Nuclear War: A Scenario

 Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen. Dutton, 2024, 400 pp.

Annie Jacobsen is a highly regarded investigative journalist and bestselling author known for her work on national security, intelligence, and military secrecy. A Pulitzer Prize finalist, she has written extensively on subjects ranging from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and its programs to the Central Intelligence Agency’s covert programs. Her hallmark is making complex—often classified—defense issues accessible to the public without sacrificing nuance or depth. With Nuclear War: A Scenario, Jacobsen turns her focus to perhaps the gravest national security threat of all: nuclear war.

The book arrives at a time of mounting global instability. The international strategic environment has drastically deteriorated with the collapse of arms control frameworks such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the unraveling of the nuclear arms reduction treaty, New START. Simultaneously, China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, North Korea continues frequent missile testing, and Russia has escalated its nuclear rhetoric amid its war in Ukraine.¹ Meanwhile, public and political attention in the United States has shifted away from nuclear issues, as most civilians, lawmakers, and even defense officials lack firsthand experience from the Cold War era. In this atrophy of experience, Jacobsen’s book aims to reintroduce the risks of nuclear war to both public audiences and strategic policymakers.

This review evaluates Nuclear War: A Scenario as a compelling work of narrative nonfiction and a contribution to nuclear policy discourse. It evaluates the book’s effectiveness in conveying the stakes of nuclear war, examines the accuracy of its claims, and highlights areas where it may oversimplify complex issues for the sake of storytelling. From a national security perspective, it also explores whether Jacobsen’s scenario aligns with strategic realities and how it might inform future conversations on deterrence, escalation, and arms control with current and future policymakers.

At the core of Jacobsen’s Nuclear War lies a chilling yet disturbingly plausible premise: a sudden North Korean nuclear strike on Washington, DC, sets off a cascading global crisis. The book explores a single urgent question: What would actually happen in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear detonation on American soil?

Jacobsen grounds her narrative in the launch of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that obliterates the US capital and decapitates the executive branch. What unfolds is a meticulously reconstructed, real-time portrayal of how America’s nuclear command-and-control system would react, how presidential authority would be transferred, and how such an attack could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe.

Though fictional, the scenario is rooted in real-world systems, nuclear doctrine, and historical precedent. North Korea is not selected for dramatic effect, but because it is a credible nuclear state with demonstrated ICBM capabilities and a record of erratic behavior. Jacobsen also draws on expert insight, including interviews with Dr. Glen McDuff of Los Alamos National Laboratory. His descriptions of nuclear weapons effects are informed by the gold-standard reference work, S. Glasstone and P. J. Dolan’s The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (DOD, 1977).

Structurally, the book is organized as a minute-by-minute account of the first hour of nuclear war. Jacobsen moves fluidly between different locations and layers of authority, the Pentagon, US Strategic Command, radar installations, the White House, and civilian infrastructure, capturing the cascading breakdown of information, communications, and control. This structure mirrors the speed and disorientation of an actual nuclear crisis, where decisions must be made in minutes, and verification, command authority, and global stability hang in the balance. It also underscores the psychological and emotional strain both military personnel and civilians would bear. Jacobsen’s detailed temporal framing not only heightens the tension but also shows how quickly deterrence and strategic planning can unravel under catastrophic conditions.

What distinguishes Nuclear War from speculative fiction is its foundation in real-world sources. Jacobsen draws extensively from declassified US government documents, including nuclear war plans, continuity of operations protocols, and records of incidents such as the 1983 NATO Able Archer exercise and the 1995 Norwegian rocket scare, both of which nearly triggered nuclear responses. She incorporates doctrine, such as launch authorization procedures and strategic force structure manuals, and supplements this with over 40 interviews with former nuclear launch officers, secretaries of defense, military strategists, nuclear weapons physicists, and emergency planners. This combination of open-source research and firsthand testimony lends the book both factual integrity and a sense of immediacy that elevates it above dramatization alone.

Despite its strengths, the book has notable limitations. Chief among them is its speculative framing. The scenario Jacobsen presents is a worst-case trajectory with little room for de-escalation, diplomatic intervention, or the fail-safes within real-world nuclear policy. While the scenario is grounded in legitimate concerns, its determinism risks reinforcing a narrative of inevitability rather than a preventable catastrophe. In doing so, it may obscure the tools that states have developed to manage escalation, such as back-channel communication, crisis signaling, and regional deconfliction.

Additionally, the book simplifies institutional complexity. Though Jacobsen references key components like US Strategic Command and the National Military Command Center, she largely omits the layers of interagency coordination, legal safeguards, and Allied engagement that shape real nuclear decision-making. Extended deterrence strategies involving Japan, South Korea, and NATO are barely addressed, even though they are central to the contemporary deterrence environment. The portrayal of nuclear authority as a linear and fast-moving chain from launch detection to retaliation glosses over the procedural and bureaucratic realities that, while imperfect, are designed to prevent rash or mistaken decisions.

One area where the book could offer more is in its policy depth. While it powerfully conveys the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war, it stops short of providing concrete policy recommendations or engaging deeply with current arms control initiatives and strategic modernization debates. Expanding its discussion to include topics such as nuclear posture reviews, missile defense, or doctrines like “no first use” would strengthen its utility—particularly for policymakers seeking actionable insights. Nevertheless, the book succeeds in raising vital awareness and could serve as a compelling starting point for broader policy discussions.

Ultimately, Nuclear War is a compelling and urgent contribution to public discourse on nuclear weapons. Its vivid narrative and factual grounding make it a valuable tool for raising awareness, especially among those unfamiliar with the realities of nuclear policy. Yet, it is best read as a dramatic prompt for deeper inquiry rather than a standalone policy analysis. Jacobsen’s work should be paired with more rigorous strategic literature to understand the complete challenges of nuclear deterrence and crisis management. As nuclear risks grow more acute in the twenty-first century, works like hers perform a vital civic function, reminding us of what is possible and what must be prevented.

Nuclear War is a powerful and thought-provoking work that makes one of the most complex and consequential issues of our time—nuclear war—accessible, urgent, and real. Jacobsen delivers a compelling narrative grounded in factual research and expert testimony, offering readers a rare, human-centered view into the terrifying speed and fragility of nuclear decision-making. While the book is not intended as a policy manual, it excels as a catalyst for public awareness and conversation, reminding us that nuclear risk is not a relic of the Cold War but a present and evolving challenge. In this regard, Jacobsen’s contribution is not only timely but essential. It encourages renewed dialogue, deeper inquiry, and a more informed citizenry—an outcome that is, in itself, a meaningful step toward preventing the very scenario the book so vividly describes.

James M. Ragland, USAF, Retired