RSI aims to understand Russian messaging, signaling, and likely contributors to misinterpretation and miscalculation. This includes understanding Russian thinking on strategic deterrence and escalation management, relevant decision-makers, their threat perceptions, and their worldview. How are Russian perceptions and approaches to strategic deterrence changing? What are the implications for future Russian signaling and actions? How do Russian thinkers consider improving their ability to manage escalation against the U.S.? What new ideas are under consideration?
Russian Views on Deterrence, Escalation Management and Conflict Termination (RSI EUCOM): What are the Russian views and theories on these topics?
- Bowron, James, "Russian Battlefield Losses: Why Russia Will Rely on Nuclear Threats When Dealing with the West in the Future," Russia RTF, 2023, 35 pgs.
- Juarez, Maj. Carlos, "Russia's Nuclear Weapon Use in Modern Times," AFGC thesis, 2025, 44 pgs.
- Juarez directly answers this by examining Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" (or "escalate to terminate") strategy. He explains that if a high-intensity crisis is turning decisively against Russia, its doctrine supports intentionally escalating the conflict—potentially through a demonstrative or tactical nuclear strike—to rapidly compel the adversary to stop fighting on terms favorable to Moscow. He notes that this is widely recognized by experts as a deceptive political action meant to manipulate enemy perception, leveraging the fear of full-scale nuclear war to force an opponent's withdrawal.
- Perry, Major Frank, "Rose Colored Glasses: How Western Mirroring Could Result in Inadvertent Nuclear War with Russia," ACSC Russia RTF, 2022, 18 pgs.
- Sahl, LTC Joe, "Undeterred: Analyzing the Persistent Russian Threat to NATO and Future Implications for NATO and the United States," Regional Studies paper, AWC, 2024, 7 pgs.
- Szczepanski, John T., "Kaliningrad's Place in Russia and Europe: Implications of the February 2022 Russian Escalation in Ukraine and Prospects for Future Engagement with Kaliningrad," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2023, 23 pgs.
Impact of the Loss of Russia-U.S. Arms Control Agreements (RSI EUCOM): What have the effects been?