- Adams AWC 2026 GPS CCP Modernization" This paper outlines how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) systematically converts bilateral trade and finance into strategic leverage to impose severe costs on regional competitors, particularly South Korea. The author highlights the 2016 geopolitical crisis wherein South Korea sought to enhance its defensive capabilities by deploying the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system. Objecting to the deployment under the premise that it would grant the U.S. heightened regional situational awareness, China retaliated with sweeping trade cancellations, tourism restrictions, and a complete ban on South Korean cultural exports like K-Pop. This retaliation ultimately cost the South Korean economy between $7 billion and $10 billion, demonstrating how China exploits "trade familiarity" to wield coercive influence over regional nations that count Beijing as their primary trading partner.
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Agnihotri, Gp. Capt. Prashant, "Shared Situational and Domain Awareness (SSDA) as an Initial Framework for Strengthening Quad," AWC, 2022.
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This paper explores how the strategic options of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—comprising India, Australia, Japan, and the U.S.—are constrained by the deep integration of their economies with China. Historically, the fear of Chinese commercial reprisal has precluded India, Japan, and Australia from giving their counterstrategy a hard military dimension or distinctiveness. However, the author notes that recent events of Chinese territorial aggression against India and Japan, combined with offensive warnings to Australia over Taiwan, have started to shift this calculus. These coercive actions are driving the Quad nations to overcome their commercial hesitations, recognize the need to incorporate hard-power options, and collaborate on Shared Situational and Domain Awareness (SSDA).
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Barnes, Maj. David J., "Weaponized Economics: A Military Evaluation of Chinese Power Projection," AFGC, 2022.
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This study evaluates China's weaponization of economics as an effective substitute for military power to project its nationalistic agenda and "capture" target nations. Through top-down initiatives like "Made in China 2025" and the "Belt and Road Initiative," China utilizes subsidies and non-market distortions to undermine foreign industries, with specific cost-imposition impacts projected for Australian sector exports. By establishing deeply embedded dependencies, the CCP positions these regional economies to be vulnerable to economic influence and potential coercion on significant policy matters. To counter this strategic threat, the paper recommends that the U.S. actively build on its military ties with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and potentially India, to construct similar, mutually reinforcing economic networks.
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Biles, Maj. Megan, "Mirror, Mirror, on the Wall: The Ends Ways & Means of Partner and Ally Integration", SAASS, 2023.
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This study demonstrates how China imposes massive economic costs on South Korea to punish it for security alignments with the United States. Following Seoul's 2017 deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, China launched a relentless campaign of economic warfare, utilizing state-sponsored consumer boycotts, restricting group tourism, and selectively enforcing regulations to shut down Chinese facilities owned by South Korean multinational enterprises (MNEs), costing the ROK economy over $20 billion in lost tourism revenue and massive hits to homeland sales. These economic ties severely limit South Korea's security choices; because China is South Korea's largest trading partner, the ROK is highly vulnerable to subsequent economic retaliation. This strategic dependency creates domestic political friction and induces strategic ambivalence in Seoul, making South Korean policymakers cautious of deeper integration with the U.S. (such as hosting U.S. theater nuclear weapons) out of fear of further economic devastation and regional escalation.
- Bragado GCPME 2025 Analyzing Strategy Efficacy to Further U.S. National Interests in the South China Sea" This study evaluates how China actively leverages economic reliance and regional trade agreements to compromise U.S. security partnerships and restrict the strategic choices of Indo-Pacific nations, including regional allies like Japan and Australia. The author argues that Beijing's deliberate expansion of economic agreements in the South China Sea creates severe dependency, which China subsequently uses as geopolitical leverage. By weaponizing this economic reliance, China can effectively persuade or pressure dependent host-nation governments to limit, stall, or terminate critical military and basing agreements with the United States. Consequently, these economic entanglements disincentivize key regional partners from fully supporting U.S. initiatives—such as freedom of navigation patrols, localized military drills, or economic sanctions—due to the high threat of Chinese retaliatory trade blockades or loss of resource access.
