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  Jan 15, 2021

  The Influence of Arms: Explaining the Durability of India–Russia Alignment

  This article offers a set of historic, political, ideational, and material factors driving the India–Russia relationship forward that require scrutiny. In short, the authors find that while the residue of Cold War collaboration, contemporary geopolitical alignments, and ideological convergence on a polycentric global order all contribute, the material arms relationship provides the strongest and most durable driver of the relationship.
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  Jan 15, 2021

  Russia–Pakistan Strategic Relations: An Emerging Entente Cordiale

  Extrapolating from recent media reports, articles, and general discussion in the strategic community in Pakistan, this article examines the trends in this new relationship and assesses possible influence Russia might have in shaping future Pakistani security policy and nuclear doctrines.
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  Jan 5, 2021

  Comparing Space Agency Intervention in Taiwan and South Korea

  To develop their space sectors, Taiwan’s and South Korea’s space agencies intervene differently. This is despite the developmental state literature indicating that the agencies’ ideologies, mechanisms, and preferences will be similar. This article recounts the literature’s expectations about the two agencies. It then reviews what the two agencies are actually doing to develop their space sectors. This article ends by discussing the implications of the two agencies’ differences for stakeholders in Taiwan’s and South Korea’s space sectors and identifying questions to guide future research that builds off this article’s findings.
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  Dec 29, 2020

  Competing with China Today

  As the national security apparatus continues to shift toward great-power competition, there is still a significant lack of understanding about the nature of the current competition and how the armed forces can engage within the strategic reality. This article outlines the road to competition with China, as well as the nature of the struggle, to provide clarity on the challenge such competition poses. Within that context, this article provides recommendations for how the military can translate the strategic concepts found within the National Defense Strategy into more tangible actions.
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  Dec 2, 2020

  North Korea: Nuclear Threat or Security Problem?

  The negotiation process on North Korean nuclearization is stalemated and no change seems likely anytime soon. This stalemate demonstrates the failure of the US policy, a very dangerous situation particularly in view of the absence of any viable American strategic approach to the issue, the ensuing divisions among allies, and lack of a coherent approach to North Korea. Continuing the policy of strategic patience, which would be Washington’s default position if no further progress occurs, is doomed to fail. Therefore, the United States must simultaneously enhance alliance cohesion while pursuing a credible negotiating proposal. This article lays out the reasons why that stance is needed now and is becoming more urgent. Such strategic approach can lead to better negotiated outcomes that would not only bring about denuclearization and North Korean security but also promote a new, more stable, equilibrium in Northeast Asia.
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  Nov 24, 2020

  戰略競爭?—Strategic Competition?

  This article lays the groundwork for further analysis by providing an overview of what strategic competition is. After defining strategic competition, the second section takes a brief diversion to discuss the relationship between—and potential for—cooperation and competition. The third and fourth sections consider how competition is viewed from the US and Chinese perspectives, before drawing conclusions in the final section about the current and future nature of the US-China relationship.
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  Nov 24, 2020

  India and the Quadrilateral Forum as a Means of US Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

  In the Indo-Pacific, China is waging a well-orchestrated campaign to displace US hegemony and secure a favorable balance of power. Driven by ardent nationalistic goals, the Chinese Communist Party is silencing political outliers and challenging the boundaries of international sovereignty. The first half of this article outlines Chinese political ambitions and domestic civil rights violations levied in pursuit of the government’s agenda. It then addresses how Chinese territorialism in the South China Sea has undermined the utility of bilateral US strategic partnerships. The second half of the article describes the threat China poses to India’s national security and why the Indian Air Force is particularly unprepared to meet this challenge. The article concludes by suggesting a quadrilateral treaty alliance between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia is needed to prevent further Chinese adventurism and preserve regional stability.
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  Nov 24, 2020

  Risks and Benefits of Autonomous Weapon Systems: Perceptions among Future Australian Defence Force Officers

  The prospect of increasingly autonomous systems has seized the military imagination and rapidly generated an international debate surrounding the merits of a potential preemptive ban under international law. What has been missing to this point has been an in-depth consideration of how artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and unmanned platforms would be perceived by the junior officers who will play a core role in their integration into future militaries. Drawing on a broad survey of officer cadets and midshipmen at the Australian Defence Force Academy conducted in 2019, this article provides an analysis of how perceived risks and benefits of autonomous weapon systems are influencing the willingness of these future defense leaders to deploy alongside them.
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  Nov 24, 2020

