Considering the geopolitical landscape of Africa, which nations offer the most strategic value for partnerships aimed at promoting security and stability to prevent the export of terrorist activities and/or to provide access to critical minerals? Within these high-priority nations, how can the Department of War best support private investment opportunities to enable co-development and coproduction in industries that could support US interests? Ultimately, which engagement strategies (for example, security-sector reform, capacity building, joint exercises, or private-sector economic support) provide the greatest return on investment, both immediately and over the long term?
- Akintunde, Gp Capt Ewejide (Nigerian AF), "The Great Power Competition between the United States and China: Implications for Nigeria's On-Going War on Terrorism," AWC SSP, 2020.
- This report positions Nigeria as a vital African ally possessing critical energy resources, natural wealth, and a prominent role in continental stability. To support national security and compete with Chinese economic statecraft (which injected $8 billion into Nigeria's infrastructure and agriculture by 2018), the author suggests that the United States must ease bureaucratic bottlenecks and deliver military equipment and security assistance in a timely manner. The paper recommends utilizing the bilateral US-Nigeria Bi-National Commission to directly align assistance with what partner countries actually need, while exploring cooperative ventures (such as space programs) to build trust and prevent Nigeria from seeking exclusive military and economic ties with rival great powers.
- Allen, Maj. David R., "Countering China's Rare Earth Resource Grab in Africa," AFGC thesis, 2020.
- This paper identifies Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa, and Namibia as nations offering supreme strategic value for partnership due to their vast, unmined reserves of critical rare earth elements. To counter China's aggressive economic expansion and its predatory, resource-collateralized loan models (such as the "Angola model"), the author recommends that the United States support private sector development by encouraging direct investments by U.S.-friendly corporations and leveraging global financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank to build indigenous capacity. Ultimately, the study suggests that a combination of diplomatic and economic soft power instruments—specifically hosting high-level multilateral summits to establish policy parity with China and utilizing targeted direct financial aid—provides the greatest return on investment to protect the U.S. defense supply chain and secure long-term geopolitical alliances.
- Ayala, Maj. Alexis R., "Relying on China's Rare Earths Supply Can be Dangerous for the US," AFGC thesis, 2023.
- Highlights the strategic value of African nations in securing independent supply chains for critical minerals, noting that the continent contains 99 discovered rare earth element deposit sites scattered across 27 countries. Ayala identifies Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Angola, and Malawi as the African nations possessing the highest concentrations of these critical minerals. To counter China's aggressive, long-established economic and diplomatic footholds—such as its $124 billion credit line to mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo—the paper suggests that the U.S. must prioritize establishing and building strategic partnerships with African allies to secure long-term mining and processing contracts. These engagements align with the National Security Strategy’s goals of ensuring secure and reliable critical mineral supplies to properly equip technologically advanced defense weapons.
- Bartholomew, Lt. Col. Casey, "Nigeria: The Past, Present and Future," AWC SSP, 2020.
- This paper highlights Nigeria as "the single most important strategic partner for the United States in sub-Saharan Africa," given its position as the continent's largest democracy, economy, and population. The author notes that the United States can best support private-sector investment by continuing to partner with major U.S. companies (such as Google, Chevron, and KPMG, which invested over a billion dollars in Nigeria in 2018) and utilizing structured agricultural development frameworks. The paper argues that long-term security is best achieved by shifting from patron-client dynamics to collaborative economic partnerships, highlighting the success of the five-year Feed the Future Nigeria Country Plan that directly connects local farmers with suppliers to stimulate market growth.
- Belcher, Brandon, "Special Operations in Somalia: Strategies for Success in the Horn of Africa," AFGC thesis, 2025.
- Examines Somalia as a high-priority, fragile state where al-Shabaab exploits governance vacuums along the Horn of Africa, creating a regional security threat that directly impacts neighboring Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. The paper argues that military-first containment and direct action decapitation campaigns are insufficient for long-term stabilization, costing billions while failing to achieve lasting peace. Instead, the Department of War should support the State Department’s Integrated Country Strategy by prioritizing security force assistance to train host-nation armies to maintain their own security. Crucially, the study notes that the military can support inclusive, resilient economic growth and counter VEO recruitment by partnering with civilian agencies to distribute humanitarian aid and economic grants to local businesses. This strategy addresses the underlying human security root causes of terrorism by providing populations with legal, prosperous livelihoods as an alternative to violent extremism.
- Lombardo, Dominic, "Navigating the Relationship of Sport and Security: Exploring African Security Challenges via Olympic Participation Rates," ACSC EL 2023.
- Explores how the U.S. can utilize soft power and sport diplomacy to build partnerships and relieve pressure in fractured areas of Africa. Featuring Ghana and Somalia as key case studies, the paper illustrates how regional security challenges can dismantle a nation's governance, stability, and sporting capacity. To support stability and governance, the author recommends using soft power initiatives to engage with local communities and national institutions. Lombardo demonstrates that diplomatic and social investments can provide valuable strategic returns by rebuilding civic trust, local governance, and capacity in fragile regions.
- Martin Maj. Jeremy A., "The Missing Variable: The Role of Legal Culture in Counterinsurgency Operations," AFGC thesis, 2019.
- Uses Burkina Faso as a critical case study to demonstrate that Western security assistance and joint training exercises, such as the annual multi-agency Flintlock exercise, cannot succeed in a vacuum. Martin explains that despite the millions of dollars spent by France and the US to train and equip Burkinabe security forces and establish counterterrorism judicial units, suspects languish in pretrial detention because of a cultural refusal by local lawyers to represent them in court out of fear of reprisal. Therefore, traditional capacity building and physical equipment transfers will yield a poor return on investment if military planners do not first conduct a comprehensive "legal culture analysis" to target the root societal and institutional issues of the host nation. Long-term stability is only achievable when planners align military training with the host nation's local legal frameworks, moving past simple quantitative spending metrics to focus on systemic, permanent rule of law accountability.
- McBride, Maj. Lukhma, "The Chadian Way of War: Implications for Operations in the Sahel," SAASS thesis, 2025.
- Positions Chad as a high-priority partner offering immense strategic value for U.S. counterterrorism and regional stability efforts in the Sahel. As the region's most battle-hardened force, Chad's military is uniquely capable of combating local insurgents, Boko Haram, and Islamic State affiliates, while serving as a crucial counterweight against Russian-backed subversion efforts spearheaded by the Wagner Group. Rather than applying generic Western templates, McBride argues that the U.S. can best maximize its return on investment by directly supporting Chadian-led regional security frameworks like the G5 Sahel and tailoring advising, partnership, and security operations to Chad's specific combat realities. Supporting Chad’s military effectiveness ultimately strengthens a rules-based order in the region and reduces the appeal of Russian security alternatives.
- Moss, Tytus M., "Guns, Butter and Narratives: The Real Version of Rock, Paper, Scissors," SAASS thesis, 2025.
- Offers a data-driven framework to assess African nations of strategic value to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (DIB), noting that 37 of the top 50 foreign aid recipients are in Africa or Asia. Ranging countries specifically for critical mineral supply chain resiliency, the study identifies Congo as a critical partner due to its top-tier cobalt reserves, and Madagascar for its substantial cobalt and rare earth element (REE) deposit rankings. It also notes that South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania hold important reserves of REEs and lithium. To leverage these high-priority nations, the paper recommends establishing strategic, long-term economic security agreements to build co-production facilities or secure mineral access, specifically emphasizing partnerships with Congo and South Africa to deter and exploit adversary dependencies. Moss argues that integrating these nations into a globally distributed production and material network provides the greatest long-term strategic return on investment by creating a distributed deterrence posture.
- Natalini, Maj. Amy et al, "Human Security and Great Power Competition in Africa: Balancing the Future Needs of USAFRICOM," ACSC 2020.
- Prioritizes highly valued, resource-rich sub-Saharan African states—such as Nigeria, Kenya, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—where global powers compete to secure mineral access and counter the spread of Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) like Boko Haram and al-Shabaab. The study warns that previous unilateral military containment strategies stretch resources to the breaking point without improving underlying issues. Instead, the Department of War can best support stability and long-term US interests by shifting toward "African solutions for African problems," directly investing in and building the capacity of local sub-regional security organizations like ECOWAS, G5 Sahel, and the African Union. Combining security assistance with economic development is critical to success; direct investments to local organizations would allow states to manage debt, reduce human security vulnerabilities, and prevent disenfranchised populations from turning to illicit or extremist networks.
- Pearson, Capt. Benjamin, "Russia: Applying the Low Cost, High Return Syrian Strategy to Africa," SOS AUAR, 2021.
- Focuses on the strategic landscape of Libya, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Mozambique, where Russia uses low-cost hybrid tools—specifically arms sales and Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) like the Wagner Group—to secure exclusive mineral concessions (gold, diamonds, oil) and challenge Western influence. The paper notes that because Moscow’s strategy relies on low budgets for disproportionately high political returns, the United States can effectively counter these advances by raising the cost of Russian partnerships. Strategic engagements should focus on exposing PMC human rights abuses and military failures to degrade Russia's prestige, while utilizing targeted economic tools like the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to financially penalize African leaders who purchase Russian weapon systems. This targeted cost-imposition strategy allows the US to protect its interests and regional stability without matching the massive footprint of strategic competitors.
- Poindexter, Col. Eugene, "US Military Leadership and Support of AMISOM," AWC SSP, 2019.
- Details the strategic value of the Horn of Africa and nations like Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, which are critical to regional security and maritime commerce. The study illustrates how the Department of War can execute a highly efficient "by, with, and through" strategy to train, advise, and equip partner militaries. Engagement strategies like the State Department's Africa Contingency Operations Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program provide a massive return on investment by standardizing military decision-making and universal tactics. This capability is reinforced through Joint Combined Exchange Training (JCETs) and by helping regional leaders establish a joint readiness training center (specifically in Ethiopia). To sustain these efforts and secure long-term stability, Poindexter argues that the U.S. must resolve elongated fielding timelines and ensure robust, coordinated programs managed through localized embassies.
- Rajosefa, Maj. Laura, "The Future of Strategic Competition in the Sahel Region: Placing Partnership First," ACSC, 2023.
- Addresses strategic prioritization in West Africa and the Sahel (Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad), highlighting that these countries sit at the crossroads of critical economic corridors and possess vast untapped resources like oil, uranium, natural gas, and lithium. For instance, Mali's Goulamina project represents one of the largest lithium deposits globally, making the region a primary theater for countering China’s monopolistic resource capture and securing strategic access. Rather than relying solely on hard military power, the paper notes that the United States should leverage economic frameworks like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Power Africa, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation to offer transparent, sustainable development alternatives to China's opaque, debt-heavy Belt and Road Initiative. To achieve the highest long-term return on investment, the paper recommends a flexible "assess and advise" counterterrorism posture combined with regional cooperation through local partners like ECOWAS and an increased emphasis on anti-corruption efforts in the mining and energy sectors.
- Rimbach, Charles A., "Availability of Critical Minerals Sourced from the People's Republic of China and Concerns about Supply Chains," AWC SSP, 2022.