- Brantley GCPME 2025 India and Australia: How Do China’s Economic Efforts Impact U.S. Relations?" This paper details how China employs trade restrictions, tariffs, and targeted investments as political tools to pressure Australia and India, forcing both countries to balance their economic dependencies against security alignments with the United States. For Australia, China imposed steep tariffs and bans on major products like barley (exceeding 80%), wine (exceeding 200%), and coal, while selectively weaponizing its monopoly over critical rare earth elements and magnets. Because China serves as Australia's largest trading partner—purchasing nearly 40% of its combined exports and 60% of its iron ore—such asymmetric dependencies significantly narrow Canberra's policy flexibility. For India, Beijing utilizes less overt, gray-zone economic coercion, such as customs delays on seafood and rice, strict sanitary non-tariff barriers, and freezing capital investments from tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent. With India running a massive trade deficit exceeding $99 billion with Beijing, its deep reliance on Chinese Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), electronics, and solar modules heavily constrains its strategic de-risking options and complicates its security integration within U.S.-led frameworks like the Quad.
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Crespo, Lt. Col. Jose L., "It Takes Three to Tango: India Must Turn West," AWC, 2025.
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This paper outlines how China imposes direct costs on India's national security and economy through military border incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), extensive cyber espionage targeting critical infrastructure, and an "export denial strategy" that restricts vital industrial components. These coercive measures are exacerbated by India's deep economic ties with China, which remains India’s largest trading partner in goods, with bilateral trade surpassing $125 billion in 2022. India’s heavy reliance on Chinese imports for essential raw materials—particularly in electronics, machinery, and chemicals—fuels a massive trade deficit and creates severe supply chain vulnerabilities in critical sectors like pharmaceuticals. Consequently, these economic entanglements limit India’s strategic choices; aligning fully with the U.S. during a great power conflict carries the risk of severe Chinese economic retaliation and export cutoffs, forcing Indian leaders to balance strategic autonomy against the threat of losing critical industrial access.
- Ellis, Maj. Lauren, "The Tiger and the Dragon: India's Role in Sinking China's Invasion of Taiwan," ACSC paper (PACAF RTF), 2024, 38 pgs.
- Answers this question specifically from the Indian perspective, detailing how China imposes heavy military and economic costs on India while leveraging bilateral trade to severely constrain New Delhi's strategic options. China imposes direct physical and financial costs through militarized tensions and fatal clashes along their poorly demarcated 2,167-mile border—the longest contested boundary in the world—which has forced India to divert significant state resources toward constructing rapid-deployment high-altitude infrastructure like the eight-mile Zojila highway tunnel. Economically, because China remains one of India's major trading partners, India’s strategic choices are constrained by a "paralysis by fear" that openly partnering with a U.S.-led coalition could provide Beijing with a pretext to resume hostilities along their shared border. Furthermore, while India is actively seeking to expand its defense-industrial capacity through strategic technology-sharing partnerships with the U.S.—collaborating on joint productions of jet engines, armored vehicles, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors—its ability to absorb this industrial expansion is severely limited by complex domestic regulations, insufficient infrastructure, and a fraught tax system. These internal bottlenecks, combined with New Delhi's protective approach to strategic autonomy, often cause India to act as a fickle economic partner prone to walking away from multilateral trade negotiations
- Enslen, Col. Dan, "The US and Australian Relationship: A Response to Expanding Chinese Influence in the Western Pacific," AWC RSS paper, 2023, 11 pgs.
- This paper details how China strategically imposes costs on Australia through trade restrictions and diplomatic grey-zone attacks to punish Canberra for opposing Chinese actions and seeking COVID-19 origin investigations. In retaliation, Beijing suspended Australian meat imports, placed an 80.5% tariff on barley, initiated a petroleum embargo, and blocked imports of wine, coal, timber, and seafood. Because China is Australia's number-one trading partner—importing more than the next four countries combined—this heavy trade reliance leaves Australia highly vulnerable to coercive measures. These economic ties limit Australia’s freedom of action by catching senior leaders in Canberra between their value-based alignment with international norms and vital economic partnerships, as businesses and local governments fear that working too closely with the United States will trigger devastating economic punishment.
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Giroux, Maj. Jason, "Asian Middle Powers: Implications for US Military Planning," ACSC EL, 2021.
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This analysis explores how transnational economic interdependence with China limits the strategic and military choices of Asian middle powers, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India. Because these regional powers are deeply integrated into China's economic sphere, they rely heavily on transactional agreements and diplomacy to sustain their domestic growth. This economic reliance forces these nations to hedge their strategic relationships, creating a strong reluctance to offer automatic military support to the U.S. in a dispute with Beijing. Consequently, U.S. military planning cannot assume consistent coalition support or immediate access to basing, logistics, and intelligence sharing in the Pacific. The paper concludes that middle powers may even work to form their own autonomous bloc to advance regional interests rather than risk the immense economic costs of a showdown with China.
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Gracia, Maj. Jimmy S., "From WWII Relics to Modern Strongholds--Revamping Indo-Pacific Defenses," AFGC, 2025.
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This paper examines how China exploits asymmetric trade dependencies to push Japan and Australia toward strategic neutrality, complicating U.S. basing strategies. China imposes costs on Japan by leveraging a massive trade imbalance—Japan’s trade with China totals $300 billion annually, with an excess dependency of $47 billion on imported Chinese goods. This economic leverage limits Tokyo’s security choices, as Japanese leaders must constantly balance security cooperation with the U.S. against immediate economic risks, making them cautious about expanding land-use agreements for U.S. forces. Similarly, Australia’s deep economic ties with China—totaling $209 billion in trade in 2023—create a strategic balancing act where Canberra is wary that an expanded U.S. military footprint (such as MRF-D rotations in Darwin) could invite Chinese economic sanctions, thereby fueling domestic political opposition and straining its commitment to the U.S. alliance.
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Hasson, Lt. Col. Kathleen, "The Chinese Communist Party's Insidious Infiltration," AWC, 2021.
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This paper details how China exploits Australia’s intense economic dependency to impose geopolitical costs when its political interests are challenged. As Australia’s largest trade partner, China purchases one-third of all Australian exports (primarily iron ore and coal), while Chinese tourists and students generate billions in local revenue. When Australia discovered Chinese domestic interference, banned Huawei and ZTE from its 5G network, and demanded an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19, Beijing retaliated with aggressive economic coercion. The Chinese Communist Party progressively escalated punitive trade measures by placing severe restrictions and massive tariffs on Australian barley, wine, timber, cotton, coal, and beef. This economic leverage highlights how deeply intertwined trade portfolios allow China to punish sovereign policy decisions, effectively limiting Australia's strategic and political choices.
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Khan GCPME 2025 Alternatives to Combating China in the Pacific: Leverage in Asia" This research positions India as the premier regional counterweight to balance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while highlighting how structural economic ties to Beijing limit New Delhi's operational autonomy. Although India represents a fast-growing economic powerhouse, its defense and technology sectors remain structurally tethered to China for crucial precursor materials, consumer electronics, and pharmaceutical ingredients. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, the author recommends that the United States actively pursue robust, comprehensive bilateral trade agreements, technology-sharing initiatives, and joint cybersecurity programs with India. Strengthening India's domestic industrial capacity and technological infrastructure is presented as an essential prerequisite for enabling New Delhi to confidently resist Chinese gray-zone economic coercion and act as a reliable partner in regional integrated deterrence.
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Martinez, Col. Eloy, "Australia's Balancing Act: Navigating China's Influence in the Indo-Pacific Region," Regional Studies paper, AWC, 2024, 7 pgs.
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Subsequently published in Wild Blue Yonder (June 27, 2024).
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This essay focuses on Australia’s strategic balancing act, illustrating how China uses aggressive trade sanctions and tariffs on wine, beef, and barley to punish Canberra for aligning with U.S. security initiatives. This economic volatility demonstrates how Australia's overreliance on China as its leading trade partner leaves its national security vulnerable to Beijing's coercion. To overcome these limitations, the paper recommends that Australia align itself with the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Europe to develop its own lithium refining and battery production capabilities. Failing to build this economic-military nexus and establish market diversification risks leaving Australia increasingly entangled in the U.S.-China rivalry with severely constrained strategic and economic choices in the event of regional conflict.
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Pohare, Wng. Comm. Shivkumar N. (Indian Air Force), "Enhancing India's Defense Cooperation with QUAD Countries by Leveraging the Geographical Potential of Andaman and Nicobar Islands," SAASS, 2023.
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This study discusses how China imposes costs and security externalities on India and other Quad partners through military border skirmishes and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which places dual-use ports in neighboring Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh to encircle India. At the same time, the deep economic interdependence of all Quad members (Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.) on the Chinese market limits their willingness to put forward a strong counter against Beijing. India faces a massive $71 billion trade deficit with China, while the U.S., Japan, and Australia maintain trade flows with China totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. This mutual economic dependence limits these nations’ strategic choices, as they fear that pushing too hard against Chinese expansionism will trigger severe economic disruptions, damage domestic growth, and lead to political backlash.
- Rieske, Nathan E., "Influencing India--The U.S. Battle for Strategic Partnership," AFGC thesis, 2025.
