraine. This cooperation presented Russia with the opportunity to conduct massive joint military exercises and secure regional backing ahead of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, a major challenge to the cooperative relationship is Russia's underlying imperialist ambition; a leaked 2021 Russian strategy document outlined Kremlin goals to eventually annex Belarus in a similar manner to Ukraine.
- Turek, Maj. Frank Z., "Nationalism and the Church: A Comparison of the Russian Orthodox Church (2014-Present) and the German Evangelical Church (1933-1945)", ACSC/Russia RTF paper, 2024, 21 pgs.
- This paper discusses cooperation and integration opportunities through the lens of religion and nationalism. It explains that the Russian Orthodox Church champions the concept of "Holy Rus," which presents an opportunity to spiritually and culturally bind Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine together under a single structure. This religious cooperation supports the Kremlin’s broader nationalist "Russian World" ideology and provides justification for its geopolitical efforts to unify the region.
- Russo-Turkish Relations (RSI EUCOM): What does the Kremlin perceive as challenges or opportunities?
- Driggers, Maj. Paul, "Influence and Intrigue: The Bear, the Crescent and Transcaucasia," ACSC paper (Russia Research Task Force), 2024, 38 pgs.
- Hayworth, Dr. Jordan R., ed. "Operation Inherent Resolve: Insights and Perspectives from Air University," Published by AU Press, 2023, 332 pgs.
- Russian Relationships with Regional States (RSI EUCOM): What are Russia's relationships, challenges, and opportunities with Balkan States, Indo-Pacific States, and South American States?
- Lancaster, Maj. James, "The Future of Indo-Russian Arms Transfers: Diverging Interests and a Future Model for Joint Ventures," ACSC paper (Russia Research Task Force), 2024, 23 pgs.
- Van Stone, Maj. Daniel P., "The Failure of Sanctions against Russian Oil," AF Fellows paper (Legislative Fellow), 2024, 2 pgs.
-
Akhmetova, Aigerim T., "Armenia-Azerbaijan Wars: Looking for Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution," AUAR SOS elective paper (ISR), 2021, 10 pgs.
- Buck, LTC Christopher M., "NATO Expansion & Georgia: Challenges in a Volatile Europe," AWC PSP 2022, 33 pgs.
- Burns, Capt. Patrick, "Comparing the Military Posture of NATO Forces with that of Russian Forces in and around the Baltic Region," SOS AUAR, 2021, 7 pgs.
- Cîrjău, Commander Adrian, Romanian Air Force, "Strategy and Military Transformation on NATO's Eastern Flank," AWC PSP, 2020, 24 pgs.
- Cîrjău, Commander Adrian, Romanian Air Force, "Security Implications of the Russification Policy" , AWC elective paper, 2020, 10 pgs.
- DeArco, Angelo, "Russian Hybrid Threats during the Libya Civil War: Lessons Learned and Their Applicability to a Baltic States Scenario," SOS AUAR paper, 2020, 9 pgs.
- Dolan, Capt. Joseph A., "In their Words: Russian A2/AD Characteristics in the Baltics," SOS AUAR paper, 10 pgs.
- Driggers, Maj. Paul, "Influence and Intrigue: The Bear, the Crescent and Transcaucasia," ACSC paper (Russia Research Task Force), 2024, 38 pgs.
- Fineran, Col. Thaddeaus D. "Russian Military Reform after the 2008 Georgian War," AWC elective paper, 2019, 8 pgs.
- Hays, Capt. Joseph M., "Escalation in the Baltics: An Overview of Russian Intent," SOS AUAR, 2020, 10 pgs.
- Ince, Capt. Daniel, "The Russian Anti-Access/Area Denial Security Issue over Kaliningrad and the Baltics," SOS AUAR, 2021, 11 pgs.
- Kane, Lt. Col. Jason, "US Basing Presence in Eastern Europe," AWC elective paper, 2019, 7 pgs.
- Magnusson, Lt. Col. Niclas (Swedish AF), "Russia and the Baltic," AWC elective paper, 2019, 12 pgs.