  Lassoing the Haboob: Countering Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin in Mali, Part I

  To develop solutions to Mali’s terrorist crisis, it is first vital to understand its history and explain how a country that was once held up as an exemplar of democratic success in Africa could collapse with such rapidity. Additionally, the same factors that led to Mali’s current disaster precipitated the creation of the extremist group Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). Therefore, it is similarly important to characterize and understand the group’s history, organization, methods, and narrative. Only once armed with that understanding can one begin to develop possible strategies for countering JNIM and ameliorating Mali’s troubled situation.

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  Jan 26, 2021

  Warning: There Are Two Other Chinese Epidemics—Finance and Technology

  There are signs of systemic weakness and rising risk to the global community as China expands its market share and competes globally in the finance and information communications technology (ICT) sectors. There is the specter of an immediate pandemic in global finance and an emergent pandemic in ICTs. These pandemics may even coincide. However, both directly point back to China, as did the coronavirus pandemic. The symptoms of these two diseases are not overtly apparent. Based on reporting from Chinese sources, China appears to be at best “healthy” and at worst “asymptomatic.”
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  Nov 24, 2020

  Indonesia: Lessons for the US–China Geo-economic Competition

  The United States reasserted itself as a viable Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) alternative with the creation of the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in October 2018 and announcement to double the US government’s Indonesian investment portfolio by 2024. To offset the BRI’s financial advantages, the US launched initiatives to coordinate its infrastructure financing decisions with Japan and Australia and to create the Blue Dot Network to promote adherence to international norms in infrastructure development. However, to compete with the BRI most effectively, Washington will need to continue rebranding FOIP to emphasize its responsiveness in helping Indonesia meet its economic goals. Over the long term, the United States will also need to accelerate industrial policies that close the technology gap with China in 5G, a key infrastructure area where Jakarta remains uncommitted.
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  Nov 24, 2020

  Sticks and Stones: Nuclear Deterrence and Conventional Conflict

  This article examines the background of the disputed Sino–Indian border, then explores the connection between conventional and nuclear conflict in the context of this case. It then considers why the conventional-nuclear escalation ladder is becoming more—not less—critical as we move farther away from the Cold War. Finally, the article considers the implications for other nuclear-armed states.
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  Nov 24, 2020

  Penetrating Artificial Intelligence–enhanced Antiaccess/Area Denial: A Challenge for Tomorrow’s Pacific Air Forces

  To ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific, the United States Air Force (USAF) must maintain its ability to freely operate in international airspace and project force forward to deter aggression. Future improvements to antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) systems will certainly include artificial intelligence (AI). AI is a strategic priority of our adversaries, as it can provide significant benefits for national defense. The USAF must be prepared to tackle these technical challenges to uphold our regional commitments and protect international interests in the Indo-Pacific. Three specific applications relevant to A2/AD are (1) target recognition from multiple fused data sources, (2) improved war gaming with agent-based models, and (3) blockchain-enabled autonomous systems. This article will introduce how these technologies might be integrated into future A2/AD systems and recommend some strategies for addressing and overcoming these challenges.
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  Aug 31, 2020

  Untapped Potential between India and Japan in the Indo-Pacific: Pursuing International Military Education

  This article argues that there is a need for dialogue regarding the development of more profound international military education programs, particularly cadet-level trainings and exchanges, and also a need for the implementation of potential collaborative exchanges, programs/courses, scholarships, and conferences between Indian and Japanese cadets.
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  Aug 31, 2020

  Building the Next Generation of Chinese Military Leaders

  How does the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) People’s Liberation Army (PLA) treat senior military leadership development? This article answers this question by looking at what the PLA views as a good leader, how it develops such leaders, and when the new generation of PLA leaders will emerge.
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  Aug 31, 2020

  Fresh Whole Blood for the Near-Peer and Immature Theater Conflict: Closing a Critical Gap