- This study examines how India's strategic choices are constrained by its deep economic ties with China, which serves as a major trade partner but also a predominant security threat. Although India’s democratic values align with the U.S., it maintains a policy of "strategic autonomy" to hedge between both powers and manage regional risks. India is economically dependent on Chinese imports, sustaining a massive, persistent trade deficit with Beijing that reached $94.22 billion in 2024. Consequently, if India were to enter a formal military alliance with the United States, it would likely provoke catastrophic economic retaliation from China. This threat of trade disruption severely restricts New Delhi's willingness to integrate into Western security frameworks, forcing India to prioritize diplomatic maneuvering and supply diversification over direct military alignment.
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Rimbach, Charles, "Availability of Critical Minerals Sourced from PRC and Concern about Supply Chains," AWC, 2022.
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This paper illustrates how China weaponizes its near-monopoly on rare earth elements (REE) to impose high industrial costs on Japan and enforce favorable diplomatic outcomes. In September 2010, after the Japanese Coast Guard arrested a Chinese fishing captain accused of trawling in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone near the Senkaku Islands, Beijing retaliated by completely halting all REE shipments to Japan. This sudden embargo threatened Japan’s high-tech manufacturing sector, exposing how easily China can hold its neighbors' critical industrial supply chains hostage. This event served as a stark warning to Japan and other dependent nations that relying on Chinese raw materials directly limits their sovereignty. It proves that China is highly willing to use resource leverage to unilaterally punish its neighbors' legal and security decisions.
- Skaggs, Lt. Col. Ryan D., "Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Information Warfare: Ideology, Influence and Coercion in the Indo-Pacific," SAASS, 2022.
- This paper details how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) systematically deploys geoeconomics—using economic rewards and punishments—to coerce nations into adopting its preferred policies. The author highlights the 2017 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) dispute as a prime example, where Beijing exploited South Korea's high trade reliance on China to impose devastating economic punishments, including unwritten tourist bans, custom clearance delays, and the forced closure of the Lotte Mart conglomerate. Under intense economic pressure, the South Korean government eventually caved to Beijing's demands by issuing the "three noes" statement, promising not to deploy additional THAAD systems or join U.S.-led regional missile defense networks . The paper notes that other traditional allies, including Australia, must constantly navigate this complex and stressful tension between their security alignments and their core economic relationships with China.
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Unruh, Maj. Michael Y., "21st Century Coercion: Growing Deterrence Doctrine, Policy and Strategy into the 2020s and Beyond," AFGC, 2020.
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This paper focuses on China's willingness to use aggressive economic pressure to force compliance from neighboring states and roll back defense postures that challenge its military reach. A prime example of this occurred in 2017 when the U.S. and South Korea operationalized the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system on the Korean Peninsula. To challenge this deployment, China mounted intense and coordinated economic retaliation against South Korea, eventually coercing Seoul into an agreement that prohibited further THAAD batteries on the peninsula. This case demonstrates that South Korea's high degree of economic interdependence with China leaves it highly vulnerable to severe economic penalties. Ultimately, Beijing's ability to weaponize trade access directly limits South Korea's sovereign defense choices and complicates joint U.S.-allied security initiatives.
- Wallis, Alex M., "Challenging Command Seeking Control: Evaluating the USAF's Current C2 System Assumptions and Posture in the South China Sea," AFGC, 2021.
- This paper discusses how China exerts regional influence and imposes economic costs by manipulating trade architecture and maritime control. Specifically, the Chinese Communist Party has used the forced renegotiation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to implement stifling tariffs, which have caused the prices of goods to skyrocket across the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, China utilizes its artificial islands in the South China Sea as military staging points to apprehend commercial vessels believed to be violating these new trade terms. This has led Australia and Japan to condemn China's actions as a "deal of dependence" and a "betrayal of trust," prompting both nations to call on the U.S. to help break the economic impasse.
- Youngquist, Lt. Col. Benjamin D., "Relooking at America's Treaty and Alliance Structure in the Indo-Pacific," AWC, 2021.
- This paper outlines how the sheer volume of China's trade with key Indo-Pacific powers serves as a powerful coercive tool that limits their strategic freedom. The author provides trade data showing that the PRC is the top exporter to India (16.3% of imports), Japan (24.5%), and Australia (22.9%), and serves as the single largest market for Australian exports (33.5%) and a vital secondary market for Japanese exports. These extensive economic ties create a situation where regional nations frequently prioritize day-to-day economic benefits over long-term security concerns. Consequently, apprehensions of Chinese commercial reprisal make current and potential U.S. allies highly reluctant to align directly with Washington in open hostility, hindering the coordination of collective defense structures.