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Russian Strategic Decision Making: Regime Stability and Domestic Control

  • Published
  • By RSI EUCOM

This topic analyzes the key factors influencing Russian society, culture, governance, and economics. How are these dynamics changing and interacting with each other? How do these factors impact stability of the Russian system, and how do they shape defense and foreign policy? Research should consider the Russian elite ecosystem, changes in major Russian conglomerates, and changes to the domestic system of control?

  • Russian Domestic Stability’s Impact on National Security (RSI EUCOM): What impact does Russia's domestic security have on its national security decision-making
  • Russian Regime Stability (RSI EUCOM): How does Putin protect the regime and manage domestic threats to stability
  • Putin’s Decision-Making Process (RSI EUCOM): How do Putin's personal history, leadership style, inner circle, and strategic calculations influence his geopolitical actions like the invasion of Ukraine
    • Gaxiola, Kaitlin S. Stark, "Russian Military Ethics: Their Impact on Russian Leadership Decision-Making and Why it Matters to the United States," SAASS thesis, 2025, 46 pgs.
      • Answers this by tracing Putin's background from a life of poverty to his KGB training, noting that his past forged him into a tenacious and unapologetic leader. She argues that Putin's strategic calculations are heavily influenced by the "siloviki"—an inner circle of former intelligence officers who control the Russian economy and state apparatus through kleptocracy. Ultimately, Gaziola assesses that Putin's decision-making is driven by an unethical desire to restore Russian imperialism, though he is also prone to making emotionally-driven, hasty calculations, such as the 2014 annexation of Crimea which was triggered by a sudden fear of losing the Sevastopol naval base.
    • Isom, Joshua M., "2022 Russian Ukrainian War: Analysis Using Three Deterrence Models," SAASS thesis, 2025, 77 pgs. 
      • Isom answers this by delving into Putin's strategic calculus leading up to the 2022 invasion using George and Smoke’s deterrence framework. Isom explains that Putin’s decision to invade was heavily influenced by his belief that the risks were low and calculable, largely because he anticipated a swift ten-day victory where Ukrainian leadership would flee. Furthermore, Putin's decision-making was shaped by his perception of a weak U.S. commitment to Ukraine, a view informed by the lack of U.S. military intervention during the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Because Putin calculated the risk as controllable and doubted U.S. resolve, he opted to confidently initiate a fait accompli attack.
  • Putin’s Future (RSI EUCOM): What will Putin’s role be after 2026
  • Russian Businessmen (RSI EUCOM): What is the influence of prominent businessmen, and how do they serve Putin's and Russia's interests
  • Russian Powerbrokers (RSI EUCOM): Who are the powerbrokers in Russia and how is power allocated?
  • Russia’s Security Council (RSI EUCOM): What role does the Security Council play, and how important are their decrees?
    • Behrens, Maj. Mikkel Nymann (RDAF), "Trouble in Niflheim? Elements of A NATO Arctic Strategy," SAASS thesis, 2015, 125 pgs. 

      • Partially answers the question by showing how the Security Council acts as a primary authority for identifying and articulating systemic threats to Russian national security. The paper quotes Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, who publicly warned that the coordinated policies of the U.S., Norway, Denmark, and Canada in the Arctic constituted a systemic threat to Russia's economic, geopolitical, and defense interests. This underscores the Council's essential role in threat assessment and strategic posturing on the world stage.

    • Davis, Col. Donald J., "Keeping America Secure: A Case for Nuclear Force Modernization," AF Fellows paper, 2014, 38 pgs.
      • Addresses the question by demonstrating the Security Council's critical role in shaping and communicating Russia's most severe military and nuclear doctrines. The paper highlights a statement by Nikolay Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, who announced that the Council had corrected the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. This shows the immense importance of the Council's decrees, as it holds the power to authorize preventative nuclear strikes to resist conventional aggression in situations deemed critical to national security.
    • Juarez, Carlos, "Russia's Nuclear Weapons Use in Modern Times," AFGC thesis, 2025. 
      • This paper addresses the role of Russia's Security Council by highlighting its supreme authority in shaping and validating the country's strategic nuclear doctrine. Specifically, the author notes that the Russian Security Council was responsible for the pivotal decision to maintain low-yield nuclear weapons and upgrade both nuclear and conventional arsenals, operating under the assumption that sub-strategic weapons could successfully defeat adversaries in minor theater conflicts. Furthermore, the paper illustrates the Council's importance in strategic messaging, deterrence, and policy interpretation. For example, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev used his position to signal that Russia's doctrine allows for expanded interpretations of nuclear posturing and use in response to Western involvement in Ukraine. Through these actions, the paper demonstrates that the Security Council plays a top-level role in adapting and declaring Russia's most critical defense and escalation strategies.
    • Timpson, Lt. Col. Shawn, "Russian Arctic Intentions," AWC SSP, 2020, 64 pgs.  
      • Answers the question by illustrating the Russian Security Council's role as a supreme policy-designing body that unifies the nation's most critical power centers. The paper details that the Council's permanent members include the president, prime minister, ministers of interior, foreign affairs, and defense, as well as the directors of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Foreign Intelligence Service. The importance of this process is highlighted by the fact that the Security Council is directly responsible for designing the fundamentals of high-level national strategies, such as Russia's Arctic policy, demonstrating its authority in steering the country's strategic and economic priorities.