  The concept of operations for blood supply to US forces is urgently needed in the event of a transition to hostilities in Korea. This article provides a framework to enable readily available fresh whole blood to bridge the critical time gap between the first shot being fired and plausible execution of current medical supply plans that rely on functional air and sea supply chains.
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  Aug 31, 2020

  India’s Deterrence Goldilocks Dilemma in South Asia

  This article presents the unique Goldilocks dilemma that balancing China and Pakistan presents to India and examines how closer Indo–American collaboration is the best path to prevent rapid instability and possible nuclear war in the region. The article examines why a closer future US–Indian partnership is needed to finesse India out of its Goldilocks dilemma.
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  Jun 8, 2020

  China’s Rising Missile and Naval Capabilities in the Indo-Pacific Region: Security Implications for India and Its Allies

  China’s military rise is a stepping stone toward China’s dream for global power, which inevitably poses a security threat to nations in the Indo-Pacific region. This study uses the theoretical base of structural realism’s component of “offensive realism and defensive realism.” China’s doctrine of “offshore waters defense” with “open seas protection” enhances its comprehensive defense, counterattack, and deterrence capabilities near its territory and overseas maritime domain. However, China’s naval modernization, establishing overseas naval base, and militarization of ports represents security threats to countries in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s military deployments in the South China Sea (SCS) and its missile capabilities pose security threats to India’s mainland and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region.
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  Jun 8, 2020

  Kashmir: Beyond Imbroglios

  This article argues that the right to self-determination, which is an integral part of any international covenant, including but not restricted to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR); the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR); and most importantly United Nations Declaration on Human Rights (UNDHR), should be upheld and the conditions of Kashmiris ought to be bettered as a fundamental human right.
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  May 1, 2020

  Chinese Communist Party Information Warfare: US–China Competition during the COVID-19 Pandemic

  Geopolitics does not stop during a pandemic. In fact, competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China has accelerated. The Chinese Communist Party is waging an aggressive information warfare campaign to obfuscate its role in propagating the COVID-19 pandemic and to portray its response as a triumph of its authoritarian model of governance. This article will articulate how Beijing is carrying out its information warfare strategy and provide recommendations for how the United States can respond.

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  Jan 15, 2021

  The Assurance Imperative: Forward Presence in the Indo-Pacific

  As Beijing continues to assert itself through malign operations, activities, and investments in the economic, political, and military realms to undermine the international rules-based order—ironically the very rules-based order that has enabled China’s rise and which has rescued tens of millions from tyranny and lifted billions out of poverty—the United States must retain a robust, interoperable, and forward-present force that assures America’s vast array of allies and partners and deters China from undermining the free and open Indo-Pacific.
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  Jan 15, 2021

  Expanding Cooperative Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance with Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

  Current ally and partner capabilities are especially appropriate within the umbrella of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms and processes. While ISR is integral to war fighting, it is also the capability that is absolutely critical during competition as well as Phase 0 and Phase I shaping and deterring operations. While America needs strong ally and partner war-fighting capability, the ISR realm allows for close work in areas that prevent and predict conflict or provocation.
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  Mar 13, 2020

  Demystifying the Indo-Pacific Theater

  The Indo-Pacific Theater by-and-large, is a mystery to many. The focus of our nation and our Department of Defense (DOD) has long been oriented toward Europe, and more recently the Middle East, so that few Americans understand and appreciate the significance of the Indo-Pacific.
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  Aug 16, 2019

  Australia in an Age of Strategic Competition

  Senator Linda Reynolds is the Australian Minister of Defence. This senior-leader perspective is derived from her 13 June 2019 speech at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s International Conference: War in 2025. For a full version of the speech, please visit the Australian Department of Defence website: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/.

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  Jan 21, 2021

  How the Biden Administration Should Counter China in Southeast Asia

  For years, Southeast Asia has become more reliant on China, striking a Faustian bargain, wherein they accept Chinese investments in return for acquiescence to Chinese hegemony and a commitment not to criticize its central government. In 2021, the Biden administration must take bold diplomatic, messaging, military, and economic actions to curtail Chinese influence and coercion in the region. Many of these actions can begin immediately and will benefit both Southeast Asia and the United States for years to come. Failure to solidify the US role in Southeast Asia will result in China becoming inextricably entrenched in the region and embolden Beijing to take even more aggressive actions against American allies and interests.
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  Jan 15, 2021

  Russian Influence on India’s Military Doctrines

  This article details the various ways in which India has been influenced either directly or indirectly by Soviet or Russian doctrine. Directly, the most obvious influence is the sheer number and importance of the mainline military platforms each Indian service uses from Russia.
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  Jan 5, 2021

  Reimagining the Macro Arctic Region: Rebuilding Global Trust through Democratic Peace and International Law as a Foundation for an Alliance to Coerce China from Taiwan

  The United States should adopt a strategy of a shared governance based on international law in the Macro Arctic Region (MAR) (future combined areas of the Arctic and Indo-Pacific regions) as a foundation to employ a targeted coercive strategy to influence Beijing to abandon China’s expansionist goals in Taiwan. This article first frames how the United States can rebuild global trust. After providing reasons why Washington needs to rebuild trust, particularly in the MAR, the concepts of international law and shared governance are applied to show how the United States should lead the consensus decision making with key MAR players. Next, the article extends the previous arguments for a strategically stronger alliance in the MAR. An Indo-Pacific Alliance is needed to influence expansionist countries and to employ a progressive coercive strategy aimed to control China’s expansion into Taiwan.
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  Dec 29, 2020

  Strategic Surprise from the Bike Trail: The Republic of Korea and the Bicycle

  This article examines how a network of recreational bike trails can become a tool to generate strategic surprise. The Republic of Korea, by the simple act of building recreational trails and tangibly rewarding citizens who use them, has begun to ready generations of robust, skilled defenders, a uniquely surprising strategy of defense and a transport system nigh invulnerable to interdiction.
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  Dec 11, 2020

  The Day after the Battle

  This article focuses not on the how we arrive at armed conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, nor how the battle is fought, but rather seeks to provoke thought and discussion about the aftermath, in any number of war-termination scenarios. For arguments sake, we posit there is armed conflict, likely involving the full myriad of forces from the United States, Taiwan, and the People's Republic of China, and may or may not include allies, partners, or other third nations.
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  Dec 9, 2020

  Exposed: Commanding in the Gray Zone During COVID-19

  Commanders must look beyond the single event or operation, understand how their decisions affect the overall campaign within the gray zone, and then measure and accept risks accordingly.
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  Dec 9, 2020

  The Economics of Repression: The Belt and Road Initiative, COVID-19, and the Repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang

  To gain a comprehensive understanding of the developments in Xinjiang, it is vital to track and identify the effects of the Belt and Road Initiative and COVID-19 on Beijing's repression of China's Uyghur minority.

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  Dec 18, 2020

  Legitimizing and Operationalizing US Lawfare: The Successful Pursuit of Decisive Legal Combat in the South China Sea

  This article provides a recommended definition of lawfare, contrasts the United States’ and China’s use of lawfare in the South China Sea, and discusses potential options for the United States’ strategic legitimization and operationalization of lawfare.
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  Aug 31, 2020

  Avoiding Thucydides’ Trap in the Western Pacific through the Air Domain

  Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has arguably exercised the most powerful global military imbalance the world has ever seen. This domination; however, is perceived to be fading in the wake of a new possible contender. The tension and likelihood of conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China has risen in recent decades. The inevitability of conflict has taken root in many academic and strategic forums. The term “Thucydides’ Trap” has echoed in many discussions among leading strategic, military, intelligence, and political science analysts.

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  Nov 24, 2020

  Space Entanglements: The India–Pakistan Rivalry and a US–China Security Dilemma

  The proliferation of space technologies to middle and regional powers raises new questions concerning contemporary international politics and the likelihood of war. Since China launched its infamous 2007 antisatellite missile test, the United States has grown increasingly concerned about the number of actors able to access these capabilities and their potential to complicate the situation on the ground during times of political and military tension. The following classroom activity was designed as a part of the Space Education Working Group at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama. It ponders one potential future in which a spark in the India–Pakistan rivalry over Kashmir, accompanied by the potential use of space weaponry, might generate contagion for a US–China conflict. After reading the fictional case, students are provided with roles and questions to assist them in better understanding the international political impacts of space militarization.

More Sci-fi as Strategy