The Disruptive Impact of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems Diffusion: Modern Melians and the Dawn of Robotic Warriors by Austin Wyatt. Routledge, 2022, 248 pp.
“It’s the quiet ones you must watch out for.” This idiom could not be more relevant in characterizing Austin Wyatt’s monograph on the proliferation of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). He observes that most scholarly works in this area focus on the great power states: the United States and China. The quiet ones—middle-power states residing below a hegemon yet wielding regional influence—receive far less attention than they deserve. Just as the Melians of antiquity were caught in the power rivalry between Sparta and Athens, these modern Melians find themselves embroiled in the great power competition between the United States and China. Wyatt argues that the spread of LAWS will be broader than other major military innovations due to the lower resource barrier to entry. This is particularly true in the Southeast Asian security environment.
The Disruptive Impact of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems Diffusion is one component of a larger five-volume series exploring emerging technology through the lens of moral, ethical, legal, political, and policy considerations. Wyatt currently serves as a researcher for RAND Australia and has held research positions at University New South Wales in Canberra, Australia, and the Australian Catholic University.
The book opens with a highly detailed and engaging historical overview of unmanned weapons system development, focusing on the land, air, and maritime domains. This history emphasizes human-controlled unmanned platforms as the precursor to LAWS, providing context for Wyatt’s thesis. Building upon this foundation, Wyatt explores the fundamental definition of LAWS, recognizing that despite considerable debate, “there is no universally agreed definition,” which is also acknowledged by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (16).1 Supported by multiple credible sources, including the US Department of Defense, he presents a succinct definition based on his previous work while avoiding the minutiae within the larger debate of this subject.
The book’s most profound contributions revolve around Wyatt’s detailing of major factors for Indonesia’s and Singapore’s potential for embracing LAWS. His analysis details civilian, governmental, and military perspectives primarily through the lens of Michael Horowitz’s adoption-capacity theory—the idea that military innovations proliferate based on financial resource requirements and the scale of organizational change necessary to implement the innovation.2 Indonesia and Singapore are both considered middle-power states despite notable civilian and military organizational differences. Wyatt masterfully draws out the experiential distinctions between them that produce contrasting examples of LAWS diffusion potential. The analysis in both cases is highly detailed and credibly sourced, and it even considers less apparent aspects such as national culture, a factor that unquestionably influences military innovation.
Wyatt asserts that LAWS will proliferate significantly beyond great power states due to their lower resource barrier to entry than other major military innovations. While the autonomous portion may be inexpensive, applying it to technologies that will enable middle countries such as Indonesia and Singapore to impact the Southeast Asian security environment will still be costly. This is particularly relevant when considering systems of operational and strategic significance, including long-range/long-endurance unmanned aircraft and maritime vessels, hypersonic weapons, and space-based capabilities.
In the book’s opening, Wyatt cites an example of a point-defense gun system, a tactical-level system that is significantly cheaper and less complex to integrate with autonomous functionality. Such systems are certainly relevant to the security requirements of middle-power states even if their impact is more local in nature. The autonomous portion of LAWS ultimately requires integration into new platforms or retrofitting onto existing lethal weapon systems. Chapter five presents the fundamental statement that at its core, an autonomous weapon system is a “computer that analyzes data input from multiple conventional sensors to inform its actions” (86).
The book’s greatest limitation is that it is a snapshot in time within a field where technological evolution is occurring at lightning pace. Wyatt himself notes that in the past three years the world has witnessed the proliferation and evolution of generative artificial intelligence (AI) models. Taking this one step further, he also observes that AI-enabled information warfare tools are potentially “impactful for militaries to use in shaping the decision space of competitor’s policy makers.”3 Systems fitting this category already operate within the information environment, broadly influencing populations and demographics globally to spread specific messaging or, more concerningly, to weaponize divisiveness. Their application and development in military spheres are unquestionable. This limitation does not diminish the value of his work; it is simply context that must be acknowledged.
Publicly acknowledged AI systems have not yet matured enough to safely integrate into LAWS, but their capabilities are demonstrably evolving at a rapid pace. When combined with another area Wyatt notes—loitering munitions—the demonstration phase for a lethally autonomous future is very near, absent any major breakthroughs in international or even regional regulation.4 The overall absence of any meaningfully significant development in this area and the challenges such development faces are themes Wyatt covers in detail within his book. They also represent areas that remain underdeveloped.
Continued development in robotics and AI will enable weapon systems to operate with increasing precision and decreasing human management. Increases in edge computing power and network bandwidth allow formations of systems to function in a highly coordinated manner, elevating their battlefield impact. The allure of bringing about the dawn of robotic warriors by nation-states seeking to harness this battlefield impact to achieve national security objectives elevates the importance of dialogue on this subject.
Wyatt’s treatise on autonomous weapon systems is therefore an admirable contribution to a growing body of scholarly literature in this field. It is worth the time it takes to consume the book’s 200 or so pages, and The Disruptive Impact would be of particular interest to civilian and military professionals throughout the global security enterprise. The focus is on Southeast Asia; however, the conclusions can inform similar discussions in other regions. Additionally, the easily digestible analyses on Indonesia and Singapore should make this work valuable to anyone with a specific interest in these two middle-power states.
Lieutenant Colonel Joshua Goldfarb, USAF
2 Michael Horowitz, “The Diffusion of Military Power: Causes and
Consequences for International Politics” (dissertation, Harvard University, 2007).
3 Andrew Wyatt, email communication with author, 6 March 2025.