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Special Warfare Airmen with the New Jersey Air National Guard’s 227th Air Support Operations Squadron fast rope from a UH-1Y Venom helicopter with Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 773 during training on Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, N.J., Oct. 10, 2019. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Matt Hecht)

Planning for the Unexpected

Published April 22, 2026
By 480 ISRW
480 ISRW

TOPIC SPONSOR: 480 ISRW

How might we more effectively plan for unexpected, or “black swan” events, that might negatively affect critical military operations?

Basped, Capt. Herman, "Black Swan Planning: A Review of Iran and Turkey," SOS AUAR 2022, 9 pgs.
Guida, Maj. Christopher A., "Surprise! Strategies for Successful Military Advantages and Family Festivities," AF Fellows paper, 2024, 13 pgs.
- Subsequently published in Wild Blue Yonder (August 19, 2024)
Kearney-Kurt, Christine, "Overcoming Strategic Blind Spots in Airlift Operations," AFGC thesis, 2025, 35 pgs.
- Kearney-Kurt observes that unexpected obstacles inevitably derail airlift plans, such as desperate evacuees swarming the runway during ALLIES REFUGE, looters attacking convoys during Typhoon Haiyan, or sudden extreme weather shifts. Because these events demand rapid improvisation, she argues that traditional contingency planning is too slow and inefficient. Instead, she recommends shifting away from highly specific plans toward agile frameworks that can be rapidly updated, ensuring that unexpected variables don't collapse the entire operation's timeline.
Schuster, Capt. Kyle R., "Posturing against the Unknown: Mitigating Black Swan Events in the Indo-Pacific," SOS AUAR 2021, 2022