This article was published as part of the cooperation between CASI and the Japanese Air Self Defense Force's Air and Space Studies Institute (JASI)
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has conducted nine “combined strategic aerial patrols” with the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) since 2019.1 Until 2024, the areas where Chinese military aircraft flew during the combined patrols as well as the PLAAF units that participated in the patrols barely changed until 2024, but both these changed greatly in that year. This paper will examine the reason for these changes. First, by analyzing the combined patrols, it will be shown that a combined patrol in November 2024 was a clear nuclear threat against the USA. Next, two hypotheses about why China acted so unusually during the patrols of 2024 will be examined and compared. As a result, it will be concluded that the combined patrols were part of China’s effort to complete its nuclear deterrence capability, but it will be discovered that the information substantiating the hypothesis that China intended to send a political signal through the combined patrols is key to understanding China’s perception of the nuclear threat to itself.
Read the full article in English at: www.mod.go.jp/asdf/meguro/center/Eimg/EJASIreport20250630.pdf
Read the full article in Japanese at: www.mod.go.jp/asdf/meguro/center/img/JASIreport20250630.pdf