- Magnusson, Lt. Col. Niclas (Swedish AF), "The Security Dilemma in the Baltic Sea Region," AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2020, 34 pgs.
- Mastalski, Capt. Michael, "Russia's Implementation of Hybrid Warfare: Estonia, Georgia, Crimea," SOS AUAR, 2021, 14 pgs.
- Reinecke, Capt. Christopher, "The Kaliningrad Dilemma: A Nuclear Flashpoint," SOS AUAR, 2021, 11 pgs.
- Street, Lt. Col. W. Austin, "Russia's Declining Power Means Opportunity Ahead: Why the Outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Matters to the United States," AF Fellows paper (Stanford University), 2024, 3 pgs.
- Szczepanski, John T., "Kaliningrad's Place in Russia and Europe: Implications of the February 2022 Russian Escalation in Ukraine and Prospects for Future Engagement with Kaliningrad," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2023, 23 pgs.
- Tempia, Maj. Matthew, "Russia, NATO and Key Countries," ACSC elective paper, 2019, 12 pgs.
- Theurer, Capt. William, "USAF intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Enterprise: Priority Efforts and Challenges in Support of a Baltic Crisis," SOS AUAR paper, 2020, 8 pgs.
- Vidal, Lt. Col. Brus, "Understanding Key Base Politics Factors when Considering Potential Basing Locations: Lessons from the Kyrgyzstan Model" AWC elective paper, 10 pgs.
- Watson, Capt. John D., "Russia's Recent Conquests and Long-Term Strategy in the Arctic," SOS AUAR, 2021, 16 pgs. (Published on Wild Blue Yonder, 2 July 2021)
-
BLACK SEA/CAUCASUS REGION
- Bass, Maj. Jordan, "Crimea as a 'Shatterzone': Russia, the United States and a Re-Colonization Process," ACSC elective paper (Putin's Russia), 2020, 15 pgs.
- Cîrjău, Commander Adrian, Romanian Air Force, "Basarabia," AWC elective paper, 2020, 12 pgs.
- Harris, Bryan, "Influence and Identity: Russian Activity and Its Impacts in Ukraine," AWC elective paper, 2019, 9 pgs.
- Peisker, Lt. Col. Daniel (German AF), "The Russian-Ukraine Relationships in the Energy Sector: A Case of Failed Coercion?" AWC elective paper, 2020, 14 pgs.
- Peisker, Lt. Col. Daniel (German AF), "German-Russian Gas Relations: Cause for European Divide or Eurasian Bridge?" AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2020, 33 pgs.
- Schnell, Maj. Andrew T., "The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: An Analysis of the Effect of Information Operations on Kinetic Operations," AF Fellows paper (Johns Hopkins), 2023, 27 pgs.
- Tecuceanu, Col. Emil F. (Romanian AF), "The Status Quo of Romanian-Russian Relations," AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2018, 25 pgs.
- Thomspon, Maj. Clayton, "Black Sea Basing: Deterring Russia's Ability to Influence the Region," ACSC elective paper, 2019, 10 pgs.
- What is Russia’s Theory of Competition? (RSI EUCOM): Analyze Russia's Theory of Competition.
- Evans, Capt. Stephanie, "Exploiting the Alliance: Identifying Methods for the U.S. to Counteract the Advantages of the Russia-Iran International Partnership," AFGC thesis, 2025, 37 pgs.
- Evans answers that Russia views conflict as a scalable continuum rather than a binary state of war or peace. Their theory of competition relies heavily on hybrid warfare and "gray zone" activities—such as employing proxy forces, cyber-attacks, and misinformation—to challenge US strategic objectives while maintaining anonymity. By utilizing ambiguity, non-state organizations like the Russian Business Network, and unmarked military personnel ("little green men"), Russia creates confusion that delays attribution and limits the ability of the US to respond effectively.
- Tarman, Col. Gürhan (Turkish AF), "Is Russia in the Middle East to Stay?" AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2018, 31 pgs.