China vs. India at the Line of Actual Control: Implications for the Indo-Pacific

Topic Sponsor: PACAF

A study on the geostrategic, political, and military implications of the continued standoff between China and India, including lessons learned of the PRC’s handling of the situation through military actions, media communications, and world politics.

• Agnihotri, Gp. Capt., Prashant, "Shared Situational and Domain Awareness (SSDA) as an Initial Framework for Strengthening Quad," AWC SSP 2022, 32 pgs. 
  • addresses the broader geostrategic and informational implications of China's regional belligerence toward India and other Indo-Pacific democracies. The paper highlights that China handles regional standoffs by utilizing a "Three Warfares" strategy—which relies heavily on legal, psychological, and information/media operations—to conduct offensive peacetime campaigns and manipulate world politics without triggering outright war. To counter China's aggressive actions and narrative manipulation, the paper recommends that India overcome its historical non-ally status by deeply integrating its Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities with the United States and the Quad to establish a unified deterrent against the PRC.
• Cornett Lt. Col., John W., "Bomber Task Force to India: A New Deterrent Look," AF Fellows (Stimson Center), 2021, 32 pgs. 
  • explores the geostrategic and military implications of the ongoing border disputes between China and India by evaluating how the United States can leverage this regional friction to deter Chinese aggression. Recognizing that India refuses to participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and faces direct military challenges from the PRC, the author suggests that the U.S. should actively partner with India by deploying a Bomber Task Force (BTF) to the country. The paper argues that this military action would serve as a strategic counterbalance against China's grand strategy, challenging the PRC across diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) domains and forcing Beijing to reassess its aggressive geopolitical moves close to its own borders.
• Crespo, Lt. Col. Jose L., "It Takes Three to Tango: India Must Turn West," AWC SSP, 2025, 36 pgs.  
  • This research assesses the geostrategic, political, and military implications of the continued standoff, specifically highlighting how ongoing disputes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Chinese military assertiveness in the Himalayas threaten Indian security and regional influence. Politically and militarily, the paper argues that the persistence of this conflict makes India's historical policy of non-alignment dangerously unsustainable. The author concludes that to counterbalance China's expansion and secure its own position as a rising power in a multipolar world, India must leverage its strategic autonomy by deepening military and diplomatic alignments with the United States and other Western partner.
• Crouch, Maj. Daniel W., "Rethinking Nuclear Crisis Management," ACSC 2022, 60 pgs. 
  • addresses the military and political implications of the Sino-Indian border conflict by utilizing the 2017 Doklam Standoff as a primary case study for crisis management between nuclear-armed powers. The research examines how Indian troops crossed into contested territory to block Chinese construction forces, resulting in an extended, two-month standoff characterized by casualties and aggressive rhetoric. Regarding the PRC's handling of the situation, the paper notes that despite the tensions, Chinese leadership—specifically President Xi Jinping—managed the crisis by avoiding risk-seeking behavior, relying on diplomatic engagements, and utilizing pre-existing communication networks rather than escalating the conflict. Ultimately, the paper draws the lesson that establishing robust diplomatic procedures and historical norms for de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control successfully prevented the border clash from spiraling into a broader conventional or nuclear war.
• Ellis, Maj. Lauren, "The Tiger and the Dragon: India's Role in Sinking China's Invasion of Taiwan," ACSC paper (PACAF RTF), 2024, 38 pgs. 
  • ​​​​​​​This paper addresses the geostrategic and political implications of the China-India dynamic by exploring how India can collaborate with the United States to counterbalance China's global influence. Operating under the assumption that India is unlikely to directly participate in a military intervention to aid Taiwan and the U.S. against China, Ellis identifies alternative areas where India could still significantly impact China's preparations for an invasion offensive. Specifically, the paper highlights that India can exert considerable influence through intelligence gathering, reducing economic dependency, enhancing energy security, and fostering technological innovation. Ultimately, the research emphasizes that these strategic partnerships and collaborative efforts are necessary to mitigate China's dominance and safeguard global interests.
• Hofferman, Maj. Nathan R., "India: A Stabilizing Partner to Ensure a Free and Open Indo-Pacific," Air Force Fellows paper, 2021, 25 pgs.
