The Russia-Ukraine war has been called the “first drone war,” the “first commercial space war,” and the “first full-scale cyber war.” The Russia-Ukraine war, however, defies simple generalizations. Characterized by trench warfare, nearly static front lines, and tank battles where precision artillery duels stymie operational maneuver, the war has also featured rapidly evolving electromagnetic combat, the prominent use of drones, including sea control without manned warships, and the indispensability of space-based capabilities. It is one part World War I, one part World War II, and one part World War III.
The Russia-Ukraine war is in some ways reminiscent of World War I. That war has been called the “first modern war.” It was the first war fought on the land, air, and sea and it launched the widespread use of many now commonplace military technologies, including aircraft, submarines, and tanks. Although airpower, undersea warfare, and armored maneuver would get their start in World War I, their use would be developed to an even greater degree some two decades later in World War II.
Similarly, the Russia-Ukraine war may be a harbinger of wars to come that sits at the intersection of geopolitics, technology, and tactics. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine occurs at a time of increasing concern in the United States over the rise of China and the potential for war between the two countries over primacy in the Western Pacific. The United States has identified the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the pacing challenge and China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), continues to modernize its capabilities across all domains with the goal of becoming a “world-class” military by mid-century. As part of its modernization process, the PLA has been given the goal of developing the capabilities and being ready to successfully invade Taiwan while deterring or defeating U.S. intervention by 2027.
This paper identifies 10 takeaways from the Russia-Ukraine war and applies their implications to a potential conflict between the United States and the PRC over Taiwan. These 10 issue areas include strategic issues such as the effects of national will, demographics, protraction, and international support on the ability of a country to sustain the fight and the role of nuclear weapons. They also focus on operational warfighting issues such as logistics, uncrewed systems, space systems, air power, and cyber warfare on the course and conduct of future warfare.
Click here for the full article