Topic Sponsor: PACAF
Provide a historic analysis of PRC military provocation toward Taiwan through the lens of politics (US administration, PRC leadership, TWN leadership), PRC military capabilities, US regional posture, economic context, and information environments.
- Albert, Maj Stephen, "Defense of Taiwan is in the U.S. National Interest" Air Force Fellows paper, 2022, 2 pgs.
- Answers the question by tracing the historical context of PRC military provocations, spanning from the 1954 and 1958 Taiwan Strait Crises to a massive 150 percent increase in Taiwanese airspace incursions by the PRC in 2021. Through a political lens, the paper examines the evolution of the U.S. "One-China Policy" and the Taiwan Relations Act, emphasizing the U.S. administration's commitment to defending Taiwan's democratic values against the PRC's broader trend of authoritarian suppression. Regarding military capabilities and U.S. regional posture, Albert notes that Taiwan currently resides within the PRC's formidable anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) umbrella; consequently, he argues the U.S. must rely heavily on diplomatic alliances and regional staging areas—such as the Quad, the Philippines, and South Korea—to prevent China from projecting power through the first island chain. Economically, the paper highlights the immense global stakes of this standoff by pointing out that PRC control over Taiwan would directly threaten the $3.4 trillion in annual ship-borne commerce traversing the South China Sea.
- Alves, Capt. Brent A., "Taiwanese Sovereignty & The United States' Strategic Deterrence of China," SOS AUAR 2021 (ISR section), 11 pgs.
- Answers the query by exploring the historical relationship between the U.S., Taiwan, and China since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. It highlights the economic context of the PRC's military provocation, noting that China's tremendous economic growth funded a 640 percent increase in its defense budget between 1996 and 2014. The paper outlines the political "red lines" of the PRC leadership—such as Taiwan seeking formal independence, acquiring nuclear weapons to deter invasion, or becoming too friendly with an outside power—that would trigger a military response. It concludes that because the U.S. regional posture can no longer rely solely on military dominance to deter China, it must adapt by leveraging multinational diplomatic agreements.
- Brown, Lt. Col. Edward C., "The Case for Taiwan: Lessons Learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis," SAASS thesis, 2022, 120 pgs.
- Answers the question by providing a historical analysis of the dispute over Taiwan, utilizing the Cuban Missile Crisis as an analogue. It explores the political and military evolution of the conflict from a minor regional dispute in 1949 into the centerpiece of modern great power competition, driven largely by China's rapid economic rise and subsequent military modernization. The paper deeply examines Chinese military capabilities regarding blockades and amphibious invasions, the U.S. regional posture and its strategy for intervention, and the critical role of the information environment, noting how China actively utilizes covert networks and false flag operations to establish a "pretext" for war.
- Clark, Capt. Evan S., "Chinese Information Warfare Strategy Pertaining to Annexation of Taiwan," SOS AUAR, 2021, 16 pgs.
- Addresses the query by historically tracing Chinese military provocations from the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crises in 1954 and 1958 up to the modern era. The paper explains that after failing to take Taiwan via direct military beach landings and artillery barrages against U.S.-backed Taiwanese forces, China's military strategy evolved. Today, China relies heavily on manipulating the information environment and utilizing a Russian-style "gray-zone" warfare model—employing propaganda, cyber operations, public defamation, and coercion—to delegitimize the Taiwanese government and coerce the population without triggering a conventional military response from the U.S. and its allies.
- Cobbins, Capt. Natalia K., "Taiwanese Sovereignty & The United States' Assurance and Dissuasion Alliance to Combat Chinese Use of Force," SOS AUAR, 2021, 11 pgs.
- Addresses the question by examining the political lenses of the PRC, Taiwan, and the U.S. since 1949. It highlights how Taiwanese domestic politics—specifically the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen and the ideological split between the Pan-Blue (pro-unification) and Pan-Green (pro-independence) coalitions—interact with Beijing's strict "One China" principle and "red line" threats of military force. The paper assesses the U.S. regional posture of "strategic ambiguity" under the Taiwan Relations Act, warning that any U.S.-Sino contingency over Taiwan would be disastrous economically and diplomatically on a global scale.
- Cullen, LCDR Michael J., "Chip Troubles: Understanding the Effects of a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan," AFGC thesis, 2023, 49 pgs.
- Explores PRC military provocation toward Taiwan by historically analyzing the threat and implications of a Chinese naval blockade, prominently utilizing the aftermath of the 2022 US Speaker of the House visit as a political catalyst for recent escalation. The paper assesses the shifting military capabilities of both nations, demonstrating how the PRC's massive naval expansion allows it to execute blockade campaigns that physically isolate the island. From an economic context, Cullen thoroughly details Taiwan's vulnerabilities, specifically its reliance on energy imports and its critical role in global semiconductor manufacturing, illustrating how a blockade would devastate both the regional and global economy. Furthermore, the research evaluates the US regional posture by modeling scenarios both with and without US military intervention, ultimately highlighting how the PRC leverages these aggressive military maneuvers and economic threats to coerce Taiwanese leadership and deter US involvement without officially crossing the threshold of conventional war.
- Garrison, Maj. John, "Strategic Messaging Implications for Military Reactions in the Taiwan Strait," AF Global College thesis, 2025, 148 pgs.
- Answers the question by conducting a comprehensive historical analysis of the People's Republic of China's (PRC) military reactions to United States and Taiwanese strategic messaging from 2014 to 2024. Politically, the paper analyzes the dynamics between different US presidential administrations, Taiwan's shifting leadership (from the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou to the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te), and the PRC's aggressive rhetoric under Xi Jinping. The author evaluates PRC military capabilities and provocations by charting Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) incursions, missile launches, and large-scale encirclement exercises (like Joint Sword), correlating them directly with US regional posture actions such as arms sales and high-level diplomatic visits. Furthermore, Garrison addresses the economic context—such as US-Taiwan economic integration talks—and provides an extensive analysis of the information environment. The paper demonstrates how the PRC utilizes state-run media, cyber tactics, and its "Three Warfares" doctrine to signal deterrence, manipulate public sentiment, and synchronize (or fail to synchronize) its rhetorical threats with physical military provocations against Taiwan.
- Gibson, Glen, "First Strike Deterrence: A Bold Stance against China's Threat of a Forced Unification with Taiwan," AWC SSP, 2024, 26 pgs.
- Assesses the escalating threat of a cross-strait invasion through the historical and political lens of President Xi Jinping's commitment to the "Great Rejuvenation" and the closing window of military opportunity. The author details the specific PRC military capabilities required for an amphibious assault and proposes altering the US regional posture by deploying SSGNs to threaten a credible first strike against Chinese vessels. In evaluating the ramifications of this strategy, the paper addresses the global economic context, the potential for economic easements, and the historical responses of China to previous US military posturing in the Indo-Pacific.
- Kirklin, Russell J., "It's a We Said, Xi Said Kind of Situation: Analyzing CCP Perceptions of US Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea," SAASS thesis, 2020, 107 pgs.
- Answers the question by analyzing US-PRC strategic messaging and military provocations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea across the Obama and Trump administrations. Through an evaluation of the information environment—specifically English-language Chinese state-controlled media reactions—the author explores the political sensitivities of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) toward Taiwan and US regional posture. The paper highlights how the PRC reacts to US military capabilities and Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the Strait, noting that the CCP's rhetoric and physical military responses are historically tied to the PRC's identity and its intense political reaction to events like US arms sales to Taiwan.
- Lamarand, Lt. Col. Jesse, "Deterring China: A Deterrence Approach Based on Understanding the Sources of Chinese Conduct and Chinese Campaign Science " AWC PSP, 2021, 29 pgs.