  • answers the question by examining the Sino-Indian strategic rivalry within the broader context of Indo-Pacific geostrategic competition and world politics. While focusing heavily on the US-India partnership, the paper explores the military and political lessons learned from China's aggressive regional behavior, such as its Belt and Road Initiative and territorial disputes, which consistently raise the question of whether India and China are "destined for war". To counter China's coercive military and diplomatic tactics, the author recommends that the United States deeply integrate with India and leverage multilateral alliances like the Quad to maintain regional stability.
• Kitzke, Lt. Col. Nathan, "Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean," AWC RSS, 2023, 9 pgs. 
  • addresses the geostrategic and political implications of the China-India standoff through the lens of maritime security and global trade. The paper analyzes China's handling of world politics and regional influence via its Belt and Road Initiative, "debt-trap" diplomacy, and the expanding military presence of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the Indian Ocean. Kitzke points out that China leverages these economic and military actions to shape regional narratives around its energy security (the "Malacca Dilemma") and to exert control over local governments' domestic policies. To offset China's expanding power, the author argues that India and the United States must collaborate on defense production and strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
• Kurka, Maj. Jacob J., "What Can the United States Learn from the People's Republic of China's Information Operation Campaigns against the World's Largest Democracy?" GCPME thesis, 2025, 33 pgs.
  • ​​​​​​​This paper directly addresses the PRC’s handling of the standoff through media communications and information operations. Kurka analyzes the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) influence campaigns during the military standoff in Galwan, detailing how China used fabricated materials and state-sponsored media to paint India as the aggressor and undermine the credibility of Indian leadership. By examining these media and political maneuvers, the paper evaluates the lessons learned from the PRC's tactics, assessing the effectiveness of India's countermeasures (such as education strategies and legislation) to determine how the United States and its allies can thwart similar Chinese influence operations in world politics.
• Pohare, Wg. Comm. Shivkumar N., "Enhancing India's Defense Cooperation with QUAD Countries by LEveraging the Geographical Potential of Andaman and Nicobar Islands," SAASS thesis, 2023, 111 pgs.  
  • Pohare examines the military and geostrategic implications of the standoff by analyzing border disputes in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, asserting that skirmishes along the LAC demonstrate China's strategy of using military pressure to extract political concessions on broader issues. To effectively counter China's "salami slicing" territorial tactics and overall hegemonic ambitions in world politics, the paper draws strategic lessons for Indian force posture. It recommends a hybrid approach of internal and external balancing, arguing that India must leverage the geostrategic advantage of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands while integrating air and naval exercises with Quad partners to secure the broader Indo-Pacific region.
• Ranes, Maj. Jackson, "Domestic Pressures for Chinese Expansionism: Rising China and What America Should Do about It," ACSC EL 2020, 12 pgs. 
  • briefly answers the question by situating China’s territorial disputes with India within the larger context of Chinese domestic pressures and expansionist world politics. The paper explains that China’s aggressive military and diplomatic handling of regional hotspots—including border disputes with India, assertions over Taiwan, and crackdowns in Hong Kong—are fundamentally driven by the Chinese Communist Party's internal vulnerabilities and its ambition to revise the international rules-based order. The author concludes that understanding these internal political motivations is essential for the US to formulate strategies that strengthen Indo-Pacific alliances and effectively counter Chinese coercion.
• Sharma, Grp. Capt. Manish (Indian AF), "Sino-India Border Dispute: An Inherited Tangle," AWC Strategic Studies paper, 2018, 31 pgs. 
  • ​​​​​​​answers the question by directly analyzing the geostrategic, political, and military implications of the ongoing territorial conflicts between the two nations, specifically highlighting the tense ten-week military standoff in 2017. The paper evaluates how China handles the situation through a combination of military skirmishes and a "diplomatic war of nerves" to continuously pressure India. In the realm of world politics, Sharma emphasizes that China's "String of Pearls" maritime strategy and its resistance to the US-led unipolar world order demonstrate its use of the border dispute as a calculated tool to distract India from broader regional power struggles and secure Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific