Russia in Syria

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad (second from left), Russian president Vladimir Putin (center), Russian minister of defense Sergei Shoigu (second from right), and chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation armed forces Valery Gerasimov (right) meet 21 November 2017 in Sochi, Russia, to discuss Russian support for operations in Syria. (photo courtesy of the Office of the President of Russia)

Russian Views on Deterrence, Escalation Management & Conflict Termination

Published April 17, 2026
By EUCOM - Russia Strategic Initiative

TOPIC SPONSOR: EUCOM - Russia Strategic Initiative

What are the Russian views and theories of deterrence, escalation management, and conflict termination?

Bowron, James, "Russian Battlefield Losses: Why Russia Will Rely on Nuclear Threats When Dealing with the West in the Future," Russia RTF, 2023, 35 pgs.
Juarez, Maj. Carlos, "Russia's Nuclear Weapon Use in Modern Times," AFGC thesis, 2025, 44 pgs.
- Juarez directly answers this by examining Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" (or "escalate to terminate") strategy. He explains that if a high-intensity crisis is turning decisively against Russia, its doctrine supports intentionally escalating the conflict—potentially through a demonstrative or tactical nuclear strike—to rapidly compel the adversary to stop fighting on terms favorable to Moscow. He notes that this is widely recognized by experts as a deceptive political action meant to manipulate enemy perception, leveraging the fear of full-scale nuclear war to force an opponent's withdrawal.
Perry, Major Frank, "Rose Colored Glasses: How Western Mirroring Could Result in Inadvertent Nuclear War with Russia," ACSC Russia RTF, 2022, 18 pgs.
Sahl, LTC Joe, "Undeterred: Analyzing the Persistent Russian Threat to NATO and Future Implications for NATO and the United States," Regional Studies paper, AWC, 2024, 7 pgs.
Szczepanski, John T., "Kaliningrad's Place in Russia and Europe: Implications of the February 2022 Russian Escalation in Ukraine and Prospects for Future Engagement with Kaliningrad," AWC Strategic Studies Paper, 2023, 23 pgs.