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Strategic Blind Spots in Modern Conflict

  • Published
  • By JSOU

TOPIC SPONSOR: JSOU

Blind spots, or the inability to see something clearly despite evidence, can be caused by a wide variety of factors, from inherent or learned biases to preconceived notions and “mirror imaging” (seeing ourselves in the “other”).  Are there useful methods of blind spot analysis that could be utilized to uncover obsolete, incomplete, or incorrect assumptions? What role do historical case studies play in overcoming blind spots? How can the study of lessons learned from recent operations provide valuable insights to help the DoD avoid these pitfalls?

 

  • Hedberg, Maj. Anders, "The Dieppe Raid: Foundation for Combined Operations in WWII," ACSC Elective Paper (WWII and the Operational Art), 2020, 21 pgs. 

  • Litz, Lt. Col. Nathan A., "Avoiding Accepted Blind Spots in Strategic Assessment," GCPME thesis, 2023, 40 pgs. 

  • McFarlane, Maj. Brandon L, "Precision vs. Strategy: Evaluating the Joint Targeting Enterprise's Role in Achieving U.S. Long-Term Objectives," AFGC thesis, 2025, 42 pgs. 

    • McFarlane relies heavily on historical case studies—spanning the Vietnam War, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—to expose a massive strategic blind spot in modern U.S. military doctrine: the incorrect assumption that "tactical precision equals strategic success." His analysis uncovers that despite technological advancements, the Joint Targeting Enterprise (JTE) repeatedly fell into the same historical pitfalls, such as relying on presence-based profiling that defaults to treating all military-aged males in a strike zone as combatants. To help the DoD avoid repeating these mistakes, McFarlane recommends that historical targeting failures be formally integrated into professional military education and targeting schoolhouses to reinforce ethical awareness and strategic foresight.

  • Nelson, Maj. Erik C., "The Short War Expectation: German Perceptions and Cognitive Mechanisms Leading into World War I," SAASS thesis, 2023, 96 pgs. 

  • Raudy, Maj. Kristine Anne Laughlin, "Extreme Heat and Military Operations: Evaluating Health Risks and Mitigation Strategies," AFGC thesis, 2025, 60 pgs. 

    • Raudy's health surveillance data uncovers a major strategic blind spot regarding the military's obsolete assumptions about heat risk. She reveals that current military doctrine is flawed because it relies strictly on high ambient temperatures to trigger heat stress measures. Her research proves this assumption incorrect, showing that 84% of heat exhaustion and heat stroke incidents occur on days without black flag conditions, and 20% happen when conditions don't even meet military thresholds. She also exposes a massive blind spot in medical surveillance, noting that up to 62% of outpatient heat exhaustion cases and 45% of outpatient heat stroke cases go entirely unreported in the military's DRSI system. To fix this, she recommends recalibrating heat stress thresholds to account for moderate conditions and mandating real-time.