- Answers the question by tracing modern PRC military provocations toward Taiwan back to the historical trauma of the "Century of Humiliation" and the Confucian political obligations of President Xi Jinping. The author evaluates Chinese military capabilities, emphasizing that the PRC's campaign science focuses on achieving regional air superiority and total information dominance before executing an invasion. To counter this, the paper argues that the US must adapt its regional posture by strengthening C5ISR resilience and maintaining a forward military presence that imposes unacceptable economic and military costs on China, thereby deterring aggression through a deep understanding of Chinese strategic culture.
- Moore, Lt. Col. Tytonia S., "The Paradox of the China Threat," AWC SSP, 2019, 26 pgs.
- Provides a broad historical review of US-China relations and the competing interests that drive regional provocations, with a specific focus on Taiwan. The paper analyzes the political friction between the PRC's "One China Principle" and the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party's push for independence, noting how US support for Taiwan complicates diplomatic relations. Additionally, the author evaluates China's use of economic power and military coercion to assert sovereignty in the region, arguing that the US must carefully balance its regional posture and security commitments to protect international norms without provoking a direct great power conflict over Taiwan.
- Mundy, Matthew, "How Taiwan Can Turn China's Blockade against Itself," AWC paper (Taiwan Deterrence team), 2025, 21 pgs.
- Does not provide a historical analysis of past PRC military provocations, but rather addresses the prompt's themes by proposing a strategic counter-blockade in the event of a future PRC attack. The paper addresses the economic context and PRC military capabilities by assessing China's heavy reliance on maritime trade through strategic choke points like the Malacca and Hormuz straits. To exploit this, Mundy suggests Taiwan use "gray zone" tactics to entangle the propellers of Chinese commercial ships and the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). Additionally, Mundy touches upon the US regional posture by highlighting the proximity of the US 5th Fleet in the Middle East to potential counter-blockade operations, relying on US regional dominance to deter horizontal escalation from nations like Iran or Russia.
- Owen, Maj. Christian R., "Will China Invade Taiwan? :Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine," AFGC thesis, 2024, 59 pgs.
- Provides a historic analysis of PRC military provocation toward Taiwan by establishing a predictive framework based on lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Through a political lens, the paper examines Taiwan's internal shifts toward independence and the evolving US regional posture, particularly highlighting the Biden administration's public departure from traditional "strategic ambiguity" regarding US military intervention. To assess the information environment, Owen analyzes the PRC's creation of Jus ad Bellum (justification for war) through state-sponsored disinformation and escalating rhetoric designed to undermine Taiwanese governmental legitimacy. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the economic context by comparing how both Russia and China historically attempt to harden their economies and supply chains against Western sanctions prior to initiating conflict. By combining these political, informational, and economic indicators with an assessment of the PRC's significant military buildup and supreme confidence in its modernized military capabilities, Owen illustrates the exact historical warning signs that would precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
- Pickett, Lt. Col. Bryan, "Clausewitz's Trinity: From Theory to Application in Joint Planning," AWC SSP, 2020, 34 pgs.
- Answers the question by using the China-Taiwan conflict as a case study to demonstrate how military planners must account for political, emotional, and chance-based elements of warfare historically. The author analyzes the political history of the PRC's 40-year objective of unification, comparing it against the historically inconsistent policies of the US administration and the political climate within Taiwan. Furthermore, the paper evaluates how China utilizes economic pressure, media warfare, and grey zone activities within the information environment to influence both Taiwanese and American populations, demonstrating that the US must synchronize its military posture and informational messaging to effectively deter Chinese coercion.
- Smith, Maj. Michael A., "Chinese Capacity to Conduct a Joint Forcible Entry of Taiwan, Viewed through Materiel Acquisitions," SAASS thesis, 2023, 109 pgs.
