Thoughts from the Chairman.......
Although China and Russia certainly have overlapping geostrategic interests, and have proclaimed that they have a friendship without limits, these are not the same countries, and these are not the same political systems. Each leader has his own unique style and each has been heavily influenced by their personal background and history. The consequence of which is that though both have been in power for over a decade both are strong leaders of powerful countries but there are certain differences which we need to understand as we look toward the future.
Vladimir Putin came to power more than 20 years ago, and throughout that time he has used his political inclinations, his ties to the security service, and the influence he wields over his party, to build a personalistic system that supports him and his desires. However, the ways in which he's gone about this mean that, in no small part, people tell him “yes” because if they don't they fall out of locked windows or mysteriously find grenades on their private planes. If Vladimir Putin choked on a bowl of borscht tonight, the Russian system would see a major shift. Although this won't be a 180° turn, the competing forces within the Russian system would demand significant changes in their military, in their economy, and in their society. We cannot say for sure who or what faction would gain the upper hand, or in what direction they would take Russia, but it would not be the same trajectory that Russia is currently on.
Xi Jinping has learned through his life growing up through the Great Cultural Revolution, rising to power through the Communist Party system, and being deeply devoted to the Marxist-Leninist communist system that has produced him, the power of the cognitive domain. He understands the power of information, and the importance of controlling the narrative. Xi Jinping has leveraged this and built a cadre of leaders around him who certainly tell him “yes” because they owe him loyalty, and perhaps face him with some trepidation; however, the vast majority of the leadership around Xi Jinping tell him yes not only because they're afraid of him, but also because they share that same world vision. If Xi Jinping were to choke on a dumpling tonight, there would be instability in the system and jockeying for power behind the scenes; but in all likelihood the victor, or victorious faction, would still be steering the ship of state largely along the same paths as Xi. The leaders in power in the Party, in the Party's military, in the state-owned enterprises, and across the Chinese power system, largely believe in the vision that Xi Jinping has laid out. There would likely be loosening of economic restrictions, and potentially minor changes in Chinese social organization, but by and large China’s geo-strategic goals and strategies will remain the same.
The “Thoughts from the Chairman” series are not necessarily factual, but meant to be thought provoking, providing one possible viewpoint or idea, from that of a Chinese leader. To reiterate, this article is nothing more than informed musings. It is intended to provoke thought and discussion. Nothing more. Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air University, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited.