Planning for the Unexpected
TOPIC SPONSOR: 480 ISRW
How might we more effectively plan for unexpected, or “black swan” events, that might negatively affect critical military operations?
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Basped, Capt. Herman, "Black Swan Planning: A Review of Iran and Turkey," SOS AUAR 2022, 9 pgs.
- Guida, Maj. Christopher A., "Surprise! Strategies for Successful Military Advantages and Family Festivities," AF Fellows paper, 2024, 13 pgs.
- Higgins, Christopher J., "Strategic Planning for Refugee Integration into the United States: Lessons Learned from Afghan Resettlement Post 2021," SAASS thesis, 2025, 77 pgs.
- Higgins answers how the government can better plan for the unexpected shocks of mass evacuations and sudden refugee influxes by mandating the use of the Joint Planning Process (JPP) prior to a crisis. He highlights that the rapid collapse of Kabul and the ensuing emergency airlift constituted an unexpected crisis that overwhelmed overseas "lily pad" transit facilities and domestic resettlement agencies precisely because there was no unified contingency plan in place. To effectively prepare for such unpredictable scenarios, Higgins recommends drafting contingency legislation, establishing pre-coordinated screening capacities with allied bases, and formalizing interagency responsibilities during the shaping phase of operations. By formally scoping refugee integration as a multi-agency effort tied to national objectives through meticulous Mission Analysis, planners can proactively define constraints, assign resources, and ensure that sudden global displacements do not fracture national security or operational readiness.
- Kearney-Kurt, Christine, "Overcoming Strategic Blind Spots in Airlift Operations," AFGC thesis, 2025, 35 pgs.
- Kearney-Kurt observes that unexpected obstacles inevitably derail airlift plans, such as desperate evacuees swarming the runway during ALLIES REFUGE, looters attacking convoys during Typhoon Haiyan, or sudden extreme weather shifts. Because these events demand rapid improvisation, she argues that traditional contingency planning is too slow and inefficient. Instead, she recommends shifting away from highly specific plans toward agile frameworks that can be rapidly updated, ensuring that unexpected variables don't collapse the entire operation's timeline.
- Schuster, Capt. Kyle R., "Posturing against the Unknown: Mitigating Black Swan Events in the Indo-Pacific," SOS AUAR 2021, 2022