- Evaluates China's historical military modernization and its capacity to conduct a Joint Forcible Entry (JFE) against Taiwan, tracking the strategic timeline from the Obama administration's 2009 "Pivot to Asia" through the present. The research frames PRC military provocation through the shifting political relationships between the US, China, and Taiwan, noting how diplomatic rhetoric has increasingly translated into hostile military intent. By scrutinizing Chinese materiel acquisitions—such as multidomain advancements, amphibious transportation, and joint command and control—Smith highlights the rapid expansion of PRC military capabilities and their direct threat to Taiwanese sovereignty. The paper also incorporates the economic context by proposing the use of GDP growth and military expenditures to measure China's readiness to sustain a conflict. Ultimately, Smith argues that these acquisitions fundamentally alter the US regional posture and the broader South China Sea security dilemma, providing a tangible metric to understand when the PRC might shift from political posturing in the information environment to kinetic military action.
- Stinson, Joshua S., "Stubborn Giants: Assessing Resolve between the United States and China," SAASS thesis, 2020, 123 pgs.
- Answers the question by applying an analytical resolve framework specifically to the 1995 and 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. The paper reviews the geopolitical history and domestic politics of the U.S., China, and Taiwan, highlighting the political leadership dynamics surrounding Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. It analyzes China's military provocations—specifically the July 1995 surface-to-surface ballistic missile tests near Taiwan—and the resulting economic context, noting that the tests disrupted maritime shipping, altered commercial aviation flight paths, and caused Taiwan's stock market to plummet. Furthermore, the study assesses how U.S. regional posture, along with U.S. actions related to proliferation and human rights, interacted during this critical superpower standoff.
- Taylor, Maj. Ryan J., "A Cresting Wave: Optimizing Dynamic Force Employment to Avoid Defeat in the South China Sea," AFGC thesis, 2021, 59 pgs.
- Answers the question by analyzing the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1996 as a pivotal historical turning point for PRC military capabilities and U.S. regional posture. When Taiwan's electorate appeared ready to favor independence-leaning candidate Lee Teng-hui, China engaged in military provocations via extensive missile tests and amphibious landing exercises. The U.S. countered this aggression by asserting its regional posture, deploying two carrier battle groups and a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the strait. The paper explains that China's realization of its inability to counter U.S. power projection at that time catalyzed its massive economic and military buildup, leading to the advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities that now threaten U.S. hegemony.
- Waldrip, Erik, "Has the Ukraine War Influenced China's Calculus for an Invasion of Taiwan?" GCPME thesis, 2024, 48 pgs.
- Directly answers the question by analyzing how historical context and the Russia-Ukraine War impact China's calculus for invading Taiwan. Through a political and historical lens, the paper traces the Chinese Communist Party's "One China" policy back to the Chinese Civil War and the "Century of Shame" to contextualize current PRC leadership's drive for reunification. Waldrip thoroughly addresses the economic context by detailing how China is attempting to sanction-proof its economy through initiatives like "Made in China 2025," securing Russian energy, and leveraging multipolar organizations like BRICS. Furthermore, the paper evaluates evolving PRC military capabilities—such as the rapid expansion of the maritime militia for sealift capacity—and contrasts this with the US regional posture, highlighting US efforts to strengthen Indo-Pacific alliances and fund the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to deter aggression.
- Young, Lt. Col. Adam, "Winning the Hider-Finder Fight in Taiwan," AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2025.
- Partially addresses the question by focusing on PRC military capabilities and Taiwanese and US leadership strategies, rather than providing a broad historical analysis of provocations. The paper evaluates the political and military leadership of Taiwan, contrasting the official 2021 Quadrennial Defense Review—which prioritizes conventional deterrence—with the "Overall Defense Concept," which argues that Taiwan's forces must prioritize survivability against a massive People's Liberation Army Joint Firepower Strike Campaign. To ensure Taiwan's military can survive this initial bombardment, Young recommends that both Taiwan and the US establish "hider-finder red teams" to emulate PRC intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. This approach aims to test Taiwanese defensive tactics and inform US regional posture and acquisitions, ensuring the US properly fulfills its legal obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act