Emerging Threats & TTPs of UAV/UAS against Military Installations
TOPIC SPONSOR: 423 MTS
Antiterrorism training aims to provide insights into possible (or real) threats against military facilities and installations. The low cost of entry for UAV/UAS use means that this is a new means of surveillance and harmful activity against defense operations and service members – both overseas and at home. What are examples of emerging threats of UAVs/UASs and TTPs of those groups that employ them?
- Allen, LtCol Zachary S., "Invisible to the Drone's Eye: Leveraging New Concepts and Technology to Safeguard Marine Aviation against the Unmanned Threat," AFGC thesis, 2026, 40 pgs.
- Utilizing the Russia-Ukraine war as a case study, Allen details how adversaries have perfected a rapid "finder-killer" model. Adversaries use high-altitude ISR drones (like the Orlan-10) and mass swarms of cheap First-Person View (FPV) drones to locate targets, drastically compressing the kill-chain to mere minutes before striking. These autonomous swarms can overwhelm base defenses and impose a staggering asymmetric cost-exchange ratio, where an adversary can risk a $2,200 drone to destroy a $125 million U.S. helicopter.
- Anderson, Maj. Richard, "Exploiting Offensive Use of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS): Learning from Our Adversaries," AF Fellows paper (Department of Homeland Security), 2024, 2 pgs.
- Griffin, Col. Ethan C., "Turbulent Skies: Regional Stability Implications of Unmanned Aerial Systems," AF Fellows paper, 2015, 33 pgs.
- Hickey, Col. Mark, "Inflection Point: A Study of Small Uncrewed Aerial Systems Usage in the Russia-Ukraine War," AWC Strategic Studies Paper (Kenney Airpower Seminar), 2024, 23 pgs. Winner of the AWC Joint Air Power Award
- Johnson, Capt. Kyna, "The Threat of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) against Mobility Air Force (MAF)," SOS AUAR paper, 2020, 10 pgs.
- Klokun, Anton, "Bullet Background Paper on Mobile Counter-UAV Weapon Technology," SOS AUAR, 2023, 3 pgs.
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Musselwhite, Kenneth O., "Army CONUS Installations: Protected, but Still at Risk," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2020, 28 pgs.
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Sutton, Kelvin, "An Explorative Paper on Current and Future Strategies for Improving Radar Track Continuity using AI-assisted Predictive Modeling," SOS AUAR Ideas and Weapons, 2023, 5 pgs.
- Tedder, Capt. Nathan L., "Research and Development Strategy: Next-Generation Technology Defeat Mechanisms," SOS AUAR elective Paper, Ideas and Weapons, 2021, 7 pgs.
- Thompson, Col. Kristen D., "How the Drone War in Ukraine is Transforming Conflict," AF Fellows research, published by the Council on Foreign Relations, January 16, 2024.
- Tittinger, Maj. James E., "Preparing for the Rain: Defending USAFE from Russia's Standoff Capabilities," AFGC thesis, 2025, 43 pgs.
- Using the war in Ukraine as a case study, Tittinger details Russia’s extensive use of the Shahed-136, a cheap, delta-wing OWA UAV. He explains that Russia’s TTPs involve launching these drones in massive, combined waves alongside cruise missiles to overwhelm air defense systems. When initial strikes against military targets failed to yield swift victories, Russia adapted its TTPs to use these drones against civilian infrastructure—such as electrical grids and transportation hubs—to instill chaos and drain the adversary's air defense interceptor stockpiles.