- Addresses the critical mineral dimension by highlighting the strategic threat of China's near-monopolistic control over essential materials like cobalt and lithium on the African continent. China owns eight of the fourteen largest cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), securing thirty percent of global output, which forces the United States and its partners to actively seek alternative supply lines. To support private investment and enable co-development, the paper outlines how politics and economics should be leveraged to secure access, suggesting that the U.S. government should encourage private technology firms to form specialized cooperatives to extract, separate, and process these materials domestically or in partner nations. Additionally, Rimbach proposes that forming multilateral bodies like a critical resources principals board with close allies can help coordinate strategic mineral investments and build a secure, diversified defense industrial base that reduces long-term vulnerability to foreign economic coercion.
- Stevens Maj. Philip J., "Reshaping Global Dynamics: US Strategies in Response to China's Military Build-Up in Eastern Africa," AFGC thesis, 2024.
- Highlights Djibouti and the broader Eastern African region as containing critical strategic value due to China's expanding military presence near the vital Bab el-Mandeb shipping strait. The paper notes that while the 2022 National Security Strategy prioritizes partnerships with larger democracies—specifically Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa—the U.S. must move beyond its historically narrow focus on disrupting violent extremist organizations. To best counter China's influence, Stevens recommends a multi-layered approach that enhances military cooperation, provides security assistance, and supports private-sector-led economic development and diversification. Rather than relying on rigid Western templates, the Department of Defense should help regional governments assert sovereignty by supporting local infrastructure projects and prioritizing sustainable investments in healthcare, education, and technology to build long-term resilience against external interference.
- Swenarski de Herrera, Lisa "U.S. Global Health Diplomacy," AWC SSP, 2019.
- This paper focuses on South Africa, designating it as a vital regional partner due to its massive $300 billion economy, extensive mineral resources, and political influence. To strengthen bilateral relationships and advance strategic interests, the author details how the United States spent nearly $6 billion on HIV/AIDS prevention through PEPFAR and Project Phidisa. While noting that health investments do not immediately yield transactional political leverage, the paper argues that global health diplomacy provides a powerful long-term return on investment by reinforcing state capacity, stabilizing local economies for viable trade, and mitigating the socio-economic chaos that breeds regional conflict.
- Thiam, Lt. Col. Babacar, "How to Improve Security Assistance for the Sahelian Countries Using Lessons Learned from Previous US SOF Engagements in the Region: Case Study Mali," AWC SSP, 2017.
- This paper examines how to optimize security assistance in the Sahelian region, identifying Mali, Senegal, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad as critical focus areas due to transnational terrorist threats. The author advocates using U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) as the primary tool for security sector assistance because their small footprint is politically acceptable to host-nation governments and operates at a fraction of the cost of conventional deployments. Rather than merely training tactical units, the paper concludes that the greatest long-term return on investment is achieved by building auto-sustainable military institutions, professionalizing officers through programs like the Africa Military Education Program (AMEP), and diplomatically empowering regional bodies like ECOWAS to enable cross-border security cooperation.
- Toney, Capt. Wenonah, "BBP on Building Leaders to Effectively Counter the CCP's Whole of Government Approach to Competition," SOS AUAR, 2024.
- Touches upon China's massive economic influence in Africa, noting that the People's Republic of China offered $50.7 billion in infrastructure investments across the continent during the September 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. The paper argues that to counter this comprehensive grand strategy, U.S. leaders must respond cohesively using all instruments of national power—specifically understanding how to deploy and coordinate diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools to protect U.S. interests and build resilient strategic partnerships.
- Umar, Gp. Capt. Mohammed Bello, "Recalibrating International Peace and Security Efforts in the Sahel," AWC SSP, 2022.
- This study focuses on the central Sahelian nations of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mauritania to address the intersecting crises of violent extremism and state fragility. To maximize the efficiency of American efforts, the author recommends that the United States consolidate its fragmented, ad-hoc funding streams into a single, unified aid program that supports cohesive, long-term development. The paper argues that purely militarized counterterrorism strategies fragment humanitarian space and alienate local populations, meaning that the highest return on investment comes from a strategy prioritizing human security, public service delivery, and selective political negotiations with non-state armed actors.